Rachel vs. Zenyatta: Which run the better race?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

At Saratoga, you have the detention barn, plus tight turns that would compromise Zenyatta given her running style of coming wide from behind.[/b]

I don't have the dimensions but I would doubt that SAR has tighter turns than HOL or SA or DMR or is less conducive to closers than these other tracks. I wouldn't doubt, however, that NYRA would mess with the track to ensure fast times. And that a speed bias would be part of the package. Don't blame him one bit. I'd sit in CALI and take my chances against the EUROS in the Classic. POLY is FAIR, doctored DIRT ISN'T.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

POLY is FAIR, doctored DIRT ISN'T.

Synthetics have far more biases than dirt does, and they are many times induced by human maintenance decisions.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Synthetics have far more biases than dirt does, and they are many times induced by human maintenance decisions.

Sure. This is why all those DIRT players that had gotten so comfortable playing their speed biases over the years are up in arms over the switch to POLY. For evidence, read any number of threads over at that other forum, and this one as well. What's interesting is that they all swear that the reason they can't win is that POLY has all these 'biases'. Now, that's ironic.

I see it as just about the fairest surface out there -- fairer even than turf.

DIRT is old news. The unfairness of the dirt speed bias needs to end. The present meet at BEL, with all those off the turf races, is a perfect example of how useless DIRT is. Compare this to WO or AP presently: when it rains, they just run on the POLY and hardly anybody notices.

[cmorioles]

At least on turf, the conditions aren't manipulated by the maintenance crew. It is much easier to manipulate rubber than it is dirt. I don't mind synthetics as a bettor, don't really like them as a fan.

As for the Zenyatta debate, she has raced with a surface and/or pace bias towards her style in most starts. I don't think her dirt win was anything special, and if she faces Rachel on dirt, she will lose.

[the_fat_man]

I'm too lazy to look up the other races on the days that Z ran to debate your claim. (I've recently written some code that would easily do this but it doesn't cover her early races.) Of course, I find it unlikely that a horse can run a single style of race and win 11 in a row doing so. We both know that most of these horses are only as good as their setup ('pace' in your language).

RA can demonstrate that she's better than Z. All she has to do is come west, where her 'pace' advantage won't be as 'advantageous'. Jackson isn't afraid of a FAIR race, is he?

As for POLY, all I know is that it is the most 'precise' surface out there. I don't play with any figures at all, as you well know, and POLY allows me to play angles that I can't even play on turf; let alone on dirt. Honestly, I just don't see the bias thing. I see fair racing, where timing of moves dictates who wins.

[cmorioles]

I don't have my "Champions" book handy, but didn't Personal Ensign, Seattle Slew, Hallowed Dreams, Cigar, etc. all win a bunch in a row running the same style?

Why are synthetics more fair than dirt? I don't understand why making speed a disadvantage is a fair race.

Imagine if they eliminated the time trials from the Tour de France, the ultimate test in bike racing. Would that make it more fair?

[the_fat_man]

Speed isn't a disadvantage on poly. It's just not the advantage that it is on dirt. It's essentially the same as what it is on turf. To wire the field on turf or poly you have to earn it. You have to actually run well rather than have the track carry you. As a handicapper, this is about as challenging as it gets.You need to be able to identify a horse that has the guts to fight it out on the front end. What's beautiful about the surface is that you can have the best horse in the race and not be afraid to bet it in the case of a pace disadvantage, as you know that if your jock correctly times his move, he'll run down the loose leader.

The time trial analogy is not a good one. This is an individual effort. I'd certainly be all for speed figures is tbred racing was a time trial.
Racing (both cycling and tbred) is a group effort. But it's interesting that in cycling the drafter has a huge advantage, while in dirt racing the pace setter has it.

I thought about Personal Ensign after my initial post. Unfortunately, I don't have the charts of her races and can't really compare her style. Did she come from last in all her races?

[10 pnt move up]

I hate Poly, I hate Pro Ride but I am cool with Cushion Track at Hollywood, it is a very fair surface. Unfortunately they have the worst racing of the year due to the schedule, if everyone had cushion I dont think you would hear as much chatter about "plastic".

I wonder though, its clear the end game is HOY to the owners of Zenyatta, if they think about it if they are undefeated and win the BC Classic against older males, and as some have pointed out top Euro's would that be a better win then the Preakness against the mighty MTB and Musket Man?

Or if they would guarantee it I would be all for a meeting on RA's home track in the Clark after the Distaff. I think CD is a very fair surface.

[Bobby Fischer]

a special race needs to be created for these two

if the first(Saratoga) is a success, a rematch is in order out west...

[Bobby Fischer]

Aesthetically synthetci surfaces suck. They tends to gravitate towards a cheaper version of turf racing when stakes purses aren't powering it.

Synth at it's best is a no excuses battle ground for the worlds top horses.