"Spaced" Races And "Fresh" Horses Are Killing The Sport

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Something has obviously changed over the last 40 years. I've been really into racing for about 25 years. One of the first things I learned as a handicapper was not to bet horses that were overraced and/or coming back too quickly. It took me a couple of years to figure that out. I would see a really good horse break their maiden first-time out and then they'd come back around 15 days later in an allowance race that they should win easily. I would see these horses get beat time and time again.

That's a real "DUH!" example.

Why should a maiden winner be favored in his first race against horses who previously won at the same level ... and have had more experience since then?

It's very difficult for all but the most talented horses to move up to the next level and win right away. Do you think those horses would have had any better chance in the new, higher condition if they had waited another couple of weeks to try it?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite

That's a real "DUH!" example.

Why should a maiden winner be favored in his first race against horses who previously won at the same level ... and have had more experience since then?

It's very difficult for all but the most talented horses to move up to the next level and win right away. Do you think those horses would have had any better chance in the new, higher condition if they had waited another couple of weeks to try it?

Yes, absolutely. The extra time makes all the difference in the world. By the way, I'm not talking about your average first-time out maiden winner. I'm talking about when you see an obvious stakes horse that wins first-time out. You need to be able to recognize the difference. You have to have a good enough eye to tell a Discreet Cat apart from a Dr. Pleasure. When you see a great horse that wins first-time out, he's generally not going to have any problem winning that first-level allowance race as long as he's given enough time to recuperate. A lot of these horses are not worth betting even if they are given enough time because they often go off at 3-5.