Mine That Bird

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I get it, so what you're saying is that a filly who's perfect on the year, has beaten males twice, scored in a field of 13, has an on the pace running style that keeps her free from trouble and a jockey who cut his teeth at bush tracks in Louisiana is susceptible to all types of hypthetical trip problems. Gotcha.

And if through some confluence of events making all the things you mentioned above happen then a horse who has basically one race of consequence which was run at a distance that suited him to a T can reverse a decision in which he was beaten like a drum by the filly in question. Gotcha.

So you're saying she'd be a cinch in the Travers?

Regardless of how impressive her last two efforts were, there's no question in my mind that the Travers would be her most challenging assignment to date. Quality Road is probably the most talented male in this crop. Even if he's not up to winning this off one prep race, he plays a huge role in the outcome of the race. With a legitimate pace (very likely with Our Edge and Quality Road), the race could set up for either of the Birds if they run their "A" race. In particular, I agree with Freddy that Summer Bird should be expected to improve significantly off his Haskell. He pressed the pace, not his most effective running style, on the worst part of the Monmouth track on Haskell Day. And it's not like Rachel beat Mine That Bird "like a drum" in the Preakness. The added distance and more quality speed (as opposed to Big Drama who, with only one 2009 start and various pre-race antics, was done at the half-mile pole in the Preakness) could certainly aid his cause, if he's 100% after last week's surgery.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

So you're saying she'd be a cinch in the Travers?

Regardless of how impressive her last two efforts were, there's no question in my mind that the Travers would be her most challenging assignment to date. Quality Road is probably the most talented male in this crop. Even if he's not up to winning this off one prep race, he plays a huge role in the outcome of the race. With a legitimate pace (very likely with Our Edge and Quality Road), the race could set up for either of the Birds if they run their "A" race. In particular, I agree with Freddy that Summer Bird should be expected to improve significantly off his Haskell. He pressed the pace, not his most effective running style, on the worst part of the Monmouth track on Haskell Day. And it's not like Rachel beat Mine That Bird "like a drum" in the Preakness. The added distance and more quality speed (as opposed to Big Drama who, with only one 2009 start and various pre-race antics, was done at the half-mile pole in the Preakness) could certainly aid his cause, if he's 100% after last week's surgery.

I wasn't referring to her beating MTB like a drum but Summer Bird. I think the excuses about Summer Bird's trip at Monmouth have some validity but everyone's forgetting that he gamely held on over a stretched-out sprinter, a confirmed mediocrity in Papa Clem and Duke of Mischief.

I never said the Travers was a foregone conclusion, not in any way, shape or form. I am certainly willing to listen to anybody who wants to bet against her, but excuses like, she might get into trouble, her jockey might be intimidated, or she might race in traffic are kind of a waste of time in my opinion.

Let me just say this as well, I've been a Quality Road guy since shortly after the third race on November 29 last year, but everyone is putting him on this monstrous pedestal and I really think he could be in line to be very disappointing in the Travers. A 10 furlong race 2nd off an injury-induced layoff is a tall order. I hope we can see him and Rachel square off.

NT

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I hope we can see him and Rachel square off.

We certainly agree on that.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I never said the Travers was a foregone conclusion, not in any way, shape or form. I am certainly willing to listen to anybody who wants to bet against her, but excuses like, she might get into trouble, her jockey might be intimidated, or she might race in traffic are kind of a waste of time in my opinion.

NT

Just to clarify, I didn't mean Borel would be intimdated, which would be a ridiculous statement. Anyone who has seen Calvin ride knows he is the anthesisis of Mike Smith. What I mean't is she is obviously the horse most if not all the Jockies are watching and it wouldn't be a stretch if she is the marked horse in the field, an example of this happening was what happened to Cigar when Nakatani put Dramatic Gold into the race to beat him, which is certainly a possibilty next Saturday if we get what we all want to see.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by CSC

Just to clarify, I didn't mean Borel would be intimdated, which would be a ridiculous statement. Anyone who has seen Calvin ride knows he is the anthesis of Mike Smith. What I mean't is she is obviously the horse most if not all the Jockies are watching and it wouldn't be a stretch if she is the marked horse in the field, an example of this happening was what happened to Cigar when Nakatani put Dramatic Gold into the race to beat him, which is certainly a possibilty next Saturday if we get what we all want to see.

I understand and certainly concur that this is a valid point.

