Rachel vs. Zenyatta: Which run the better race?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Winning from dead last is a great feat.. but come on.. do it against some other fast horses PLEASE!

'FAST' is certainly not the result of anything FIGURES might tell you. That the crew had to make AD HOC adjustments to its POLY methodology should make this apparent. That all the FAST GP horses of this past winter haven't exactly been FAST since might be another indication.

But let me get this FAST thing straight. Mine that Bird WASN'T FAST, then he was FAST. So, he must be one of the FAST horses that RA has beaten; as are those plugs she rolled over this weekend with that perfect setup?

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

'FAST' is certainly not the result of anything FIGURES might tell you. That the crew had to make AD HOC adjustments to its POLY methodology should make this apparent. That all the FAST GP horses of this past winter haven't exactly been FAST since might be another indication.

I agree with you. I dont really care about figures, I dont bet enough to really care.. I have my own method of madness that only seems to work at Saratoga... so I only bet Saratoga (where I make a lil money) & big race days (where I lose money).

Thats the point though... there really are no fast horses especially if she keeps running against fillies and mares on the poly. Rachel's fast... there are some boys out there that arent fast compared to fast horses in other years, but are MUCH faster than the horses big Z's been beating.

I dont blame the owners for staying in their back yard and winning purse after purse without having to put out much effort. i DO think they were chickens for scratching her on Oaks day... because of RAIN!!?!? But if they want to win a HOY, which is what the man is saying... they have to grow a pair and run against something other than the junk they've been beating for a couple years now. Since they've never acted like this before, I guess I have to see it to believe it.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

'FAST' is certainly not the result of anything FIGURES might tell you. That the crew had to make AD HOC adjustments to its POLY methodology should make this apparent. That all the FAST GP horses of this past winter haven't exactly been FAST since might be another indication.

But let me get this FAST thing straight. Mine that Bird WASN'T FAST, then he was FAST. So, he must be one of the FAST horses that RA has beaten; as are those plugs she rolled over this weekend with that perfect setup?

now to address this point. Mine That Bird got much faster when he changed his running style. He's not super fast but he is capable of running fast especially the last 3/8ths of a race.

The plugs she beat in the Oaks and Mother Goose are SLOW horses. BUT SHE'S WON BY FREAKING 20 LENGHTS!!!!!!!! In UNBELIEVABLY fast times! Fat man, repeat after me.. ONE MINUTE AND FORTY SIX SECONDS AND ONE/FIFTH. that is fast my friend

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

now to address this point. Mine That Bird got much faster when he changed his running style. He's not super fast but he is capable of running fast especially the last 3/8ths of a race.

The plugs she beat in the Oaks and Mother Goose are SLOW horses. BUT SHE'S WON BY FREAKING 20 LENGHTS!!!!!!!! In UNBELIEVABLY fast times! Fat man, repeat after me.. ONE MINUTE AND FORTY SIX SECONDS AND ONE/FIFTH. that is fast my friend

So what? She beat nothing by open lengths and ran fast doing so. On the other hand, Z has collapsed ELEVEN races in a row, with the same running style. Anyone not fixated on 'FAST' would, at some point, conclude, that maybe she's not SLOW. If she were coming in the lane of the Preakness, rather than the FAST Mine that Bird, doubtful that the RA hangs on.

What a conundrum.

[CSC]

Again, I don't know if anyone knows the answer to this but has Zenyatta's career poly numbers have been ammended and upgraded since Beyer has changed the formula for assigning synthetic numbers.

[Bobby Fischer]

sooner or later this was going to happen...

we have a situation, where a match race needs to be created for pay-per-view

they've earned that big payday and the public wants it, it is just up to the owners to get on the same page and sign on with a solid promoter. The money is on the table.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

So what? She beat nothing by open lengths and ran fast doing so. On the other hand, Z has collapsed ELEVEN races in a row, with the same running style. Anyone not fixated on 'FAST' would, at some point, conclude, that maybe she's not SLOW. If she were coming in the lane of the Preakness, rather than the FAST Mine that Bird, doubtful that the RA hangs on.

What a conundrum.

RA was compromised by trip and fractions in the Preakness ... of course Zenyatta probably gets to her and goes by her late that day.

Still, we are taking about a 3yo filly in middle may vs. a 5yo that is easily the best older horse in the land on synthetic ... and easily the best older mare in the land on dirt too .. though more because the others kind of suck than anything else.

[tector]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

RA was compromised by trip and fractions in the Preakness

Not only that, it was plain that she did not like that track. I am not talking about Calvin's statements after the race. While the race was running I turned to my friend and said "Look at her--she's running choppy, she doesn't like this track." I thought it was clear then and there. So while some other people discounted his statement, I thought it fairly obvious.

