9/5 (SAR): Woodward (G1)

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Gander

I dont see what the morning line odds matter one bit. First thing is that its only one person's opinion and second thing is the amount of money that will be bet on Rachel purely because of her notoriety is insane. If you were to analyze this race strictly on numbers and data, and assigned letters to each horse instead of names and "reputations", she would be a lot higher than the probable 2/5 she will be sent off at. She would probably be in the neighborhood of even money or 6/5 if you took the names away.

Why would a horse be great or not great based on the morning line odds? Or even the actual odds for that matter? Is it her fault she has this huge following and this race just happens to occur at Saratoga, a place where the pools are already huge and filled with money from people who only bet a couple times per year?

I mean would she be great if she was the more appropriate 6/5 in this spot, beating these same horses?

It has nothing to do with her "greatness" or any measure of it. It has to do with the fact that she is an overwhelming fav over the field she is facing. Running a overwhelming fav doesnt make you bold in my opinion. It makes you smart. This is a pretty logical spot for her as was the Haskell. The fact that it is against males is interesting and a bit historic but come on, this isnt like taking on Mike Tyson his his prime.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

It has nothing to do with her "greatness" or any measure of it. It has to do with the fact that she is an overwhelming fav over the field she is facing. Running a overwhelming fav doesnt make you bold in my opinion. It makes you smart. This is a pretty logical spot for her as was the Haskell. The fact that it is against males is interesting and a bit historic but come on, this isnt like taking on Mike Tyson his his prime.

Here's an example of taking a risk: In 1990, Bayakoa, having already won a BC Distaff and Eclipse award and already assured of another Eclipse, was supplemented to the race again and shipped all the way across country to face 3/5 favorite Go for Wand on that one's home track. That's bold. Running a horse that's an overwhelming favorite, whether it's 1/2 or 6/5, is not bold.

[Smooth Operator]

Author makes some good points in that ESPN article ... and doesn't even mention the fact that EB didn't survive her rendezvous in the Derby ... and the fact that R2R was pretty much finished after her all-out effort in the '07 Belmont.



Can understand why RA is the ML fav in this weekend's contest

Not sure why some consider her such an "overwhelming" fav, tho...

Originally Posted by Smooth Operator

Author makes some good points in that ESPN article ... and doesn't even mention the fact that EB didn't survive her rendezvous in the Derby ... and the fact that R2R was pretty much finished after her all-out effort in the '07 Belmont.



Can understand why RA is the ML fav in this weekend's contest

Not sure why some consider her such an "overwhelming" fav, tho...

You should take your S&P earnings and invest in this...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LASIK

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

It has nothing to do with her "greatness" or any measure of it. It has to do with the fact that she is an overwhelming fav over the field she is facing. Running a overwhelming fav doesnt make you bold in my opinion. It makes you smart. This is a pretty logical spot for her as was the Haskell. The fact that it is against males is interesting and a bit historic but come on, this isnt like taking on Mike Tyson his his prime.

Chuck nothing has been logical in her campaign. They bought a filly for a pile of money. Instead of keeping her in company that brought her to a race that she whipped the KY Derby winner, Santa Deby winner running by far the toughest race. Then they go back to the girls were she is suppose to race and she crushes albeit zero but she crushes. Then off to the HASKELL and when has this been the logical next step for the Oak's and Goose winner? She beats the Belmont winner who comes back to validate his Grade 1 abilty with a strong winning run in the Travers. So back to her logical campaign after the Haskell they prep a 3 year old filly to race against older handicapped horse. UHM how the F is that logical? You are confussing logic from giving your superstar every opportunity to do what very few of her breed have ever attempted nevermind succeeded at. You want to suggest that you feel that as a horseman and given your take on Rachel's abilty that you feel she will have no problem handling older handicap horses and that while this is rare it speaks to both her immense abilty and the subpar nature of the current handicap division fine , but logical NO that simply is a very poor characterization.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Chuck nothing has been logical in her campaign. They bought a filly for a pile of money. Instead of keeping her in company that brought her to a race that she whipped the KY Derby winner, Santa Deby winner running by far the toughest race. Then they go back to the girls were she is suppose to race and she crushes albeit zero but she crushes. Then off to the HASKELL and when has this been the logical next step for the Oak's and Goose winner? She beats the Belmont winner who comes back to validate his Grade 1 abilty with a strong winning run in the Travers. So back to her logical campaign after the Haskell they prep a 3 year old filly to race against older handicapped horse. UHM how the F is that logical? You are confussing logic from giving your superstar every opportunity to do what very few of her breed have ever attempted nevermind succeeded at. You want to suggest that you feel that as a horseman and given your take on Rachel's abilty that you feel she will have no problem handling older handicap horses and that while this is rare it speaks to both her immense abilty and the subpar nature of the current handicap division fine , but logical NO that simply is a very poor characterization.

