Rachel vs. Zenyatta: Which run the better race?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

that would be a good idea.

I also just dont think Zenyatta is fast enough or good enough to win the classic.. After last year's success the Euro's are going to send some real race horses over here for the 2nd year the dirt classic is going to be run on a turf equivalent. Zenyatta would be lucky to hit the board.

Her only chance is to beat Rachel in a race on dirt and beat the boys in the Goodwood or something.

This is the typical figure perspective. She's not fast enough? Based on what? And why are the Euro's faster? Do you really think, given her performance over 11 races, that she wouldn't have been competitive in last year's Classic? She's ****in collapsed ELEVEN races. That's 11 races where she came from DEAD LAST (2nd last in OP). These are races that had multiple moves, middle moves, didn't have middle moves, and just about any other combo you might see. You really think that she wouldn't have rolled over a field in a race that collapsed due to multiple moves like last year's Classic?
Do you have any idea how unprecedented what this horse has done is? Even Forego lost on days when the setup went against him. This horse dictates setups --- it's her way all the time.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

This is the typical figure perspective. She's not fast enough? Based on what? And why are the Euro's faster? Do you really think, given her performance over 11 races, that she wouldn't have been competitive in last year's Classic? She's ****in collapsed ELEVEN races. That's 11 races where she came from DEAD LAST (2nd last in OP). These are races that had multiple moves, middle moves, didn't have middle moves, and just about any other combo you might see. You really think that she wouldn't have rolled over a field in a race that collapsed due to multiple moves like last year's Classic?
Do you have any idea how unprecedented what this horse has done is? Even Forego lost on days when the setup went against him. This horse dictates setups --- it's her way all the time.

I think she ran AWESOME in last years distaff... prolly her 2nd best race behind her real dirt win. With saying that I think she would have ran 2nd in last years classic... which would have still been an incredible achievement.

She's a spectacular filly who I'd like to see run against some actual competition. The only way she does that is running against boys or Rachel.

I'd bet against her with two fists in the Classic & against Rachel... but I hope she actually does it and proves me wrong because her career has been BORING save a couple races.

Winning from dead last is a great feat.. but come on.. do it against some other fast horses PLEASE!

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Winning from dead last is a great feat.. but come on.. do it against some other fast horses PLEASE!

'FAST' is certainly not the result of anything FIGURES might tell you. That the crew had to make AD HOC adjustments to its POLY methodology should make this apparent. That all the FAST GP horses of this past winter haven't exactly been FAST since might be another indication.

But let me get this FAST thing straight. Mine that Bird WASN'T FAST, then he was FAST. So, he must be one of the FAST horses that RA has beaten; as are those plugs she rolled over this weekend with that perfect setup?

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

'FAST' is certainly not the result of anything FIGURES might tell you. That the crew had to make AD HOC adjustments to its POLY methodology should make this apparent. That all the FAST GP horses of this past winter haven't exactly been FAST since might be another indication.

I agree with you. I dont really care about figures, I dont bet enough to really care.. I have my own method of madness that only seems to work at Saratoga... so I only bet Saratoga (where I make a lil money) & big race days (where I lose money).

Thats the point though... there really are no fast horses especially if she keeps running against fillies and mares on the poly. Rachel's fast... there are some boys out there that arent fast compared to fast horses in other years, but are MUCH faster than the horses big Z's been beating.

I dont blame the owners for staying in their back yard and winning purse after purse without having to put out much effort. i DO think they were chickens for scratching her on Oaks day... because of RAIN!!?!? But if they want to win a HOY, which is what the man is saying... they have to grow a pair and run against something other than the junk they've been beating for a couple years now. Since they've never acted like this before, I guess I have to see it to believe it.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

'FAST' is certainly not the result of anything FIGURES might tell you. That the crew had to make AD HOC adjustments to its POLY methodology should make this apparent. That all the FAST GP horses of this past winter haven't exactly been FAST since might be another indication.

But let me get this FAST thing straight. Mine that Bird WASN'T FAST, then he was FAST. So, he must be one of the FAST horses that RA has beaten; as are those plugs she rolled over this weekend with that perfect setup?

now to address this point. Mine That Bird got much faster when he changed his running style. He's not super fast but he is capable of running fast especially the last 3/8ths of a race.