If you win the Preakness over a track that is not your best, contesting a wicked pace, you are some freaking horse--or filly.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by tector

Not only that, it was plain that she did not like that track. I am not talking about Calvin's statements after the race. .

I never buy that junk from riders.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by tector

Not only that, it was plain that she did not like that track. I am not talking about Calvin's statements after the race. While the race was running I turned to my friend and said "Look at her--she's running choppy, she doesn't like this track." I thought it was clear then and there. So while some other people discounted his statement, I thought it fairly obvious.

If you win the Preakness over a track that is not your best, contesting a wicked pace, you are some freaking horse--or filly.

I thought she was going to lose watching her on the backstretch... It was like de-ja-vu watching Bernardini @ churchill. her stride and effort just didnt look the same as when racing on different surfaces.

[10 pnt move up]

Of the two races run last weekend I thought RA ran the superior race even with a perfect setup.

Yes Zenyatta had some extra weight, I aint a weight carrying person, so that means little to me. Yes it was a slow pace crawl and she had to come from last while losing ground, so what. I just think visually this was Zenyatta's second worse race of her career and as Drugs mentioned Shirreffs can crank them up for the big race like the best of them and this was not it.

RA is going to run fast times with setups like that, and even without great setups she is going to run fast like the preakness.

Zenyatta is never going to run all that fast unless the pace is really quick, which race has she run with a quick pace? My guess is those are her best figure races, and she probably won in a hand ride, right?

Thinking about the detention barn comment, and the "looking for a different challenge" comment from the owner, it seems to me they are going to point to the classic. Given they have other horses they shoudl run Tiago in the mile, and then run Madeo in the turf mile.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

RA was compromised by trip and fractions in the Preakness ... of course Zenyatta probably gets to her and goes by her late that day.

Still, we are taking about a 3yo filly in middle may vs. a 5yo that is easily the best older horse in the land on synthetic ... and easily the best older mare in the land on dirt too .. though more because the others kind of suck than anything else.

Thanks for pointing that out. I was waiting for the latest PACE FIGURES to come out so I could get my final opinion of the Preakness squared off. But thanks for pointing out the obvious -- your specialty.

As for the rest of it, you can make that case for just about any prolific winner: he/she beat a lot of nothings.

Tell you this much, BEYER BOY, there isn't a horse in history that has won ALL of its starts running the same way, like Z has. Sooner or later the SETUP or a BIAS gets all of them. That it hasn't to this point in her case, once again, indicates how special she really is.

P.S. were you consulted when Beyer decided to AD HOC change those POLY figs?

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Thanks for pointing that out. I was waiting for the latest PACE FIGURES to come out so I could get my final opinion of the Preakness squared off. But thanks for pointing out the obvious -- your specialty.
?

I laughed, usually his obviousness comes after the fact as well.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I laughed, usually his obviousness comes after the fact as well.

Yeah, usually, like...never.

Mikey Smith. Yay!!!!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

But thanks for pointing out the obvious -- your specialty.

What I point out only seems like the obvious because of how damn convincing and brilliant and correct I am.

If I somehow found out something that no one knows .. and I told every one .. you'd all be like "well duh! - no sh!t, does he think I'm stupid?"

Chalk it up to the greatness of DrugS - it's how I roll and stuff.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

What I point out only seems like the obvious because of how damn convincing and brilliant and correct I am.

If I somehow found out something that no one knows .. and I told every one .. you'd all be like "well duh! - no sh!t, does he think I'm stupid?"

Chalk it up to the greatness of DrugS - it's how I roll and stuff.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Chalk it up to the greatness of DrugS - it's how I roll and stuff.

You should really look into buying Jelly ROLL. I'm sure Wolfson would convince the connections to sell her to you.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Chalk it up to the greatness of DrugS - it's how I roll and stuff.

you do make me laugh, I mean that sincerely.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Tell you this much, BEYER BOY, there isn't a horse in history that has won ALL of its starts running the same way, like Z has. Sooner or later the SETUP or a BIAS gets all of them. That it hasn't to this point in her case, once again, indicates how special she really is.

P.S. were you consulted when Beyer decided to AD HOC change those POLY figs?

Never knew you were that funny...

I would have been more impressed by Rachel Alexandra had she been up on the pace, doing the dirty work rather than watching the 2 pace setters slug it out and then pouncing, it was a good effort nevertheless, however if I was to be picky about it the race really fell into her lap, she had the trip of trips. No adversity whatsoever.

[King Glorious]

I get the feeling that the only chance this has of happening is if Monmouth or Delaware creates a race. Shirreffs doesn't want to run out of the detention barn so that would make NY unlikely. Jackson doesn't want to run on junk so that rules out a few other places. Monmouth made a race for Big Brown last year. Maybe they'll do one for this race this year.