Manny Robbed

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Yes... I will admit that I'll be upset if they trade our entire minor league for Roy Halladay.. We have some amazing talent down there right now (Drabeck may be the best), and it would be a shame to part with our best young men for someone on the wrong side of 30. Granted Halladay is probably the best pitcher out there.. I dont think he'd be worth what we'd have to give up.

Drabek is overrated. Phillies should be thrilled to get Halladay for him. The one that they don't want to trade is Michael Taylor. Dominic Brown would be tough to give up as well. If they can come up with any package of Drabek that doesn't include Taylor or Brown to get Halladay it would be an absolute steal. I think Toronto will demand one of the two though.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Drabek is overrated. Phillies should be thrilled to get Halladay for him. The one that they don't want to trade is Michael Taylor. Dominic Brown would be tough to give up as well. If they can come up with any package of Drabek that doesn't include Taylor or Brown to get Halladay it would be an absolute steal. I think Toronto will demand one of the two though.

why is Drabek overrated? Because he had TJ surgery? he's been awesome and has some real nice pitches.

Taylor is a beast. Freaking awesome & super fast for a 6'6" man. Brown is really good & we have a real good quality catcher in the minors, along with some other pitchers.

Honestly I think the Phils would rather trade Happ than let Drabek go. Him and Taylor are "untouchable".

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

why is Drabek overrated? Because he had TJ surgery? he's been awesome and has some real nice pitches.

Taylor is a beast. Freaking awesome & super fast for a 6'6" man. Brown is really good & we have a real good quality catcher in the minors, along with some other pitchers.

Honestly I think the Phils would rather trade Happ than let Drabek go. Him and Taylor are "untouchable".

Drabek doesn't have great control and isn't overpowering. And yeah, already having had Tommy John surgery is a concern especially since he doesn't have a huge frame to fall back on. If his Dad wasn't a former pitcher I don't buy that he would be a highly touted prospect. Happ has no real value, if they have to throw him in to get Halladay then they should.

[Crown@club]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Honestly I think the Phils would rather trade Happ than let Drabek go. Him and Taylor are "untouchable".

There's rumblings that Philly brass think Happ is the second coming of Steve Carlton. I hate when my drink ends up in my nose.

[declansharbor]

Happ is pitching lights out for the Phils, even eclisping Hamels. I'd be super pissed if they were to include him in a deal along with the farm chips to land Halladay. I know that teams in this sport have very small windows at the top, but I wouldnt mortgage the future on a deal that looks like it could be a lateral move in a few years. Taylor, Drabek and/or Happ seems to be too much to risk losing.

That said, i'm not sure what move they are going to make for the rotation. Pedro isnt the #2 that my friends all think he's going to be. I told them last night that they are out of their friggin minds for even thinking he should take Blanton's spot in the roto. He's our 4th starter, at best, and may even have trouble holding that spot down the stretch. Do they sit idle and wait for Bastardo to come back, or do they run Moyer out there every 5th day while looking to make an outside move? These are questions I'm sure Ruben Amaro is asking Pat Gillick on conference calls.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Drabek is overrated. Phillies should be thrilled to get Halladay for him. The one that they don't want to trade is Michael Taylor. Dominic Brown would be tough to give up as well. If they can come up with any package of Drabek that doesn't include Taylor or Brown to get Halladay it would be an absolute steal. I think Toronto will demand one of the two though.

I know it isnt much of a sample but Drabek was throwing easy 95mph heat and a nasty curveball on Sunday. He looked awfully good to me.

From baseball prospectus

Kyle Drabek, RHP, Phillies (Pre-season ranking: 92)
It's strange what kind of information can help you, as one of the reasons I ranked Drabek as the third-best prospect in the system entering the year despite his missing most of 2008 while recovering from Tommy John surgery was a conversation I had with his father Doug Drabek at the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas. It was an honest talk about Kyle's old and new mechanics, and what was working and what still needed to be worked on. By the time spring training arrived, Kyle had already tweaked his breaking ball back to plus status with the new delivery, as well as rediscovering his mid-90s velocity, which has led to a breakout year. Many scouts see stardom in his future, but expect less from him in the second half, at least on a workload level, since while his 109 strikeouts currently ranks third in the minors, his 1081/3 innings leads all minor leaguers and will need to be monitored.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I know it isnt much of a sample but Drabek was throwing easy 95mph heat and a nasty curveball on Sunday. He looked awfully good to me.

