134th Preakness Field Close to Set

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by nomad

The derby winner should not be discounted. Just what he did on the off track, beating the best 3yos in the country by 7 lengths, should make him the post time favorite, but he won't be. All the experts will think it was a fluke, But this is no fluke. This is one talented horse.

I'm leaning more toward this way.Instead of drawing a line through the Derby win I'm drawing a line through the previous eight races.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I'm leaning more toward this way.Instead of drawing a line through the Derby win I'm drawing a line through the previous eight races.

including his four wins?

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

including his four wins?

just think how much more this horse would have looked better in those 4 races if a former NYRA jockey wasn't riding this horse last year in CAD

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by gales0678

just think how much more this horse would have looked better in those 4 races if a former NYRA jockey wasn't riding this horse last year in CAD

Marty,

I'm sorry... Not trying to be flippant or insulting, but please try to restructure this into a comprehensible sentence. I've read it 8 times and have yet to decipher its' intent. I'm confident it includes our neighbor to the North ('CAD'); Chantel Sutherland ('former NYRA jockey') and Mine That Bird ('this horse' x 2).

Other than that, I'm stymied.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Marty,

I'm sorry... Not trying to be flippant or insulting, but please try to restructure this into a comprehensible sentence. I've read it 8 times and have yet to decipher its' intent. I'm confident it includes our neighbor to the North ('CAD'); Chantel Sutherland ('former NYRA jockey') and Mine That Bird ('this horse' x 2).

Other than that, I'm stymied.

steve - the wording is bad , i tried to edit it 1x and botched it again, i am paranoid about using the edit button too much on one post because of comments from the peanut gallery

what i'm trying to say to lori is this - chantal rode the horse last year in CAD , maybe if a better jockey was on MTB in the WO races he would have even won by more in those races and thus looked better in the form

she a great looking gal , no question about it , but there was a reason that she had to move back to CAD no? was she getting a lot of business down here? there were some pretty crazy rides by her down here at NYRA , i think even some people pointed it out on this board. Did i watch all the races at Wo for MTB no , i can only specualte that maybe she won races because the horse was simply the best , but , maybe another jock would have moved MTB up even more

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by gales0678

what i'm trying to say to lori is this - chantal rode the horse last year in CAD , maybe if a better jockey was on MTB in the WO races he would have even won by more in those races and thus looked better in the form

she a great looking gal , no question about it , but there was a reason that she had to move back to CAD no? was she getting a lot of business down here? there were some pretty crazy rides by her down here at NYRA , i think even some people pointed it out on this board. Did i watch all the races at Wo for MTB no , i can only specualte that maybe she won races because the horse was simply the best , but , maybe another jock would have moved MTB up even more

There are worse riders, but overall, she's a bit of hazard out there. She rode the horse OK at Woodbine. Her ride in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile though was dreadful. The kid in New Mexico rode him lousy too and further darkened any form/potential anyone could possibly have uncovered as a result. He looked like a horse that hadn't progressed a step from 2 to 3.

Had any of us covering the race bothered to ask Borel or Woolley their strategy beforehand, it might have come out that they were changing their approach with him by planning to take back and come with one run. And even knowing that there was still little to go on to bet him as anything more than a super/high five filler.

They sought out Borel as his jock for a reason, as Woolley and Calvin told ATR this week. And I talked extensively with Jerry Hissam, Borel's agent, Monday, and he had some interesting background to add as well. As Baffert said, they had a plan and they got the racetrack and path they needed to execute it and the horse was ready and willing. Amazing really.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Kasept

There are worse riders, but overall, she's a bit of hazard out there. She rode the horse OK at Woodbine. Her ride in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile though was dreadful. The kid in New Mexico rode him lousy too and further darkened any form/potential anyone could possibly have uncovered as a result. He looked like a horse that hadn't progressed a step from 2 to 3.

