Gotta love Saratoga/NYRA - Condition Book

[Linny]

Originally Posted by gales0678

woolley was 0 for how many before the derby? Borel was what 30% or something ridiculously high at CD on 2 turn stakes races and it went higher if it was a muddy track - data can go both ways

didn't bill mott have a big year a couple of years ago with 2 yr olds ....a guy that had couldn't get 2 yr olds to win? if you looked at the data on mott for 2 yr olds you didn't play him that yr and lost out on many winners some at generous prices

Ed K will have a positive ROI with his 2 yr olds at saratoga this year , you won't read it in the booklet that they hand out , they will tell you to bet all the outfits that did well last year or 2 years ago .....it comes down to who has the horses steve you know that..

Comparing one race a year (the Derby) with a five year pattern is moot. Any one trainer can win any one race, as long as he's in it.
Yes, aberrations can and do happen (Mott winning a bunch of baby races, Pletcher losing a bunch of baby races) but the entire idea of what we do is to use statistics about the past to project what will happen in the future. There was a time when Zito firsters were poison but theings have changed, as they will. Yes, a few little known guys will win at Saratoga and a few bombs will come in, but year after year (over about a 5 year period) the laws of averages work.
The money is to be made in the "shift periods." I admit I was slow to acknowledge that Mott was winning baby races 2 yrs ago. I kept thinking "this is an aberration, the next one won't win" and I was wrong. I should have seen the shift (even if it wasfor a short time) and bet while the prices were still good. Instead my money went to boosting Mott's prices.
When Zito started winning with babies a few seasons ago I did hop onto it. Birdstone and El Prado Rob were (I think) both winners that year and I had both.
Of course it's who has the horses, but pattern prevails. All the Speighstown/Carson City type early seaon breeding won't get you anyplace if you don't know how to use it. Let's face it, generally the better horses from sales etc end up with Todd, Kieran, Steve Asmussen and a few others. They get the best horses for early success and they win alot. Over the course of years, the lower priced sons and daughters of those elite 2yo sires that end up in second tier barns simply don't win as much as the higher end ones that go to top level barns.
As far as Kenneally is concerned, sure he might have a big season, but so might any one. Jeff Odintz or Joe Parker might win a bunch, but their stats don't point in that direction.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Linny

Comparing one race a year (the Derby) with a five year pattern is moot. Any one trainer can win any one race, as long as he's in it.
Yes, aberrations can and do happen (Mott winning a bunch of baby races, Pletcher losing a bunch of baby races) but the entire idea of what we do is to use statistics about the past to project what will happen in the future. There was a time when Zito firsters were poison but theings have changed, as they will. Yes, a few little known guys will win at Saratoga and a few bombs will come in, but year after year (over about a 5 year period) the laws of averages work.
The money is to be made in the "shift periods." I admit I was slow to acknowledge that Mott was winning baby races 2 yrs ago. I kept thinking "this is an aberration, the next one won't win" and I was wrong. I should have seen the shift (even if it wasfor a short time) and bet while the prices were still good. Instead my money went to boosting Mott's prices.
When Zito started winning with babies a few seasons ago I did hop onto it. Birdstone and El Prado Rob were (I think) both winners that year and I had both.
Of course it's who have the horses but pattern prevail. All the Speighstown/Carson City type early seaon breeding won't get you anyplace if you don't know how to use it. Let's face it, generally the better horses from sales etc end up with Todd, Kieran, Steve Asmussen and a few others. They get the best horses for early success and they win alot. Over the course of years, the lower priced sons and daughters of those elite 2yo sires that end up in second tier barns simply don't win as much as the higher end ones that go to top level barns.
As far as Kenneally is concerned, sure he might have a big season, but so might any one. Jeff Odintz or Joe Parker might win a bunch, but their stats don't point in that direction.

i would rather take a shot with betting a trainer that will not get overbet/be the chalk in almost every race , how many 2 yr old horses that any of the 3 guys you mentioned are going to pay $10+ dollars to win , probably very few

when the word gets around that todd or kiran or Assmussen has a runner they get bet heavily in full fields and i just let them go at those short prices and pass

[Linny]

I don't have 2008 charts in front of me but I had Kensei at a decent price last summer and when I see the charts I'll be reminded of others. After all alot of the maidens will have 3 or 4 "top juvie trainers" represented.
I like P3's and P4's so I need to find trainers with winning profiles, not guys that hit the board. I'd rather be alive to Todd or Steve in a baby race than Eddie. If the issue is MDCL at Saratoga, don't overlook the Chief. Jerkens' Smokume paid for a great evening out at the Spa a few years back after a MDCL win. Like Kelly Kip a decade earlier, Smokume became GRADED WINNER.
The key is to spot trends early and pounce. Todd, for example often starts Saratoga with guns blazing, then runs through his stock and hits a lull during weeks 3-4. Then some of his opening week stock is ready to come back. (Mind you a lull for Todd often means winning with 1 of 5 rather than 1 of 4.)

[Travis Stone]

I should have saved the $8.50 for the movie last night to stay home and follow this thread. I think the thread was more entertaining (although Public Enemies is pretty good).

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I should have saved the $8.50 for the movie last night to stay home and follow this thread. I think the thread was more entertaining (although Public Enemies is pretty good).

you do realize i'm on the payroll here

[rpncaine]

Is Wes Ward coming to the Spa with 2 year olds?