6/6 (BEL): Belmont; Manhattan; Acorn; Just a Game; Et Al..

[Gander]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Miner's Escape looks like a horse to me that has the running style and the pedigree that might allow him to steal the race, or at least hold on for a minor share. He definitely seems to be a different and improving horse after being stretched out.
But, do you guys think Da Tara's performance last year will turn Miner's Escape from a possible overlay into an underlay because a lot of people will love the Zito/LaPenta longshot angle?

No, I think you will get your price on Miners Escape, for no other reason because the Big 3 will be taking down the majority of all win bets.

I think he'll be every bit of 30/1.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Gander

No, I think you will get your price on Miners Escape, for no other reason because the Big 3 will be taking down the majority of all win bets.

I think he'll be every bit of 30/1.

I honestly think he's an underlay at 50-1. His best BSF is 89 and next best is 74. He hasn't run farther than 9 furlongs, and he ran the final 1/8th in just under 13 secs last time out. What's to like?

--Dunbar

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I honestly think he's an underlay at 50-1. His best BSF is 89 and next best is 74. He hasn't run farther than 9 furlongs, and he ran the final 1/8th in just under 13 secs last time out. What's to like?

--Dunbar

Really? An underlay at 50-1?
You are obviously right about him not fitting in terms of speed figures with even his lifetime best being well short of the big three in this race (and even the stupid Lukas colt), but that is why he might be in the 20/1 - 25/1 range. He isn't one of the more likely winners, but if you aren't a big believer in most of the other colts in this race - and I'm not - I think you could do worse than having a decent Mineshaft/Broad Brush sitting in first or second after 9f at something like 20/1. The others are likely going to need to go by him at some point, and while Dunkirk and Mine that Bird are probably good enough to do just that, I wouldn't be shocked to see him hang on for at least a share. But then again, I liked that Pletcher horse as a longshot in the Preakness, and I think he just finished that race about 5 minutes ago....so what do I know?

I also kind of like Summer Bird. All in all I think it is a pretty interesting race to ponder.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I honestly think he's an underlay at 50-1. His best BSF is 89 and next best is 74. He hasn't run farther than 9 furlongs, and he ran the final 1/8th in just under 13 secs last time out. What's to like?

--Dunbar

The fact that there's no speed in the race? Wouldn't you have said the same thing about Da' Tara last year? Fool me once..

[Gander]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The fact that there's no speed in the race? Wouldn't you have said the same thing about Da' Tara last year? Fool me once..

I see this race a bit differntly than most on here. I see Charitable Man being the clear speed and I am not talking about him just having "lope along" speed in a race without any. Hes got real speed and I expect him to be the clear early leader. Just hoping at least 1-2 others keep this pace honest.

As far as Miners Escape, I dont see him as a board factor. I think he'll get used up in trying to chase Charitable Man.

Da Tara was a shocker last year and I would have said before the race, no way he can win. But looking back, there was really 1 horse to beat (Big Brown) and he had quite the "off day!" For Miners Escape to win, wouldnt 3 horses have to have "off days?"

And going into last year's Belmont, didnt Big Brown appear as "lone speed?"
I played Da Tara on Preakness Day, damn I wish I played him back!

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Gander

I see this race a bit differntly than most on here. I see Charitable Man being the clear speed and I am not talking about him just having "lope along" speed in a race without any. Hes got real speed and I expect him to be the clear early leader. Just hoping at least 1-2 others keep this pace honest.

As far as Miners Escape, I dont see him as a board factor. I think he'll get used up in trying to chase Charitable Man.

Da Tara was a shocker last year and I would have said before the race, no way he can win. But looking back, there was really 1 horse to beat (Big Brown) and he had quite the "off day!" For Miners Escape to win, wouldnt 3 horses have to have "off days?"

And going into last year's Belmont, didnt Big Brown appear as "lone speed?"
I played Da Tara on Preakness Day, damn I wish I played him back!

timmy - it's raining now down here , guess who likes the slop!!

[Port Conway Lane]

I'd like to know why Miners Escape is considered a pace factor in this race.He was sitting behind Tone It Down in the Tesio in a slow 48 4/5 and Tone It Down could do no better than 9th place in the early going in the Preakness.

Brave Victory is just as capable of being on the lead in a slow pace as Miners Escape is and has shown in his sprints that he is the second fastest sprinter in the field behind Charitable Man.