Had any of us covering the race bothered to ask Borel or Woolley their strategy beforehand, it might have come out that they were changing their approach with him by planning to take back and come with one run. And even knowing that there was still little to go on to bet him as anything more than a super/high five filler.

They sought out Borel as his jock for a reason, as Woolley and Calvin told ATR this week. And I talked extensively with Jerry Hissam, Borel's agent, Monday, and he had some interesting background to add as well. As Baffert said, they had a plan and they got the racetrack and path they needed to execute it and the horse was ready and willing. Amazing really.

Steve - you bring up a good point here , things like this happens a lot in racing , the trainer knows he has the goods sometimes and doesn't want to show them off until a later race (this is not cheating imo, some others may disagree), what's more perfect than the KY Derby (big pools)

As people pointed out the horse should have been 200/1 or more , yet he was only 50/1 (this should have set off alarm bells as the tote-board don't lie)

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Kasept

There are worse riders, but overall, she's a bit of hazard out there. She rode the horse OK at Woodbine. Her ride in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile though was dreadful. The kid in New Mexico rode him lousy too and further darkened any form/potential anyone could possibly have uncovered as a result. He looked like a horse that hadn't progressed a step from 2 to 3.

Had any of us covering the race bothered to ask Borel or Woolley their strategy beforehand, it might have come out that they were changing their approach with him by planning to take back and come with one run. And even knowing that there was still little to go on to bet him as anything more than a super/high five filler.

They sought out Borel as his jock for a reason, as Woolley and Calvin told ATR this week. And I talked extensively with Jerry Hissam, Borel's agent, Monday, and he had some interesting background to add as well. As Baffert said, they had a plan and they got the racetrack and path they needed to execute it and the horse was ready and willing. Amazing really.

100% agreed. It was impossible to pick Mine That Bird in the derby. I couldnt have even picked that horse out of a hat. No one in their right mind could have wagered hard on this horse unless their favorite number is 8 of course!

The change in running style and jockey really made a huge difference. Not at all saying this to you Steve, cause you've never said anything of the sort, but everyone already seems to be writing him off in the future and saying this was a fluke... and I just believe Mine that Bird deserves a few more chances on the big stage with his new jock and running style before he gets written off... what do you think??

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

There are worse riders, but overall, she's a bit of hazard out there. She rode the horse OK at Woodbine. Her ride in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile though was dreadful. The kid in New Mexico rode him lousy too and further darkened any form/potential anyone could possibly have uncovered as a result. He looked like a horse that hadn't progressed a step from 2 to 3.

Had any of us covering the race bothered to ask Borel or Woolley their strategy beforehand, it might have come out that they were changing their approach with him by planning to take back and come with one run. And even knowing that there was still little to go on to bet him as anything more than a super/high five filler.

They sought out Borel as his jock for a reason, as Woolley and Calvin told ATR this week. And I talked extensively with Jerry Hissam, Borel's agent, Monday, and he had some interesting background to add as well. As Baffert said, they had a plan and they got the racetrack and path they needed to execute it and the horse was ready and willing. Amazing really.

Agree with most of this, except for the part about the ride in the BCJ... I bet him a little in that race hoping he'd move forward off the Grey and he really did nothing, he ran the same race (think he paired 8's off the top of my head?)- I can't fault the ride.

Originally Posted by sumitas

You cannot dismiss that tgraph tapped him as one of the few eligible for a new top . And MTB delivered that top . It seems he will probably be a couple of points off that top in the Preakness but that might be good enough to win . We need to look at the form cycle for horses ready for a new top for the Preakness.

This is true. He still needed to improve 8-10 lengths, however. Not impossible but it's a lot to ask in the Derby.
He probably regresses back to a 4-5 range assuming the track is dry, which wouldn't be good enough to win- but a 1-2 might be.