From baseball prospectus

Kyle Drabek, RHP, Phillies (Pre-season ranking: 92)
It's strange what kind of information can help you, as one of the reasons I ranked Drabek as the third-best prospect in the system entering the year despite his missing most of 2008 while recovering from Tommy John surgery was a conversation I had with his father Doug Drabek at the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas. It was an honest talk about Kyle's old and new mechanics, and what was working and what still needed to be worked on. By the time spring training arrived, Kyle had already tweaked his breaking ball back to plus status with the new delivery, as well as rediscovering his mid-90s velocity, which has led to a breakout year. Many scouts see stardom in his future, but expect less from him in the second half, at least on a workload level, since while his 109 strikeouts currently ranks third in the minors, his 1081/3 innings leads all minor leaguers and will need to be monitored.

From an ERA perspective it appears he made the jump from High A to AA without much problem (2.48 to 2.70). However, with young pitchers I find K/IP and K/BB ratios to be far more effective indicators of how well they are moving up in level. In Drabek's case his K/IP dropped from a fantastic 1.20 to a very average 0.77 and his K/BB ratio dropped from a very solid 3.89 to a more worrisome 2.11 when making the jump to AA. He still has a long way to go and is a risk with the Tommy John. If Philly could get Halladay for him they should jump on it. I think Drabek is a top 50 prospect in the minors, probably somewhere in the 30-35 range but I think Baseball America was reaching a bit when they named him #24 last week and I think the Phillies are making a mistake if they give up Taylor (underrated by BA at #23) or Brown (BA #17) instead of Drabek to get Halladay.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

From an ERA perspective it appears he made the jump from High A to AA without much problem (2.48 to 2.70). However, with young pitchers I find K/IP and K/BB ratios to be far more effective indicators of how well they are moving up in level. In Drabek's case his K/IP dropped from a fantastic 1.20 to a very average 0.77 and his K/BB ratio dropped from a very solid 3.89 to a more worrisome 2.11 when making the jump to AA. He still has a long way to go and is a risk with the Tommy John. If Philly could get Halladay for him they should jump on it. I think Drabek is a top 50 prospect in the minors, probably somewhere in the 30-35 range but I think Baseball America was reaching a bit when they named him #24 last week and I think the Phillies are making a mistake if they give up Taylor (underrated by BA at #23) or Brown (BA #17) instead of Drabek to get Halladay.

I dont think anyone is saying that the Jays would trade Halladay unless they give up at least 2 of those guys. Most young pitchers that recover quickly from TJ surgery arent that big of a reinjury risk.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I dont think anyone is saying that the Jays would trade Halladay unless they give up at least 2 of those guys. Most young pitchers that recover quickly from TJ surgery arent that big of a reinjury risk.

It might be true Chuck but I am curious about where you saw that? That procedure for reconstruction of the shoulder is still considered about as complicated a surgical procedure as there is in orthopedics. It would stand to reason that the more work done on an area of the body the more likely you are to have a subsequent complication. Another example of this is the subdsequent obstructions that occur following any intrabdominal or pelvic surgery 5, 10, 20 years later etc. Once a virgin abdomen is no longer without a scar the likelihood of a subsequent small bowel obstruction goes up as much as 100 fold. A young kid who has that much work on a dominant arm would be likely to have later fraying or other issues......but if you know of data otherwise I would love to see it.

The whole Tommy John labeling of the operation is fairly ironic as the guy wasn't a flame thrower but more of a cerebral pitcher who changed speeds and threw more junk than Jamie Moyer in a monsoon. This is one of the few times a procedure is named after the patient instead of the doc who invented it......very unusual but kinda cool as well.

