Transcript of Zayat, Allen on HRTV

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by justindew

So?

I got 10-1 odds that a horse who had almost won a Grade I would ultimately win Grade I someday. I'd hardly call that a bad bet. Especially since there are enough Grade I races in America these days for everyone.

So the point is you're touting how close you came to predicting he'd win a Grade I when he never, ever came close to winning one after you made the prediction. You got 10-1? Great.

If I were to say to you today that I think Chocolate Candy will win a Grade I some day and we fast forward 2 yrs and he never does, I definitely wouldn't say "well, look at me, he came within a length!"

NT

[justindew]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

So the point is you're touting how close you came to predicting he'd win a Grade I when he never, ever came close to winning one after you made the prediction. You got 10-1? Great.

If I were to say to you today that I think Chocolate Candy will win a Grade I some day and we fast forward 2 yrs and he never does, I definitely wouldn't say "well, look at me, he came within a length!"

NT

You have missed the point entirely.

I'm not touting anything. I'm defending a prediction that I made and a subsequent bet at 10-1 that Zanjero would one day win a Grade I. That bet/prediction has been called "stupid" among other things. My point is that it was hardly a stupid, bold, or unreasonable thing to predict considering his near-win in a Grade I PRIOR to the bet I made. Was it ultimately incorrect? Of course. So what?

Is this really that hard to understand? (I find myself asking this question a lot here lately.)

[justindew]

And the fact of the matter is that I first made the prediction on KentuckyDerby.com two days before the 2007 Blue Grass Stakes in my pre-race write-up. Hence my description of the predictions as those that I had made "this spring." And I only re-posted it on DT.com because for some reason I insist on being held accountable for all of my predictions. Big mistake.

[blackthroatedwind]

Justin is determined to keep fighting the good fight.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by justindew

You have missed the point entirely.

I'm not touting anything. I'm defending a prediction that I made and a subsequent bet at 10-1 that Zanjero would one day win a Grade I. That bet/prediction has been called "stupid" among other things. My point is that it was hardly a stupid, bold, or unreasonable thing to predict considering his near-win in a Grade I PRIOR to the bet I made. Was it ultimately incorrect? Of course. So what?

Is this really that hard to understand? (I find myself asking this question a lot here lately.)

The old "I was wrong...so what?" line is great. Unfortunately, it never changes the fact that you were wrong.

I have no interest in further discussing your wrong prediction nor the merits of a B-list handicap horse.

NT

[justindew]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

The old "I was wrong...so what?" line is great. Unfortunately, it never changes the fact that you were wrong.

I have no interest in further discussing your wrong prediction nor the merits of a B-list handicap horse.

NT

So that answers the question "Where does NTamm1215 draw the line on misunderstanding very simple discussions?"

Answer: 3 posts.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

If by misunderstanding you mean calling you out for boasting about how close you were to being right on something where you were actually wrong then yes, I misunderstood you horribly.

NT

Make that 4.

[justindew]

Ah, the dreaded "too slow delete."

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

So the point is you're touting how close you came to predicting he'd win a Grade I when he never, ever came close to winning one after you made the prediction. You got 10-1? Great.

If I were to say to you today that I think Chocolate Candy will win a Grade I some day and we fast forward 2 yrs and he never does, I definitely wouldn't say "well, look at me, he came within a length!"

NT

I completely agree with this... was going to post something similar but I figured someone else would!

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I completely agree with this... was going to post something similar but I figured someone else would!

Do you understand that I was not bragging about the prediction, and was instead defending the merits of the prediction against people who have said it was "stupid",etc.?

I have never said it was correct.

My God, this is madness.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by justindew

Do you understand that I was not bragging about the prediction, and was instead defending the merits of the prediction against people who have said it was "stupid",etc.?

I have never said it was correct.

My God, this is madness.

And you think I'm misunderstanding?

Earlier in this thread when you asked Brian which of your predictions he disagreed with you then followed up where you said, "You do realize he came within a half-length of winning a Grade I, right?"

Was that not an attempt to validate your prediction?

NT

[justindew]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

And you think I'm misunderstanding?

Earlier in this thread when you asked Brian which of your predictions he disagreed with you then followed up where you said, "You do realize he came within a half-length of winning a Grade I, right?"

Was that not an attempt to validate your prediction?

NT

Not at all. It was in response to Brian calling my prediction "sheer lunacy."