I found Bailey's insight about Cigar in his interview on TVG Legends a couple of years ago really interesting. When talking about the Pacific Classic Bailey admitted that he asked Cigar to do something even he was not capable of, which was to hook Siphon and stay on.

The funny thing about that, which I thought of right away, was that did Bailey really think Cigar was not capable of running down Siphon simply because Geri was unable to in the Hollywood Gold Cup? Did Bailey think that little of him? Not that Siphon was bad but it made you wonder what type of connection they had.

On the other hand, I think Borel knows exactly what Rachel's capable of and the thing about her is that she's gone about her business in a more impressive day with each passing start. She has shown such an incredible new dimension in her last two starts by rating kindly and going exactly when she was asked.

NT

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I understand and certainly concur that this is a valid point.

I found Bailey's insight about Cigar in his interview on TVG Legends a couple of years ago really interesting. When talking about the Pacific Classic Bailey admitted that he asked Cigar to do something even he was not capable of, which was to hook Siphon and stay on.

The funny thing about that, which I thought of right away, was that did Bailey really think Cigar was not capable of running down Siphon simply because Geri was unable to in the Hollywood Gold Cup? Did Bailey think that little of him? Not that Siphon was bad but it made you wonder what type of connection they had.

NT

I remembering watching that at the OTB and my first reaction was Bailey made the right move, I read his book also and I thought he was simply protecting Cigar to no fault of his. Obviously he loves this horse but being a Cigar admirer, I firmly believed he lost a step in 96. He was a great horse though, as honest as the higher power has ever made.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I wasn't referring to her beating MTB like a drum but Summer Bird. I think the excuses about Summer Bird's trip at Monmouth have some validity but everyone's forgetting that he gamely held on over a stretched-out sprinter, a confirmed mediocrity in Papa Clem and Duke of Mischief.

What's ironic is that back in the good old days, these horses would win on a regular basis for Pletcher. They'd stretch out and run HUGE. They'd get the worst trips and run HUGE. I really appreciated Kent sending SB and punishing Munnings, and, of course, Pletcher, around the track. Put a nice smile on my face. Kent is good when it comes to things of this sort. I can imagine Pletcher wondering during/after the race what he did to deserve not being able to 'step' these horses up, like he once did.

[chucklestheclown]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

What's ironic is that back in the good old days, these horses would win on a regular basis for Pletcher. They'd stretch out and run HUGE. They'd get the worst trips and run HUGE. I really appreciated Kent sending SB and punishing Munnings, and, of course, Pletcher, around the track. Put a nice smile on my face. Kent is good when it comes to things of this sort. I can imagine Pletcher wondering during/after the race what he did to deserve not being able to 'step' these horses up, like he once did.

(I just picked thhis at random to use in my reply). As a betting oppportunity, I would rather see Kensei run than Rachael. Anyone agree?

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by chucklestheclown

(I just picked thhis at random to use in my reply). As a betting oppportunity, I would rather see Kensei run than Rachael. Anyone agree?

If you are of the opinion that Quality Road is being asked for too much, Kensei is going to be a halfway decent price.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

If you are of the opinion that Quality Road is being asked for too much, Kensei is going to be a halfway decent price.

Kensei will be the second choice, how is he not?

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Kensei will be the second choice, how is he not?

what?

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

What's ironic is that back in the good old days, these horses would win on a regular basis for Pletcher. They'd stretch out and run HUGE. They'd get the worst trips and run HUGE. I really appreciated Kent sending SB and punishing Munnings, and, of course, Pletcher, around the track. Put a nice smile on my face. Kent is good when it comes to things of this sort. I can imagine Pletcher wondering during/after the race what he did to deserve not being able to 'step' these horses up, like he once did.

Can you give me some examples of these stretched out sprinters on dirt that Pletcher use to win with back in the good old days? I use to bet against those types of his all of the time (with the exception of value plus which i will wear for eternity). Looking back, I dont remember many big races at all Pletcher would win stretching out.

edit- I looked it up on his website and it looks like only left bank could be considered a horse stretching out on dirt for Pletcher that ran big. Can you think of other horses that I am missing?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I wasn't referring to her beating MTB like a drum but Summer Bird. I think the excuses about Summer Bird's trip at Monmouth have some validity but everyone's forgetting that he gamely held on over a stretched-out sprinter, a confirmed mediocrity in Papa Clem and Duke of Mischief.