[3kings]

Chuck,

I was at a Rochester Redwing game last week and saw Danny Valencia (Twin prospect) play and thought he looked like a big time prospect. He made a couple of great plays in the field and the ball jumped off his bat. Do you have any info on him? Was just curious, thanks.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by 3kings

Chuck,

I was at a Rochester Redwing game last week and saw Danny Valencia (Twin prospect) play and thought he looked like a big time prospect. He made a couple of great plays in the field and the ball jumped off his bat. Do you have any info on him? Was just curious, thanks.

Was Twins number 3 prospect coming into the season.

Danny Valencia, 3B
DOB: 9/19/84
Height/Weight: 6-2/200
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 19th round, 2006, University of Miami
2008 Stats: .336/.402/.518, .274 EqA at High-A (60 G); .289/.334/.485, .247 EqA at Double-A (69 G)
Last Year's Ranking: Not Ranked

Year in Review: This once lightly regarded organizational player continued to put up impressive numbers in 2008 while turning scouts into true believers.
The Good: Valencia's hitting skills rank with anyone's in the system other than Revere's. He's "aggressively patient" at the plate, looking for pitches to drive, using all fields, and showcasing average power with the occasional ability to crush mistakes. He's a solid third baseman who makes all of the plays he gets to while featuring a plus arm.
The Bad: There are no real weaknesses to his game, but then he doesn't have massive tools or significant upside potential either. He's a tick below average as a baserunner, and his range at third is average at best.
Fun Fact: No player signed as the 576th overall pick has ever reached the big leagues. (The Cubs selected Micah Owings with the selection in 2004, but he didn't sign.)
Perfect World Projection: He's a solid mid-pack third baseman.
Glass Half Empty: He'll be a good utility player at both corners, though his right-handedness could make that a tougher road to travel.
Path to the Big Leagues: It's wide open; the Twins enter camp without a real answer at third base.
Timetable: Because of his age, Valencia could get jumped to Triple-A Rochester to begin the year as the Twins want to see if he could ready to fill their hole at the hot corner.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by docicu3

It might be true Chuck but I am curious about where you saw that? That procedure for reconstruction of the shoulder is still considered about as complicated a surgical procedure as there is in orthopedics. It would stand to reason that the more work done on an area of the body the more likely you are to have a subsequent complication. Another example of this is the subdsequent obstructions that occur following any intrabdominal or pelvic surgery 5, 10, 20 years later etc. Once a virgin abdomen is no longer without a scar the likelihood of a subsequent small bowel obstruction goes up as much as 100 fold. A young kid who has that much work on a dominant arm would be likely to have later fraying or other issues......but if you know of data otherwise I would love to see it.

The whole Tommy John labeling of the operation is fairly ironic as the guy wasn't a flame thrower but more of a cerebral pitcher who changed speeds and threw more junk than Jamie Moyer in a monsoon. This is one of the few times a procedure is named after the patient instead of the doc who invented it......very unusual but kinda cool as well.

TJ is an elbow surgery.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=3486

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0228075730.htm

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0712090831.htm

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

TJ is an elbow surgery.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=3486

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0228075730.htm

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0712090831.htm

Comeback To A Pre-injury Level Disappointing For Professional Baseball Players (Mar. 9, 2008) — Only forty-five percent of baseball players were able to return to the game at the same or higher level after shoulder or elbow surgery. Researchers found that overall, only 20 of the 44 players ...

Your right Chuck it's really not a surgery on the shoulder but not really a surgery on the elbow with the forearm tendon split and figure of 8 tendon wrap until the vascular supply takes hold. It's really kinda in no mans land below the shoulder and above the elbow but the point I thought the article or reviews were making were 1) It's done on an awful lot of kids and maybe too many and 2) One of your articles seems to imply that alot of kids never get back to where they were as pitchers strength and velocity wise.

With the recent decline if the Red Sox baseball is tough for me to stomach....they looked absolutely putrid against Texas.