Mine that Bird

[randallscott35]

I don't think he'll be as short of a price as you think...But I'm talking less about value on him than thinking he is a likely winner of the race in my eyes.

[Antitrust32]

His trainer has the coolest belt buckle in the world... so I'm obviously picking Mine that Bird based on the belt buckle angle..

I told him good luck in the travers and his response is "thanks we need it"

[2 Dollar Bill]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

His trainer has the coolest belt buckle in the world... so I'm obviously picking Mine that Bird based on the belt buckle angle..

Maybe Im wrong but reading Picking winners 101... It says "" At Saratoga, allways go with the ""Hat"" angle.... Even if your picking winners in the clubhouse !!!!!

[Bobby Fischer]

i didn't like the way he looked in the WVD. Obviously he is very small, but he usually looks ok in the stretch and gallop out, but he appeared to decline physically there.

He is a game little horse and he posses a long drive. He got one of the best derby trips of all time, probably the best. Not only the ground saving trip, but his positioning.
Preakness was a good race, he had a good setup with the chasers collapsing, Rachel was just better although he shortened the margin close to the wire. Belmont he was arguably best, at least there is a fair chunk of probability that he was best. WVD- i just didn't like the way he looked.

Kensai has a lot of horse, and Asmussen is "hot". One of Jackson's favorite horses. We haven't seen his depth since the time he was moved up, it's possible that with a tough race he could crumble or Prado could waste too much horse. If Quality Road sets a conservative pace, that helps Kensei. If someone else goes or if Quality Road gets brave and looms a winning threat entering the stretch - then it could help the closers

[Payson Dave]

He looked pretty bad on the main this morning....

[Ronnie]

I would guess he'll be 10-1 in the Travers.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Ronnie

I would guess he'll be 10-1 in the Travers.

Rachel Alexandra almost certainly won't run ... and even if she did ... he still would not be 10/1.

I wouldn't be stunned to see MTB laid at like 9/2 on the ML and get bet down more than people expect.

[kgar311]

I think everything comes together for him in this race. The pace, the distance, the track. Will he ever win another major stake? I doubt it but I sure like him in this spot. Is he even the best horse in the race, my answer is no to that too. I think Quality Road is but asking him to go a mile and a quarter at this point off the injury is too much. And I sure would be licking my chops at 5-1.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by kgar311

I think everything comes together for him in this race. The pace, the distance, the track. Will he ever win another major stake? I doubt it but I sure like him in this spot. Is he even the best horse in the race, my answer is no to that too. I think Quality Road is but asking him to go a mile and a quarter at this point off the injury is too much. And I sure would be licking my chops at 5-1.

How are you so sure the pace is going to work out for him? The pace was very fast in the WV Derby and that didn't seem to work out.

I'm not saying he'd be a bad play at 5-1 or so but I am concerned that the wheels are going to come off soon. They gave him very little time to "be a horse" after the Belmont and he sure did look tired in the final quarter at Mountaineer. That was his sixth workout yesterday along with a race in the last seven weeks. The first of those workouts also came only 21 days after the Belmont.

NT

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

How are you so sure the pace is going to work out for him? The pace was very fast in the WV Derby and that didn't seem to work out.

I'm not saying he'd be a bad play at 5-1 or so but I am concerned that the wheels are going to come off soon. They gave him very little time to "be a horse" after the Belmont and he sure did look tired in the final quarter at Mountaineer. That was his sixth workout yesterday along with a race in the last seven weeks. The first of those workouts also came only 21 days after the Belmont.

NT

Im envisioning a Concern type of scenario. 10-15 lengths out by the clubhouse turn and uncorking a huge rally late, only MTB is not coming after Holy Bull. He didnt run his "type" of race in the WV Derby or the Belmont for that matter. Poor rides by both jockey's in both of those races. I think coming in here the connection should have the correct gameplan set in stone and if follow should result in a victory.

[CSC]

I don't know why people are so interested in Mine That Bird, he's probably no better than the 5th best 3 yr old colt at the moment. Summer Bird, Munnings, Quality Rd. are better, the best 3 yr old colt is currently not running at the moment and that is The Pampelmousse, surely there are more exciting prospects.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by kgar311

Im envisioning a Concern type of scenario. 10-15 lengths out by the clubhouse turn and uncorking a huge rally late, only MTB is not coming after Holy Bull. He didnt run his "type" of race in the WV Derby or the Belmont for that matter. Poor rides by both jockey's in both of those races. I think coming in here the connection should have the correct gameplan set in stone and if follow should result in a victory.

