Mine That Bird

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Quality Road will win with/without her. It really wont matter. He is that good. The Birds will be lucky to make the exacta. I will take Warriors Reward for second.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that Quality Road needs Rachel in order to win.

[letswastemoney]

The good thing if you like Mine That Bird is....it's unlikely he'll be "ridden incorrectly" three straight times, so odds are Mike Smith will wait for the right moment this time....whether it's good enough or not.

[Gander]

I dont know why they would put Mike Smith on Mine that Bird again, when there are so many better jockeys already at Saratoga that will no doubt be rideless for the Travers. Coming to mind would be guys like Castellano, Chavez, Lezcano and C Velasquez. What is the huge appeal with Mike Smith that anybody would want to foot the expense of shipping him in?

[cakes44]

Chavez?

[TheSpyder]

Chop Chop is riding great right now. Finally injury free for the first time in a long time. Has had some nice winners at Toga.

Originally Posted by cakes44

Chavez?

[Gander]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Chavez?

Ya Chavez. Hes been riding great in the last few months. Turf and dirt. You give him a live mount and he'll be there at the end. He doesnt give 1/4 of the live mounts Smith gets. Hes not spoon fed 3/5 shots like Zenyatta.
Smith had his chance with the Bird and he didnt exactly give him the best of rides. Hes a good jockey, but is he worthy of being flown in...for any race?

[reese]

Originally Posted by Gander

I dont know why they would put Mike Smith on Mine that Bird again, when there are so many better jockeys already at Saratoga that will no doubt be rideless for the Travers. Coming to mind would be guys like Castellano, Chavez, Lezcano and C Velasquez. What is the huge appeal with Mike Smith that anybody would want to foot the expense of shipping him in?

Ever hear about the HOF? Which of the jocks YOU cited are IN the HOF?

[Travis Stone]

Life and death in the Preakness would have been a nose, but with another 16th of a mile, the result could have easily gone the other way.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Life and death in the Preakness would have been a nose, but with another 16th of a mile, the result could have easily gone the other way.

Personally I can't wait to bet against Rachel, she's had one great scenario after the other with the only adversity coming in the Preakness. She's going into the Travers(?) as the big name, everyone's favorite horse, that she's going to be overbet, if she gets abit of adversity the result could be as close as The Preakness that any value bettor must be salavating at the chance to take her on.

[Gander]

From everything I have heard from people close to the decision makers is there is very little chance you'll see her in the Travers. Its between the Woodward and PA Derby. Of course I hope I am wrong and she shows up next weekend.

They say that her last workout was her best ever and it could be a huge mistake to wait 1 extra week to run her. Shes ready to run now. The Travers comes up as perfect timing. Would be a race for the ages.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by CSC

Personally I can't wait to bet against Rachel, she's had one great scenario after the other with the only adversity coming in the Preakness. She's going into the Travers(?) as the big name, everyone's favorite horse, that she's going to be overbet, if she gets abit of adversity the result could be as close as The Preakness that any value bettor must be salavating at the chance to take her on.

You have to be careful with these words... lots of Rachel fans out there (myself included). But, I agree. I thought the same thing about Zenyatta a few weeks ago, but she overcame and often times the great ones do but I'd be willing to take my chances.

If you consider the Haskell... sure, the fractions were awfully quick, but Munnings held on for third. The difference between the Haskell/Preakness was there were no quality closers in the Haskell. In the Preakness, Mine That Bird put in a legitimate run and almost got there.

My ultimate opinion on all of this is that Rachel Alexandra should be in the Travers because it's the Travers. There's a Woodward next year for her. And plus, Quality Road, whom I believe is an extremely talented race horse, is the only one she hasn't beat and I would like to see the match-up. I know that Quality Road could be light on seasoning but that nagging "what if" is out there.

I get the Kensei argument and the stud value for winning a grade one, but Jess Jackson wrote a $10 million check, so the stud value and wishing the purses were higher stuff is weak in my opinion. Money is not a concern. Then again, he's a business man, and I can't fault that line of thinking.

Only in horse racing can the best horse have legitimate reasoning for skipping the biggest races. In any other sport the biggest events will have the biggest stars - guaranteed. Barring injury, the US Open will never not have Tiger Woods etc.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by CSC

Personally I can't wait to bet against Rachel, she's had one great scenario after the other with the only adversity coming in the Preakness. She's going into the Travers(?) as the big name, everyone's favorite horse, that she's going to be overbet, if she gets abit of adversity the result could be as close as The Preakness that any value bettor must be salavating at the chance to take her on.

You think your horse Summer Bird could reverse that decision on Rachel? I mean he probably cooled out great after the Haskell considering he felt a good gust as she absolutely blew his doors off.

NT

[Gander]

Originally Posted by reese

[/b]

Ever hear about the HOF? Which of the jocks YOU cited are IN the HOF?

The HOF didnt seem to matter in the West Virginia Derby, Smith didnt time it right at all. Borel gave him a crappy ride in the Belmont. Time before that Smith again didnt give the horse a chance (Preakness).

What makes you so sure a guy not in the HOF like Chavez or Lezcano couldnt do any better aboard this horse? Give me a break, its not like this horse has been give good rides and just come up short.

I'd like to see what Mike Smith could do day to day riding in NY. My guess is middle of the standings at best.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by Gander

The HOF didnt seem to matter in the West Virginia Derby, Smith didnt time it right at all. Borel gave him a crappy ride in the Belmont. Time before that Smith again didnt give the horse a chance (Preakness).

What makes you so sure a guy not in the HOF like Chavez or Lezcano couldnt do any better aboard this horse? Give me a break, its not like this horse has been give good rides and just come up short.

I'd like to see what Mike Smith could do day to day riding in NY. My guess is middle of the standings at best.

My guess is below Mike Luzzi, slightly above Morales.

[reese]

Originally Posted by Gander
The HOF didnt seem to matter in the West Virginia Derby, Smith didnt time it right at all. Borel gave him a crappy ride in the Belmont. Time before that Smith again didnt give the horse a chance (Preakness).

What makes you so sure a guy not in the HOF like Chavez or Lezcano couldnt do any better aboard this horse? Give me a break, its not like this horse has been give good rides and just come up short.
[b]
I'd like to see what Mike Smith could do day to day riding in NY.


[B]

Originally Posted by ARyan

My guess is below Mike Luzzi, slightly above Morales[/

Originally Posted by ARyan

B].

Talk about being clueless ..Mike Smith wins Pac Classic on Baffert's 24-1 Richard's Kid

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Gander

I'd like to see what Mike Smith could do day to day riding in NY. My guess is middle of the standings at best.

Yea, that dude could never, ever, in the history of the sport, or in any future paradigm, prove himself in the great state of new york.

[King Glorious]

While the amount of money Rachel may earn is not important for Jackson's bank account, I think it is important for another reason. He already has the highest money earning male in American racing history and I have a feeling that having the highest earning female is what he's after and that is very important to his ego.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by reese

Ever hear about the HOF? Which of the jocks YOU cited are IN the HOF?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

The good thing if you like Mine That Bird is....it's unlikely he'll be "ridden incorrectly" three straight times, so odds are Mike Smith will wait for the right moment this time....whether it's good enough or not.

Watch Smith's ride on Good Time Sally yesterday and tell me if you think that's a jock with over 20 years experience. Probably 99% of the trainers out there would think that Smith did nothing wrong (had the horse OUTSIDE) in what was an absolutely brutal ride.

Fair odds on this horse, with Smith up, in the Travers should probably be > 10:1.