[Antitrust32]

I cant wait to see him try to explain his post to andy in the Derby re cap thread.

"Calling it a tie because the horse ran 2nd in a grade I before I made the bet was not an attempt to validate my prediction"

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I cant wait to see him try to explain his post to andy in the Derby re cap thread.

"Calling it a tie because the horse ran 2nd in a grade I before I made the bet was not an attempt to validate my prediction"

Come on.....surely you realize he was joking.

[justindew]

Here's how....

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I cant wait to see him try to explain his post to andy in the Derby re cap thread.

"Calling it a tie because the horse ran 2nd in a grade I before I made the bet was not an attempt to validate my prediction"

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by justindew

Not at all. It was in response to Brian calling my prediction "sheer lunacy."

Originally Posted by justindew

No. She does not. Humor, nuance, and irony are simply over the heads of 90% of the posters here.

Speaking of nuance.

Like the part where NT continues to point out that the fact that Zanjero "almost" won a Grade I does not mean that having bet Zanjero to win a Grade I was any more a good decision than had he never come within 10 lengths of doing so?

Seriously, thank God you're here to ensure we meet that 10% threshold of people who understand things like nuance, right?

And I was actually starting to feel like the excessive amoun of crap you catch was unfair....and you just reminded me why it keeps happening.

Figures.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Speaking of nuance.

Like the part where NT continues to point out that the fact that Zanjero "almost" won a Grade I does not mean that having bet Zanjero to win a Grade I was any more a good decision than had he never come within 10 lengths of doing so?

Seriously, thank God you're here to ensure we meet that 10% threshold of people who understand things like nuance, right?

And I was actually starting to feel like the excessive amoun of crap you catch was unfair....and you just reminded me why it keeps happening.

Figures.

Do you agree that there is a difference between a losing bet and a dumb bet? All I have said is that the Zanjero prediction/bet was not dumb. Period.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by justindew

Do you understand that I was not bragging about the prediction, and was instead defending the merits of the prediction against people who have said it was "stupid",etc.?

I have never said it was correct.

My God, this is madness.

Justin,

This is what you posted in that thread you started:

I disagree with this entire post.

And Zanjero came within half a length of winning a Grade I. We'll call that one a tie.

And Bittel Road has yet to appear in a claiming race. Score one for me.

I'll concede that Nobiz Like Shobiz was NOT the best of his generation.

Justin: 1
Andy: 1
Tie: 1
__________________



by saying that people would assume you made the bet prior to Zanjero running second in a Grade I.

You really cant call it a tie when it happened before the bet is made...

You were wrong, and even more wrong when we all found out the horse was a 1/2 length loser in a Grade I BEFORE you made the bet.

So I'm just going to amend it for you.

Justin: 1
Andy: 2

and there is a good chance you will be down 3-0 after Bittle Road races some more.



The funny thing is, I think the Nobiz bet was the best one you made. He may have not been the best in his generation but he was a classy horse and had a very good career (relatively speaking).

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Justin,

This is what you posted in that thread you started:

I disagree with this entire post.

And Zanjero came within half a length of winning a Grade I. We'll call that one a tie.

And Bittel Road has yet to appear in a claiming race. Score one for me.

I'll concede that Nobiz Like Shobiz was NOT the best of his generation.

Justin: 1
Andy: 1
Tie: 1
__________________



by saying that people would assume you made the bet prior to Zanjero running second in a Grade I.

You really cant call it a tie when it happened before the bet is made...

You were wrong, and even more wrong when we all found out the horse was a 1/2 length loser in a Grade I BEFORE you made the bet.

So I'm just going to amend it for you.

Justin: 1
Andy: 2

and there is a good chance you will be down 3-0 after Bittle Road races some more.



The funny thing is, I think the Nobiz bet was the best one you made. He may have not been the best in his generation but he was a classy horse and had a very good career (relatively speaking).

Andy and I both know I was kidding.

Also, the debate about Zanjero began months before I had ever even heard of this website. I made a bet with a fellow blogger on KentuckyDerby.com (whom Andy knows personally) that Zanjero would win a Grade I someday. My comment to Andy was referring to that initial prediction, which came BEFORE the Blue Grass Stakes. My initial post about that bet here was simply me not being afraid to keep score publicly.

I know it's hard for some to believe, but not all that happens happens on DerbyTrail.com.