I never said the Travers was a foregone conclusion, not in any way, shape or form. I am certainly willing to listen to anybody who wants to bet against her, but excuses like, she might get into trouble, her jockey might be intimidated, or she might race in traffic are kind of a waste of time in my opinion.

Let me just say this as well, I've been a Quality Road guy since shortly after the third race on November 29 last year, but everyone is putting him on this monstrous pedestal and I really think he could be in line to be very disappointing in the Travers. A 10 furlong race 2nd off an injury-induced layoff is a tall order. I hope we can see him and Rachel square off.

NT

I totally disagree. I actually dont think people realize how good Quality Road is. I pray she runs, because I will then bet QR as hard as I have ever bet a horse, with full confidence that he is flat out better then her.

[stonegossard]

So Bobby Fischer.............bet you are real happy you stuck up for The Fatman huh ? It is beyond hysterical that you stick up for the fatman, then the guy completely trashes you. Holy Sh#t is that great. Ya just can't make this stuff up.


You really deserve a prize for your performance on here......maybe a car with the engine removed.......a bicycle with square wheels......I thought maybe even a heater, but I figured you lived on the sun and already owned a few.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by stonegossard

So Bobby Fischer.............bet you are real happy you stuck up for The Fatman huh ? It is beyond hysterical that you stick up for the fatman, then the guy completely trashes you. Holy Sh#t is that great. Ya just can't make this stuff up.


You really deserve a prize for your performance on here......maybe a car with the engine removed.......a bicycle with square wheels......I thought maybe even a heater, but I figured you lived on the sun and already owned a few.

Fat's is a smart dude. BF is ok 2. I think Fats is just messing around.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Fat's is a smart dude. BF is ok 2. I think Fats is just messing around.

Instead of dicking around and quoting longterm inhabitants of my iggy bin, you might want to go over to Calracing.com and watch the headon of yesterday's last race at SAR, and learn something. You'll get a good view of how a jock uses HERDING to win a race. What's funny, actually not, is that while the NYRA stewards were busy looking at the tape to subsequently DQ the 3 place finisher (or whatever), we were treated to repeated views of Chavez switching to lefty whip and coming out to HERD, and thus hold off, the chalk. Nothing like selectively determining when not keeping a straight path is grounds for a DQ. This is a pretty embarrassing display of incompetence/inconsistency. But we're learned to deal with it.

I can imagine Donk to Johnny V after the race: "She hung, huh Johnny?"

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Instead of dicking around and quoting longterm inhabitants of my iggy bin, you might want to go over to Calracing.com and watch the headon of yesterday's last race at SAR, and learn something. You'll get a good view of how a jock uses HERDING to win a race. What's funny, actually not, is that while the NYRA stewards were busy looking at the tape to subsequently DQ the 3 place finisher (or whatever), we were treated to repeated views of Chavez switching to lefty whip and coming out to HERD, and thus hold off, the chalk. Nothing like selectively determining when not keeping a straight path is grounds for a DQ. This is a pretty embarrassing display of incompetence/inconsistency. But we're learned to deal with it.

I can imagine Donk to Johnny V after the race: "She hung, huh Johnny?"

I have watched the replay and I get it now. I was live to 6,9 in the pick 3. Both for more then 1$. So I did take the time to watch.
You seem upset with me, wtf?

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by stonegossard

So Bobby Fischer.............bet you are real happy you stuck up for The Fatman huh ? It is beyond hysterical that you stick up for the fatman, then the guy completely trashes you. Holy Sh#t is that great. Ya just can't make this stuff up.


You really deserve a prize for your performance on here......maybe a car with the engine removed.......a bicycle with square wheels......I thought maybe even a heater, but I figured you lived on the sun and already owned a few.

the fat man is just a guy who i happened to find online for something specific i wanted to learn. He doesn't know anything about me. I stand by what i said, it wasn't conditional.

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

the fat man is just a guy who i happened to find online for something specific i wanted to learn. He doesn't know anything about me. I stand by what i said, it wasn't conditional.

What are you trying to learn ? That he doesn't like you and feels you have horrible capping capabilities.


That seems to be what you will get form the guy.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by stonegossard

What are you trying to learn ? That he doesn't like you and feels you have horrible capping capabilities.


That seems to be what you will get form the guy.

it's really irrelevant what his opinion is, and i've never particularly valued his judgment of talent anyway. Whatever I happened to have wanted to learn I have since mastered.