Belmont Fractions

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by CSC

I think Drugs addressed this yesterday and he is probably the best person here that can explain the raw numbers discussion so I am not even going to try, the problem with the 'if' scenario is we will never know, we will never know how fast he could have run from 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 on a lightning fast track, once again my opinion is he is not a 1 1/2 horse or certainly not as effective at a 1 1/4.

DrugS might be the best person to explain the raw numbers things but it doesn't matter as the raw number or any number thing is not the way to go. First, races are complex events that are not merely explainable in terms of how fast they're run (either in total or in sections). If these were time trials, then I'd be all for speed (and even pace) figures; but they're not. These races are about how they're played out. There are a number of 'types' of races and subsets of these types. Once you look at a few thousand of them, like I have, you start to get a sense of what's 'normal' and what isn't. Which horses ran well and which didn't. I could put a ton of effort into trying to fit races within my methodology, as all the figure makers apparently do, or I could let the horses in the race indicate to me what exactly is happening.

Thinking of these races in terms of numbers fails for a number or reasons: 1) numbers bias one's interpretation of the race: fast splits are supposed to indicate one thing, slow splits another, YET, we constantly (especially on poly and turf) see that these supposed truisms are really wise tails, as there are countless counterexamples. Refer back to the slow pace biased interpretations of the Gotham, for example. 2) numbers is just one way of looking at the race; that set is a subset of a larger set, the race itself, and thus is not comprehensive.

You of all people should be aware of some of this **** as you play quite a bit of turf and poly. You should be aware of how important bursts are in races and how taking a break from one of these bursts while the others are all out is a HUGE advantage. (The Sartinistas get some of this, as do the Match Up guys, but they don't do it within the context of the race.) This is exactly what SB did. And, you should also be equally aware of what moving prematurely does to a horse.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You should be aware of how important bursts are in races and how taking a break from one of these bursts while the others are all out is a HUGE advantage. This is exactly what SB did. And, you should also be equally aware of what moving prematurely does to a horse.

As you know I've stated before the Belmont the reasons why I liked Summer Bird and why I didn't like the chances of Mine That Bird. While as outrageous at the time it may have seemed I truly believed Summer Bird was going to win the Belmont even if Rachel Alexandra was running(I wish she had), he was the best horse from a value standpoint, from a distance profile, running style, in terms of a horse coming up to a race, all the reasons you want to see in a horse coming up to a big race. You mention bursts in races, and my problem with Mine that Bird is on a dry track he has he has only one quick burst to expend in a race, which may work on turf courses, but something that in my opinion not as effective in a dirt race at 1 1/2 at Belmont. Summer Bird on the other hand has a efficient grinding style that can be sustained (watch him gallop out) and that worked to his advantage Sat, it is my belief with the blinkers added for this race he could have layed closer to the pace as he basically dragged the Kent around the track until he was given his cue, to suggest that MTB would have done the same thing is a leap, he cannot race close to the pace or certainly hasn't been successful at it to this point. These are 2 vastly different horses and really I think Borel is being made a scapegoat for perhaps losing 1 placing at most. I am confident if they ran the race over again, Summer Bird would win over 80% of time unless Ice plans on having Rosier back aboard. The only way he could lose it is if he was too far back. Finally Kent D didn't win the race, Summer Bird did, all Kent D did was have him closer to the pace than Rosier did with the aid of blinkers...and steer him in the right direction.

[the_fat_man]

Here's the chart for the race; try to make some sense of it. Try to look at it objectively. That's the last of it from me.

This should also answer Fischer's question about MTB and Dunkirk. We wouldn't want him to hurt himself.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Here's the chart for the race; try to make some sense of it. Try to look at it objectively. That's the last of it from me.

This should also answer Fischer's question about MTB and Dunkirk. We wouldn't want him to hurt himself.

