6/6 (BEL): Belmont; Manhattan; Acorn; Just a Game; Et Al..

[Dunbar]

For those who are pretty sure Mine That Bird won't/can't win, there's this attractive bet at 5Dimes and Pinnacle:

Mine That Bird wins Belmont +170
Field wins Belmont Stakes -200

(At Pinnacle it's +193/-215)

So you only have to lay 2-1 to collect some easy Mine-That-Bird-can't-win money.

Personally, I think those 2 books have it lined just right.

--Dunbar

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

For those who are pretty sure Mine That Bird won't/can't win, there's this attractive bet at 5Dimes and Pinnacle:

Mine That Bird wins Belmont +170
Field wins Belmont Stakes -200

(At Pinnacle it's +193/-215)

So you only have to lay 2-1 to collect some easy Mine-That-Bird-can't-win money.

Personally, I think those 2 books have it lined just right.

--Dunbar

I agree ( again ). I'm happy to bet against Mine That Bird but I also think he's in the 30% to 35% range to win.

[Dunbar]

Here are the best offshore future prices for the Belmont using TheGreek, Pinnacle and 5Dimes:

Choc Candy 11.75 Pinn
Dunkirk 4.85 Greek
Mr. Hot Stuff 22 Pinn
Summer Bird 11.01 Pinn
Luv Gov 52.5 Greek
Charitable Man 3.65 Greek
Mine That Bird 1.93 Pinn
Flying Private 30.5 Greek
Miner's Escape 40.5 Greek
Brave Victory 40.5 Greek

That combined line has a 3% takeout. The biggest differences in the 3 books are on Flying Private and Luv Gov. TheGreek had Flying Private at +2550 yesterday and is up to +3050 today. Meanwhile, both Pinnacle and 5Dimes are around 15-1 for Flying Private. TheGreek is also much more generous on Luv Gov. Luv Gov is 30-1 at the other 2 books.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Here are the best offshore future prices for the Belmont using TheGreek, Pinnacle and 5Dimes:

Choc Candy 11.75 Pinn
Dunkirk 4.85 Greek
Mr. Hot Stuff 22 Pinn
Summer Bird 11.01 Pinn
Luv Gov 52.5 Greek
Charitable Man 3.65 Greek
Mine That Bird 1.93 Pinn
Flying Private 30.5 Greek
Miner's Escape 40.5 Greek
Brave Victory 40.5 Greek

That combined line has a 3% takeout. The biggest differences in the 3 books are on Flying Private and Luv Gov. TheGreek had Flying Private at +2550 yesterday and is up to +3050 today. Meanwhile, both Pinnacle and 5Dimes are around 15-1 for Flying Private. TheGreek is also much more generous on Luv Gov. Luv Gov is 30-1 at the other 2 books.

Overnight changes:

The most amusing change, to me at least, is that Pinnacle's odds on Miner's Escape and Brave Victory have dropped from 40-1 to 14.8-1. Only a few other small changes at Pinnacle, including lowering Mine That Bird from 1.93-1 to 1.90-1.

At TheGreek, the only change at all was a lowering of Mine That Bird's odds from 1.85-1 to 1.6-1.

5Dimes did a lot of tweaking, but still isn't offering the best odds on any horse.

--Dunbar