Belmont Beyers

[nomad]

I don't use Beyers but I have read his books and have tremendous respect for him.
I'm an old timer. I still use speed ratings & consider variants. When I handicap, the Beyer figures are rarely a consideration. I have noticed they are not far off from the figures I use. They are supposed to figure track pars for you. They don't. If they were so good, they would give you a winner more than 1/3 of the time, which is what they claim. Morning line favorite also gives you 1/3 winners. You can't make money like that.
Bottom line for me is that the Beyers are throw outs 2/3 of the time, just like morning lines.

Does that make sense?

[King Glorious]

My biggest problem with them is that they are adjusted to fit. I've always felt that a race should be left alone to tell whatever story it tells, not what story the figure maker wants to believe it should tell. One of the things I don't understand is that figure makers feel like a number should fit in with a certain pattern a horse may have. I think that's very dangerous to do because the objective of a horse is not the same everytime. Take 2yo/3yo during the winter and into the spring. Often, in each new race, they are taking on new challenges. A horse might run his first race of the year at 7f around one-turn and earn a 95. His second race might be his first try at 8.5f or his first try at two-turns and he might be shipping and running on a new surface. Also, that first race, the trainer might only have him at 70% cranked because he doesn't want him peaking too early but this race he's now at about 80-85% tightened. How can an accurate projection be made on what he's supposed to do? Or it could be a horse that has run 100-110 for five straight races, all sprints, being stretched out for the first time. He then runs a figure of 85 going 9f. How does anyone know that he didn't run his race? How does anyone know what his normal 9f figure would be? How can you project accurately? Why should you expect the same effort in the Jim Dandy that you do in the Travers? Why should you expect the same effort in the Fountain of Youth that you get in the Florida Derby? That's never made sense to me.

[letswastemoney]

maybe it's all a scam to make people bet the wrong horses, so that the beyer figure makers can rake in all the real money j/k

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

My biggest problem with them is that they are adjusted to fit. I've always felt that a race should be left alone to tell whatever story it tells, not what story the figure maker wants to believe it should tell. One of the things I don't understand is that figure makers feel like a number should fit in with a certain pattern a horse may have. I think that's very dangerous to do because the objective of a horse is not the same everytime. Take 2yo/3yo during the winter and into the spring. Often, in each new race, they are taking on new challenges. A horse might run his first race of the year at 7f around one-turn and earn a 95. His second race might be his first try at 8.5f or his first try at two-turns and he might be shipping and running on a new surface. Also, that first race, the trainer might only have him at 70% cranked because he doesn't want him peaking too early but this race he's now at about 80-85% tightened. How can an accurate projection be made on what he's supposed to do? Or it could be a horse that has run 100-110 for five straight races, all sprints, being stretched out for the first time. He then runs a figure of 85 going 9f. How does anyone know that he didn't run his race? How does anyone know what his normal 9f figure would be? How can you project accurately? Why should you expect the same effort in the Jim Dandy that you do in the Travers? Why should you expect the same effort in the Fountain of Youth that you get in the Florida Derby? That's never made sense to me.

KG... Honestly, you don't understand what figure-making is all about or how it works based on this... There are multiple horses in a race and multiple races on a card. The figures aren't made in an isolated fashion based on the performance of one horse in one race in a vacuum. They're formulated on the day's racing in its' entirity.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by nomad

I don't use Beyers but I have read his books and have tremendous respect for him.
I'm an old timer. I still use speed ratings & consider variants. When I handicap, the Beyer figures are rarely a consideration. I have noticed they are not far off from the figures I use. They are supposed to figure track pars for you. They don't. If they were so good, they would give you a winner more than 1/3 of the time, which is what they claim. Morning line favorite also gives you 1/3 winners. You can't make money like that.
Bottom line for me is that the Beyers are throw outs 2/3 of the time, just like morning lines.

Does that make sense?

Where has Beyer Associates ever claimed that the figures 'give you a winner' a third of the time or more?

Figures are a tool to provide at a glance the comparative speed of horses at different tracks, at different distances. Period. How you utilize them in your capping is your business. Hell, Beyer himself politely argued with me last week on ATR when I said there are patterns I can gleen from his figures to project performance.

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by nomad

I don't use Beyers but I have read his books and have tremendous respect for him.
I'm an old timer. I still use speed ratings & consider variants. When I handicap, the Beyer figures are rarely a consideration. I have noticed they are not far off from the figures I use. They are supposed to figure track pars for you. They don't. If they were so good, they would give you a winner more than 1/3 of the time, which is what they claim. Morning line favorite also gives you 1/3 winners. You can't make money like that.
Bottom line for me is that the Beyers are throw outs 2/3 of the time, just like morning lines.

Does that make sense?

I think that you're skipping a step here. Favorites win 1/3 of the time as everybody knows. Due to the widespread availability of Beyer numbers, horses that have run the highest figure on the page of PP's, or their personal best figure in their last race, tend to become favorites. So it's not that "Beyer claims 1/3 winners", it's more like "The best Beyer pick, as a favorite, wins 1/3 of the time."

[joeydb]

Hey Steve, is there a page we can get to that has all the Beyers from the race (not just the winner), like in a "results chart" format?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by joeydb

Hey Steve, is there a page we can get to that has all the Beyers from the race (not just the winner), like in a "results chart" format?

The only place for that I know of, is for graded stakes in the "Stakes Results" section of SIMULCAST DAILY within DRF.com. I imagine there is a similar format like that somewhere else though... On Formulator, you can jump through results to the individual horses in a race and find their Beyer, but that is obviously labor-intensive. I'll check with Lonnie Goldfedder at DRF and see if there is a product or locale for exactly what you want. It's a good question and I'm confident it exists in the ideal format.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The only place for that I know of, is for graded stakes in the "Stakes Results" section of SIMULCAST DAILY within DRF.com. I imagine there is a similar format like that somewhere else though... On Formulator, you can jump through results to the individual horses in a race and find their Beyer, but that is obviously labor-intensive. I'll check with Lonnie Goldfedder at DRF and see if there is a product or locale for exactly what you want. It's a good question and I'm confident it exists in the ideal format.

You can use the beaten lengths adjustments, available here among other places.