Basically the what 'if' scenario for Mine That Bird Sat is he would need a perfect trip, perfect pace set up and perfectly timed ride to even have a chance of winning the Belmont. Is this really the argument one wants to make that this was the best horse that ran Sat? Anyway I too have said enough on this, I'll let others take over the discussion unless I have anything new to add to it.

[cmorioles]

One thing that is lost in this, in my opinion, is that the premature move was the only way he was going to beat Dunkirk. Allowing him to run up front through moderate fractions (yes, moderate), and waiting til the end was not going to work either.

I think with a better ride, he was 2nd, just perhaps a different horse winning if he waits.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

One thing that is lost in this, in my opinion, is that the premature move was the only way he was going to beat Dunkirk. Allowing him to run up front through moderate fractions (yes, moderate), and waiting til the end was not going to work either.

It is tough to tell. Charitable Man did make it ten furlongs so he may have been able to press Dunkirk long enough to soften him up for the stretch. Who knows, maybe no early move by Mine that Bird could have made for a Dunkirk/Charitable Man/Mine that Bird/Summer Bird superfecta.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

One thing that is lost in this, in my opinion, is that the premature move was the only way he was going to beat Dunkirk. Allowing him to run up front through moderate fractions (yes, moderate), and waiting til the end was not going to work either.

I think with a better ride, he was 2nd, just perhaps a different horse winning if he waits.

I disagree with this. And this is something that's fundamental to the way we're taught to interpret the game. If you look at the chart, Charitable Man would've given Dunkirk all he wanted, notice how he passes him, and this was all MTB would've needed. Moreover, sooner or later these jocks will learn that the best time to go after a loose speed is NOT on the turn but as late as possible in the lane. You might not get the speed this way but you have a better chance of getting a strong front runner later than earlier and you also salvage 2nd by not collapsing the race for the last mover (like MTB did).

MTB didn't need a perfect trip to win; that was SB's requirement. All MTB needed was a reasonably timed ride.

[CSC]

To date MTB's best races have come from sitting chilly usually in the rear of the field and then running a fast final 1/4, historically it is difficult enough to pass 3 horses in the Belmont stretch as Summer Bird did, is it really logical to expect MTB to pass the entire field saying he is dead last at the 1/4 pole before he makes his one quick burst especially outrunning a horse that was dead fit and relishing the distance? Factoring in that MTB was rank in the body of the race.

[sdjcom]

yes calvin misjudged the pace,and i give him the benefit of the doubt that MTB was fighting him and a little rank so he let him go early, hell even willie the shoe misjudged the finish, so he's human. Also i think if he would have waited longer the outcome would have probably been the same. The three races just took a little out of him but remember he still finish third. He really wanted the calvin crown and that was some pressure, but he's human and the limlight the last few weeks ,it's hard to focus, but hell take it while you can, and besides not me or anyone else on here has ever had their big butt on a racehorse at 40 mph so who am i to say what calvin felt on the ride. i give him a pass, but i'm sure he learned a lot about staying focused all week up to a big race,and how about that,KD? the monkey off his back and he will be a relaxed force to deal with the rest of his career,congraulations to him.

[tiggerv]

Good stuff TFM. I always enjoy the graphs.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Here's the chart for the race; try to make some sense of it. Try to look at it objectively. That's the last of it from me.

This should also answer Fischer's question about MTB and Dunkirk. We wouldn't want him to hurt himself.

With the Fat Chart it appears that either Dunkirk or Mine That Bird ran the two best races, and that Summer Bird was worst.

My impression from the race was that Summer Bird was best.
The logical question would be "was Summer Bird capable of more, had he been asked for more?" - and that answer is almost always "No".
Still I am not 100% sold that Summer Bird wasn't best.

I see the big dramatic line angle of Mine That Birds move...
and I see the half mile break that Dunkirk gets.
But I am also stubbornly aware of the 1st quarter that Dunkirk sets(and Mine That Bird contrasting 11 lengths behind) and how fast that is for 3yos going 1.5miles.