The plugs she beat in the Oaks and Mother Goose are SLOW horses. BUT SHE'S WON BY FREAKING 20 LENGHTS!!!!!!!! In UNBELIEVABLY fast times! Fat man, repeat after me.. ONE MINUTE AND FORTY SIX SECONDS AND ONE/FIFTH. that is fast my friend

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

now to address this point. Mine That Bird got much faster when he changed his running style. He's not super fast but he is capable of running fast especially the last 3/8ths of a race.

The plugs she beat in the Oaks and Mother Goose are SLOW horses. BUT SHE'S WON BY FREAKING 20 LENGHTS!!!!!!!! In UNBELIEVABLY fast times! Fat man, repeat after me.. ONE MINUTE AND FORTY SIX SECONDS AND ONE/FIFTH. that is fast my friend

So what? She beat nothing by open lengths and ran fast doing so. On the other hand, Z has collapsed ELEVEN races in a row, with the same running style. Anyone not fixated on 'FAST' would, at some point, conclude, that maybe she's not SLOW. If she were coming in the lane of the Preakness, rather than the FAST Mine that Bird, doubtful that the RA hangs on.

What a conundrum.

[CSC]

Again, I don't know if anyone knows the answer to this but has Zenyatta's career poly numbers have been ammended and upgraded since Beyer has changed the formula for assigning synthetic numbers.

[Bobby Fischer]

sooner or later this was going to happen...

we have a situation, where a match race needs to be created for pay-per-view

they've earned that big payday and the public wants it, it is just up to the owners to get on the same page and sign on with a solid promoter. The money is on the table.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

So what? She beat nothing by open lengths and ran fast doing so. On the other hand, Z has collapsed ELEVEN races in a row, with the same running style. Anyone not fixated on 'FAST' would, at some point, conclude, that maybe she's not SLOW. If she were coming in the lane of the Preakness, rather than the FAST Mine that Bird, doubtful that the RA hangs on.

What a conundrum.

RA was compromised by trip and fractions in the Preakness ... of course Zenyatta probably gets to her and goes by her late that day.

Still, we are taking about a 3yo filly in middle may vs. a 5yo that is easily the best older horse in the land on synthetic ... and easily the best older mare in the land on dirt too .. though more because the others kind of suck than anything else.

[tector]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

RA was compromised by trip and fractions in the Preakness

Not only that, it was plain that she did not like that track. I am not talking about Calvin's statements after the race. While the race was running I turned to my friend and said "Look at her--she's running choppy, she doesn't like this track." I thought it was clear then and there. So while some other people discounted his statement, I thought it fairly obvious.

If you win the Preakness over a track that is not your best, contesting a wicked pace, you are some freaking horse--or filly.

[10 pnt move up]

Of the two races run last weekend I thought RA ran the superior race even with a perfect setup.

Yes Zenyatta had some extra weight, I aint a weight carrying person, so that means little to me. Yes it was a slow pace crawl and she had to come from last while losing ground, so what. I just think visually this was Zenyatta's second worse race of her career and as Drugs mentioned Shirreffs can crank them up for the big race like the best of them and this was not it.

RA is going to run fast times with setups like that, and even without great setups she is going to run fast like the preakness.

Zenyatta is never going to run all that fast unless the pace is really quick, which race has she run with a quick pace? My guess is those are her best figure races, and she probably won in a hand ride, right?

Thinking about the detention barn comment, and the "looking for a different challenge" comment from the owner, it seems to me they are going to point to the classic. Given they have other horses they shoudl run Tiago in the mile, and then run Madeo in the turf mile.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

RA was compromised by trip and fractions in the Preakness ... of course Zenyatta probably gets to her and goes by her late that day.

Still, we are taking about a 3yo filly in middle may vs. a 5yo that is easily the best older horse in the land on synthetic ... and easily the best older mare in the land on dirt too .. though more because the others kind of suck than anything else.

Thanks for pointing that out. I was waiting for the latest PACE FIGURES to come out so I could get my final opinion of the Preakness squared off. But thanks for pointing out the obvious -- your specialty.