3 races before preakness Jockey rode him wrong, loses to sunland horses

Derby, perfect trip on a sloppy track and he beats the great Musket Man and Pioneer of the nile.

Preakness, again its the jockey who cost him losing with a perfect setup and edging out Musket Man, who aint no quality road.

Belmont, has the lead at the top of the stretch and wilts, again its the jockey

WV, Gets a perfect trip chasing a collapsing horse and comes home in 14 2/5ths and loses but its that dang jockey again.

See a pattern here?

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

3 races before preakness Jockey rode him wrong, loses to sunland horses

Derby, perfect trip on a sloppy track and he beats the great Musket Man and Pioneer of the nile.

Preakness, again its the jockey who cost him losing with a perfect setup and edging out Musket Man, who aint no quality road.

Belmont, has the lead at the top of the stretch and wilts, again its the jockey

WV, Gets a perfect trip chasing a collapsing horse and comes home in 14 2/5ths and loses but its that dang jockey again.

See a pattern here?

That's why I said I think everything comes together for him this race. No more excuses here. He gets the trip, the ride and the setup and if he doesnt win well then I guess I was wrong. Wouldn't be the first time. If he wins I walk out of the track with fat pockets.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by kgar311

That's why I said I think everything comes together for him this race. No more excuses here. He gets the trip, the ride and the setup and if he doesnt win well then I guess I was wrong. Wouldn't be the first time. If he wins I walk out of the track with fat pockets.

I would want around 10/1 on that bet though, about the right chance of it happening, maybe 12/1 or so.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by kgar311

That's why I said I think everything comes together for him this race. No more excuses here. He gets the trip, the ride and the setup and if he doesnt win well then I guess I was wrong. Wouldn't be the first time. If he wins I walk out of the track with fat pockets.

Usually when a horse needs a perfect trip, a perfectly timed ride, the perfect pace scenario, the perfect track...the perfect stars alignment, the perfect whatever....turns out to be not so perfect afterall. He's an okay to good horse, we determined that months ago his derby was not a fluke, actually I determined that the night after the derby but some are quicker than others....usually good horses are one's that overcome imperfect pace and trip scenarios, the fact that he can't really speaks volumes of his true abilty.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

3 races before preakness Jockey rode him wrong, loses to sunland horses

Derby, perfect trip on a sloppy track and he beats the great Musket Man and Pioneer of the nile.

Preakness, again its the jockey who cost him losing with a perfect setup and edging out Musket Man, who aint no quality road.

Belmont, has the lead at the top of the stretch and wilts, again its the jockey

WV, Gets a perfect trip chasing a collapsing horse and comes home in 14 2/5ths and loses but its that dang jockey again.

See a pattern here?

He is a decent horse, nothing less, nothing more. The trip at Mountaineer was not really what I would call an ideal trip. He moved WAY too soon.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

He is a decent horse, nothing less, nothing more. The trip at Mountaineer was not really what I would call an ideal trip. He moved WAY too soon.

I agree on decent, decent for a grade 1 winning three year old

a "good" horse never loses the belmont or WV race though with bad horses collapsing in front of him.

[Thunder Gulch]

I don't care if Smith move too early or not. The fact is there was plenty of pace to run at and he couldn't get past Big Drama who was staggering home in 14.5.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

He is a decent horse, nothing less, nothing more. The trip at Mountaineer was not really what I would call an ideal trip. He moved WAY too soon.

You're an ENIGMA. If the MNR trip is so obviously premature, how could you also not notice the premature move in the BEL?

I think the horse didn't handle the track last race. He's climbing and skipping (switching leads) in the run to the 1st turn like I've never seen him do before (I actually watched all his WO races.)

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

How are you so sure the pace is going to work out for him? The pace was very fast in the WV Derby and that didn't seem to work out.

Give this horse Flatbold's run in the Jim Dandy and see what happens.

QR tackles 1 1/4 for the 1st time and Kensei is looking for another speed favoring setup. Odds of the Jim Dandy AND the Travers going 1-2 (or 2-1) around the track are good, aren't they?



Thanks to DrugS for pointing out that its the horse (not the jocks) making all those premature moves.