It is logical to run in the best races for the most money when you have the best horse. When is the last time a 3 yo filly was clearly the best horse in the country in May of her three year old year? Please explain to me why running a horse in a spot where she is clearly the best horse and in fine shape physically not a logical idea? Her being a three year old filly makes it unusual however the Woodward is the best spot for her to not only run and win but to complete a theoretical checklist of her owners aspirations. If Seattle Slew and Affirmed were in this years version of the Woodward I would say that this would not be a logical spot. Not to mention they have the reay made excuse that she is tired from a long campaign (check out Jacksons comments) and that she is taking on older horses. Why wouldnt the Woodward be a logical spot?

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

i think they have pointed her perfectly..she wins here then..only then they try the bc.and shut up the zenyatta bs. how in the world can people even put those two on the same page in the hoy. todd t shrupp said that the voters are "east coast biased" wtf? she has done everything from win the oaks take on the boys win and now the older ones too.. if she wins id love to see her go to the bc just to shut up the fruit n nutz crowd that is saying
zenyatta is in the same zipcode as her..fn please

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

It is logical to run in the best races for the most money when you have the best horse. When is the last time a 3 yo filly was clearly the best horse in the country in May of her three year old year? Please explain to me why running a horse in a spot where she is clearly the best horse and in fine shape physically not a logical idea? Her being a three year old filly makes it unusual however the Woodward is the best spot for her to not only run and win but to complete a theoretical checklist of her owners aspirations. If Seattle Slew and Affirmed were in this years version of the Woodward I would say that this would not be a logical spot. Not to mention they have the reay made excuse that she is tired from a long campaign (check out Jacksons comments) and that she is taking on older horses. Why wouldnt the Woodward be a logical spot?

When has it ever been? Races are written specific for females so that they compete against their own kind. Now if money was the issue why wouldn't she run in the Penn Derby. Imagine her odds in that dog biscuit race. When you are the best horse in the land(dirt) every race is logical because you are the most likely winner. So I guess your contention is mute because every single 9f dirt race in America is a logical spot for her. I guess when you are the best horse regardless of gender you become the most logical horse in the country.

As for Jess's aspirations...who cares I don't give a dam all I want is to see his filly race and in spots that can hopefully make her maximize her gift. So if Jess and his checklist don't get in the way of that then I hope he continues to push the envelope.. Your issue is you don't think they are pushing the envelope at all.To the contrary, you believe that Jess and friends are orchestratiing a fraud like campaign. One which is overrated and over hyped. I suggest they are pushing a 3 year old filly as hard and tough as sanely acceptable.
Now Zenyatta who I adore as well is a kept managed and potential fraud of a champion. Racing suffers because of Sheriffs and his million and 1 excuses for not shipping.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

When has it ever been? Races are written specific for females so that they compete against their own kind. Now if money was the issue why wouldn't she run in the Penn Derby. Imagine her odds in that dog biscuit race. When you are the best horse in the land(dirt) every race is logical because you are the most likely winner. So I guess your contention is mute because every single 9f dirt race in America is a logical spot for her. I guess when you are the best horse regardless of gender you become the most logical horse in the country.

As for Jess's aspirations...who cares I don't give a dam all I want is to see his filly race and in spots that can hopefully make her maximize her gift. So if Jess and his checklist don't get in the way of that then I hope he continues to push the envelope.. Your issue is you don't think they are pushing the envelope at all.To the contrary, you believe that Jess and friends are orchestratiing a fraud like campaign. One which is overrated and over hyped. I suggest they are pushing a 3 year old filly as hard and tough as sanely acceptable.
Now Zenyatta who I adore as well is a kept managed and potential fraud of a champion. Racing suffers because of Sheriffs and his million and 1 excuses for not shipping.

At no point did I say anything like that. People here love to put words in the mouth of others. If I put forth a scenario where Summer Bird captures horse of the year it isnt a knock on the filly. It is simply a scenario.

Freddy you need to get a grip. The strange set of circumstances that have taken place make the Woodward the ideal spot to run this horse. Is that a better word? There has never been a three year old dirt filly that was clearly the best horse in America at this point. The Woodward accomplishes everything that Jackson wants to do just as the Haskell made her the clear leader in the HoY race and established her as the best horse in the country regardless of sex or age. The Penn Derby isnt even a grade 1. The Woodward has prestige despite the obviously subpar field facing the filly. Not to mention avoids going an unknown distance of 1 1/4 and also avoids a further confrontation with horses she has already beaten. It is simply a logical spot.

As for your contention that I am saying that her campaign is a fraud,I have no idea where you get that. What I am saying is that it is easier to push the envelope when you are facing moderate competition that makes you an odds on choice everytime. I think that the race will be interesting with her in it. I also think that she will win and it will be her last race of the year. her campaign next year will be interesting to say the least. Of course if JJ had racings best interests in mind he would plot out his races beforehand and let the public know where she will run as opposed to all this secretive bs that he does now.

