Pioneer of the Nile

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I realize no horse is worth 100 mil "at once".. I also know that 100k for 100 mares a year for 10 years is a real # if you get very lucky..You think Zayat decided to put 100mil into racing over the last 4 years to make money or lose some and fly around from track to track with his family and have some fun? I don't know for sure but why a successful buisnessman would choose gambling on race horses as a means to earn is subject at best.
Other then Scav who's talent is unmistaken(lol), anyone ever come up to you and tell you with a straight face they KNOW the recipe for earning buying high profile yearlings or highly touted 2 year ols in training..It's diaster 101 risk 600k on a yearling because some dude tells you he is made well and has a nice page etc. and the frog that sold 12 minutes before the one you bought becomes Smarty Jones?

Who exactly has done this? You have a better chance of hitting the lottery than finding one of those.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Who exactly has done this? You have a better chance of hitting the lottery than finding one of those.

Why do you say that. There are at least 20 horses worldwide in this league(save Japan). 10 in this Ky. As for Europe I would GUESS there are at least 8 and Australia has 2 or 3.. It's not like it doesn't happen. Even 10 years at 50 is a big time earner.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Why do you say that. There are at least 20 horses worldwide in this league(save Japan). 10 in this Ky. As for Europe I would GUESS there are at least 8 and Australia has 2 or 3.. It's not like it doesn't happen. Even 10 years at 50 is a big time earner.

So out of the 60000 or so horses born a year worldwide, on average there is about one or two a year?

[freddymo]

I think that of the 60k born only 20k are realistically capable of being such a horse

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I think that of the 60k born only 20k are realistically capable of being such a horse

I would say about 3k but who is counting?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I would say about 3k but who is counting?

if it is only 3k then getting 30 of the 3k gives you a 1% chance in striking gold. Figure it would cost 200k per horse on average so a 6mil investment gets you a 1% shot at a 75mil earner. BUT the 6 mil invest has some inherit value as you will earn something back on some of the horses. If you are right that it is only 3k such horses getting 30 for 6 mil isn't a horrible business plan,,

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

if it is only 3k then getting 30 of the 3k gives you a 1% chance in striking gold. Figure it would cost 200k per horse on average so a 6mil investment gets you a 1% shot at a 75mil earner. BUT the 6 mil invest has some inherit value as you will earn something back on some of the horses. If you are right that it is only 3k such horses getting 30 for 6 mil isn't a horrible business plan,,

However of those 3k how many are available to be purchased? The odds are still monumentally long that any of those 3000 make it.