5/28 DRF ROTD: Belmont 1st

[dean smith]

Could a more experienced player please explain to me why #3 Stormy Success would be 30/1 on the ML? It spooks me to the point that I feel if I use him I'm playing into some kind of sucker scenario. (Looking at Brisnet PPs) He's got a 100 speed fig. last out (1 1/16 sf turf, Kingston 100K), 2nd in the Prime Power ratings, and poor turf jockey and trainer notwithstanding, he finished just 2 lengths behind today's ML fav, Groomed for Victory (3/1) the last time they hooked up (off turf in slop).

Any thoughts?

[Bobby Fischer]

7 looks best on paper.

the 6 could be good. 1 and 8 underneath

[Mike]

Originally Posted by dean smith

Could a more experienced player please explain to me why #3 Stormy Success would be 30/1 on the ML? It spooks me to the point that I feel if I use him I'm playing into some kind of sucker scenario. (Looking at Brisnet PPs) He's got a 100 speed fig. last out (1 1/16 sf turf, Kingston 100K), 2nd in the Prime Power ratings, and poor turf jockey and trainer notwithstanding, he finished just 2 lengths behind today's ML fav, Groomed for Victory (3/1) the last time they hooked up (off turf in slop).

Any thoughts?

This is a good example of discrepancies between DRF and Bris pps, much of which is due to a big difference in speed figs at this level. The Bris speed figs would show little difference in these 2nd level N.Y. state-breds and the figs they give to the Breeders Cup Turf entries. The Beyers show greater disparity at this relatively low level

Of course, Stormy Success could have finally turned the corner at age 5, 2 out of his last three were good and led to high Brisnet figures

Figures aside, that was a 3rd place showing in a $100+k stakes last out. Brisnet will tell you his current class is also tops in the field

[dean smith]

Originally Posted by Mike

This is a good example of discrepancies between DRF and Bris pps, much of which is due to a big difference in speed figs at this level. The Bris speed figs would show little difference in these 2nd level N.Y. state-breds and the figs they give to the Breeders Cup Turf entries. The Beyers show greater disparity at this relatively low level

Of course, Stormy Success could have finally turned the corner at age 5, 2 out of his last three were good and led to high Brisnet figures

Figures aside, that was a 3rd place showing in a $100+k stakes last out. Brisnet will tell you his current class is also tops in the field

So, are you saying the Brisnet PPs are more insightful in this case, or misleading?

[Mike]

Originally Posted by dean smith

So, are you saying the Brisnet PPs are more insightful in this case, or misleading?

Others here can probably explain things better. My thinking is that the Brisnet pp's are more likely misleading than not.

It brings up a question. I know there used to be The Form, the DRF, to use in the form of a newspaper in hand to help handicap and imagine probabilities and likelihoods in one's mind. A competing set of pp's may have more weaknesses but may also point out some other perspective

Stormy Success is no value with 34 mtp, however

[Mike]

The DRF pp's go way back and show Stormy Success to probably have peaked as a racehorse long ago, but on weird surfaces, ocassionally comes flying at the end, rising to the level of the competition(IMO)

The last figure from Brisnet is unlikely to be repeated and is probably a result of their lack of adjusting(as the Beyers do) for the Soft turf that day

I'm betting a 1-5 exacta box

[philcski]

I like the 1. Probably needed the last and beat Cannonball two back pretty handily, who would be 2/5 against this group.

$20 WP 1
$5 exactas 1/5,6,7,8 $3 exactas 5,6,7,8/1
$1 tri 1/5,6,7,8/5,6,7,8

[gales0678]

$5 ex box

1,5,8,9

[Ronnie]

3,4,7 exacta box

[dean smith]

Originally Posted by gales0678

$5 ex box

1,5,8,9

Niiiiiice hit! $199 X 2.5 (not doing the math)

[geeker2]

$20 W 9
$2 ex all/9

gl

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by geeker2

$20 W 9
$2 ex all/9 $199.50

gl

enough now to get on the Byk P4 Train today

[Mike]

Since the removal of blinkers Stormy Success has had 2 of 3 good races.

Anyone have a Formulator version that will show a replay of that April 22 out of the money race? I wonder if he had an excuse, if so, the blinkers off move may explain recent and continued success.