[CSC]

I don't know what it is Chuck, but to intimate that another horse can beat Rachel is almost like you are insulting Christ on this forum. I was really in the weeds at work today and really I shouldn't have been posting but I had to defend myself for simply believing that Summer Bird could beat Rachel Alexandra if they ever met again. It's truly mindboggling around here.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

At no point did I say anything like that. People here love to put words in the mouth of others. If I put forth a scenario where Summer Bird captures horse of the year it isnt a knock on the filly. It is simply a scenario.

Freddy you need to get a grip. The strange set of circumstances that have taken place make the Woodward the ideal spot to run this horse. Is that a better word? There has never been a three year old dirt filly that was clearly the best horse in America at this point. The Woodward accomplishes everything that Jackson wants to do just as the Haskell made her the clear leader in the HoY race and established her as the best horse in the country regardless of sex or age. The Penn Derby isnt even a grade 1. The Woodward has prestige despite the obviously subpar field facing the filly. Not to mention avoids going an unknown distance of 1 1/4 and also avoids a further confrontation with horses she has already beaten. It is simply a logical spot.

As for your contention that I am saying that her campaign is a fraud,I have no idea where you get that. What I am saying is that it is easier to push the envelope when you are facing moderate competition that makes you an odds on choice everytime. I think that the race will be interesting with her in it. I also think that she will win and it will be her last race of the year. her campaign next year will be interesting to say the least. Of course if JJ had racings best interests in mind he would plot out his races beforehand and let the public know where she will run as opposed to all this secretive bs that he does now.

The Preakness was ideal, The Haskell and it's strange set of circumtances was ideal, and ole and behold the prestigous Woodward is now ideal. What a wonderful stroke of luck for Rachel and Jess. The noise doesn't mean sheit to me. All I care about is her performance. I hope he crushes in the Woodward. I hope the nay sayers then go after the lack of a quality field. I hope she heads to Belmont after the Woodward and races in the Beldame.. I am quite sure that she has HoY locked up with a Woodward win. There is nothing any horse can do to spot her from winning that if she wins the Woodward.

I don't think you have ever given the filly just due. I think you have let your disdain of the connections taint your objectivity. What could be in your posts is representations of just how special she is in relation to the 10's of thousands of horses you have been around.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

The Preakness was ideal, The Haskell and it's strange set of circumtances was ideal, and ole and behold the prestigous Woodward is now ideal. What a wonderful stroke of luck for Rachel and Jess. The noise doesn't mean sheit to me. All I care about is her performance. I hope he crushes in the Woodward. I hope the nay sayers then go after the lack of a quality field. I hope she heads to Belmont after the Woodward and races in the Beldame.. I am quite sure that she has HoY locked up with a Woodward win. There is nothing any horse can do to spot her from winning that if she wins the Woodward.

I don't think you have ever given the filly just due. I think you have let your disdain of the connections taint your objectivity. What could be in your posts is representations of just how special she is in relation to the 10's of thousands of horses you have been around.

The Preakness was a balsy move. Which is something I have posted here. The other races were logical.
I have not given the filly her due? Since when? When exactly have I knocked her. What about the times where i called her a truly great horse? How many times have I said that about a horse in the current era? I am seemingly one of the few who ARE being objective about the horse.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

It has nothing to do with her "greatness" or any measure of it. It has to do with the fact that she is an overwhelming fav over the field she is facing. Running a overwhelming fav doesnt make you bold in my opinion. It makes you smart. This is a pretty logical spot for her as was the Haskell. The fact that it is against males is interesting and a bit historic but come on, this isnt like taking on Mike Tyson his his prime.

Aside from running on the turf or Synthetic, what dirt race is out there right now that RA wouldn't be an overwhelming favorite?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

Aside from running on the turf or Synthetic, what dirt race is out there right now that RA wouldn't be an overwhelming favorite?

Which is exactly my point. So when people say how courageous it is of Jackson to run in the Woodward remember that.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Which is exactly my point. So when people say how courageous it is of Jackson to run in the Woodward remember that.

Funny way of expressing your admiration for Rachel.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Funny way of expressing your admiration for Rachel.

What does this say negative? That she would be odds on against any field on the dirt? How do you construe negativty about the horse from that? Did you forget your meds today?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

What does this say negative? That she would be odds on against any field on the dirt? How do you construe negativty about the horse from that? Did you forget your meds today?

A.. Stop with logical it is not becoming.
B. you are dealing with a once in a generation horse this isnt my beloved Smarty Jones this is a premier rocket

[freddymo]

Hi may name is Cannon Shell/Iagree that Rachel is a superior horse..Not sure I have seen a filly asgood as her since PE.. This girl is a freak she refuses to lose..

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

A.. Stop with logical it is not becoming.
B. you are dealing with a once in a generation horse this isnt my beloved Smarty Jones this is a premier rocket

You continue to make my point for me. If you are in charge of a once in a generation horse why wouldnt the Haskell and Woodward be logical spots? You do understand the meaning of logical dont you? Or maybe i will put it to you in a different manner. What is illogical about her competing in those races?