That being said Miners Escape is certainly bred for the distance more so than his stablemate so I can't dismiss his chances based on his breeding. I just don't see him as a horse who will provide a meaningful pace.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by gales0678

timmy - it's raining now down here , guess who likes the slop!!

I dont think its going to be sloppy tomorrow.

[gales0678]

i don't think it will matter , you know when our man picks pletcher he becomes an auto toss

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The fact that there's no speed in the race? Wouldn't you have said the same thing about Da' Tara last year? Fool me once..

Originally Posted by peetsa

You probably said the same thing about Mine That Bird in the Derby also. oops.

Yes, I absolutely said the same thing or worse in those two cases! I had Da' Tara at 60-1 in my line for last year's Belmont. I had Mine That Bird at 100-1 in my Ky Derby line. Given the same info up to the point of those races, I wouldn't rework those odds.

The fact that longshots sometimes win doesn't suggest to me that betting longshots is now automatically a good idea. I don't get the "no speed in the race" rationale, either, ateam. Miner's Escape's "speed" is clearly not a lone-speed type of speed, what with Charitable Man and Dunkirk running. And even in a 9 furlong race, he could only muster a 12.9 sec final furlong.

How is a horse that in its best race finishes 9 furlongs with a 12.9 after a 48.8 half going to win this 12-furlong race? It would take more than a 50-1 set of circumstances IMO.

--Dunbar

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Yes, I absolutely said the same thing or worse in those two cases! I had Da' Tara at 60-1 in my line for last year's Belmont. I had Mine That Bird at 100-1 in my Ky Derby line. Given the same info up to the point of those races, I wouldn't rework those odds.

The fact that longshots sometimes win doesn't suggest to me that betting longshots is now automatically a good idea. I don't get the "no speed in the race" rationale, either, ateam. Miner's Escape's "speed" is clearly not a lone-speed type of speed, what with Charitable Man and Dunkirk running. And even in a 9 furlong race, he could only muster a 12.9 sec final furlong.

How is a horse that in its best race finishes 9 furlongs with a 12.9 after a 48.8 half going to win this 12-furlong race? It would take more than a 50-1 set of circumstances IMO.

--Dunbar

Dunbar - i read somewhere in the NY post where a columnist picked MTB for the belmont saying he thought he should be odds on and since he projects him to go off at 8/5 or 9/5 , MTB offers good value to win , do you agree?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by gales0678

Dunbar - i read somewhere in the NY post where a columnist picked MTB for the belmont saying he thought he should be odds on and since he projects him to go off at 8/5 or 9/5 , MTB offers good value to win , do you agree?

No, I don't agree he should be odds on. I do think he is a solid favorite and that his fair odds are in the 8/5 to 9/5 range. I'd need 2-1 to consider a bet; I'd be happy to bet him at 5-2.

--Dunbar

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

No, I don't agree he should be odds on. I do think he is a solid favorite and that his fair odds are in the 8/5 to 9/5 range. I'd need 2-1 to consider a bet; I'd be happy to bet him at 5-2.

--Dunbar

thx

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Yes, I absolutely said the same thing or worse in those two cases! I had Da' Tara at 60-1 in my line for last year's Belmont. I had Mine That Bird at 100-1 in my Ky Derby line. Given the same info up to the point of those races, I wouldn't rework those odds.

The fact that longshots sometimes win doesn't suggest to me that betting longshots is now automatically a good idea. I don't get the "no speed in the race" rationale, either, ateam. Miner's Escape's "speed" is clearly not a lone-speed type of speed, what with Charitable Man and Dunkirk running. And even in a 9 furlong race, he could only muster a 12.9 sec final furlong.

How is a horse that in its best race finishes 9 furlongs with a 12.9 after a 48.8 half going to win this 12-furlong race? It would take more than a 50-1 set of circumstances IMO.

--Dunbar

Not a speed horse.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Not a speed horse.

Right, but you have to believe he's going to be closer than he's ever been if they go :49 or so.

NT

[hockey2315]

I hope so because he's my top choice in the race, but I don't understand how Dunkirk factors into Dunbar's argument against Miner's Escape at all.

[peetsa]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I honestly think he's an underlay at 50-1. His best BSF is 89 and next best is 74. He hasn't run farther than 9 furlongs, and he ran the final 1/8th in just under 13 secs last time out. What's to like?

--Dunbar

You probably said the same thing about Mine That Bird in the Derby also. oops.