As for the rest of it, you can make that case for just about any prolific winner: he/she beat a lot of nothings.

Tell you this much, BEYER BOY, there isn't a horse in history that has won ALL of its starts running the same way, like Z has. Sooner or later the SETUP or a BIAS gets all of them. That it hasn't to this point in her case, once again, indicates how special she really is.

P.S. were you consulted when Beyer decided to AD HOC change those POLY figs?

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

RA was compromised by trip and fractions in the Preakness ... of course Zenyatta probably gets to her and goes by her late that day.

Still, we are taking about a 3yo filly in middle may vs. a 5yo that is easily the best older horse in the land on synthetic ... and easily the best older mare in the land on dirt too .. though more because the others kind of suck than anything else.

I'm not convinced Zenyatta would have beat Rachel in the Preakness. Since we're throwing out hypotheticals, do you (fat man) think Zenyatta would have won the Preakness if Rachel had an easier pace?

Also has Zenyatta ever gone farther than 1 1/8th? Dont her owners/trainer not even want to run her farther than 1 1/8th?

And horseofcourse, I do really believe that Rachel did not handle the Pimlico track the same way she handled Churchill and Belmont. Not only did her jockey say so right after the race in which she won a classic (must have really been on his mind, I mean, how often do you hear a jockey making excuses eventhough he just WON a classic with a filly!), but just watching how easy she was moving at Belmont compared to Pimlico makes me believe the jockey. I dont really care that the race was given a 108... what does that mean anyway? I'm going off of what my eyes saw... not that that means anything either.

[tector]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

So what? She beat nothing by open lengths and ran fast doing so. On the other hand, Z has collapsed ELEVEN races in a row, with the same running style. Anyone not fixated on 'FAST' would, at some point, conclude, that maybe she's not SLOW. If she were coming in the lane of the Preakness, rather than the FAST Mine that Bird, doubtful that the RA hangs on.

What a conundrum.

Dude, go back to one of the early Beyer books--somewhere among them there is a chapter entitled something like "How was the figured earned". Reread it, then check out the Preakness again. Maybe you will learn something.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by tector

Dude, go back to one of the early Beyer books--somewhere among them there is a chapter entitled something like "How was the figured earned". Reread it, then check out the Preakness again. Maybe you will learn something.

DUDE

I'm every bit as good a trip handicapper as BEYER. That much you can bank on.
There's NOTHING in any of BEYER's books that will enlighten my perspective of the Preakness. But, thanks for suggesting how I can take my game down a few notches.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

But let me get this FAST thing straight. Mine that Bird WASN'T FAST, then he was FAST.

Hard to be fast on anyone's final time figures when you get drowned by the great Kelly Leak.

You'll be happy to know ... he was FAST on pace figs though! Do you hate parital race figs as much as final time figs?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Hard to be fast on anyone's final time figures when you get drowned by the great Kelly Leak.

You'll be happy to know ... he was FAST on pace figs though! Do you hate parital race figs as much as final time figs?

Kind of hard to gauge his ability when that is the only route race he's had on dirt.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Kind of hard to gauge his ability when that is the only route race he's had on dirt.

The immortal Gabby's Golden Gal ran a faster final time the same day going a route in the Sunland Oaks ... albeit with a candy trip and all.

I doubt KL is that much on dirt.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I think she ran AWESOME in last years distaff... prolly her 2nd best race behind her real dirt win. With saying that I think she would have ran 2nd in last years classic... which would have still been an incredible achievement.

She's a spectacular filly who I'd like to see run against some actual competition. The only way she does that is running against boys or Rachel.

I'd bet against her with two fists in the Classic & against Rachel... but I hope she actually does it and proves me wrong because her career has been BORING save a couple races.

Winning from dead last is a great feat.. but come on.. do it against some other fast horses PLEASE!

I couldnt agree more. Theres just something lacking in races run on polytrack. Pretty much all her races look the same. Zenyatta is freaking awesome but its a pity she couldnt be doing this on the east coast on dirt. Lets face it, we all know who the more memorable horse will be 5 years from now...unless of course they decide to run that horse on dirt.