[Pedigree Ann]

Kasept, that's a great shot of Stymie. He was the ultimate Cinderella horse; claimed for $1500, he went on to head the US earnings list with $918,485. In those days, the Wood Memorial was $25K-added and so was the Pimlico Special and the JC Gold Cup. Post-WWII, when he was 5, purses went up, so that some of the big East Coast races went up to $50K added, even a couple to $75K or (gasp!) $100K. Still, the Met Mile was only $25K-added when he won it in at 6 and 7. By the way, Stymie was as good at 2 miles as he was at 1 mile. And he's in Sunday Silence's pedigree.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Kasept, that's a great shot of Stymie. He was the ultimate Cinderella horse; claimed for $1500, he went on to head the US earnings list with $918,485. In those days, the Wood Memorial was $25K-added and so was the Pimlico Special and the JC Gold Cup. Post-WWII, when he was 5, purses went up, so that some of the big East Coast races went up to $50K added, even a couple to $75K or (gasp!) $100K. Still, the Met Mile was only $25K-added when he won it in at 6 and 7. By the way, Stymie was as good at 2 miles as he was at 1 mile. And he's in Sunday Silence's pedigree.

For some reason, Stymie misses out on 'great horse' conversations. He was #41 on the B-H Top 100 which puts him ahead of many that seem to receive more mention.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

including his four wins?

Yes including his four wins because none of what he did prior to Saturday even remotely comes close to what I saw him do in the Derby. He got an amazingly clean trip on the best part of the racetrack but STILL there was nothing in those prior races to indicate he could do what he did even under the best circumstances.

[CSC]

This would have sounded crazy 5 days ago, but if Mine That Bird is around 10-1 in the Preakness, I think I'll play a POTN/MTB exacta box, and a sizable win/place bet on MTB. The more I look at the derby, the more I think it may not have been a fluke.

[slotdirt]

I think the horse is a cinch for third in the Preakness.

[Sightseek]

This year's Kentucky Derby was like going through the 7 stages of grief:

1. shock & denial - self explanitory
2. pain & guilt - subjecting yourself to some of the posts here, that is pain!
3. anger & bargaining - blame it on Beyer!
4. depression, relection, lonliness - we all now know more about some people than we should
5. the upward turn - no one has started a new Derby thread in hours!
6. reconstruction & working through - onto the Preakness!
7. acceptance & hope - now we have people saying it wasn't a fluke and Mine That Bird is going to be a good horse dammit!

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

This year's Kentucky Derby was like going through the 7 stages of grief:

1. shock & denial - self explanitory
2. pain & guilt - subjecting yourself to some of the posts here, that is pain!
3. anger & bargaining - blame it on Beyer!
4. depression, relection, lonliness - we all now know more about some people than we should
5. the upward turn - no one has started a new Derby thread in hours!
6. reconstruction & working through - onto the Preakness!
7. acceptance & hope - now we have people saying it wasn't a fluke and Mine That Bird is going to be a good horse dammit!

[CSC]

POTN and MTB ran the best races in the derby in my opinion, there will have to be a new shooter come in to upset these 2. PC and MM were okay I guess, they are what they are....

Originally Posted by Sightseek

This year's Kentucky Derby was like going through the 7 stages of grief:

1. shock & denial - self explanitory
2. pain & guilt - subjecting yourself to some of the posts here, that is pain!
3. anger & bargaining - blame it on Beyer!
4. depression, relection, lonliness - we all now know more about some people than we should
5. the upward turn - no one has started a new Derby thread in hours!
6. reconstruction & working through - onto the Preakness!
7. acceptance & hope - now we have people saying it wasn't a fluke and Mine That Bird is going to be a good horse dammit!

Well yeah he's a decent horse.

What I'm having a problem with is the rest of the runners in the derby. They were horrendous...track condition or not.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

This year's Kentucky Derby was like going through the 7 stages of grief:

1. shock & denial - self explanitory
2. pain & guilt - subjecting yourself to some of the posts here, that is pain!
3. anger & bargaining - blame it on Beyer!
4. depression, relection, lonliness - we all now know more about some people than we should
5. the upward turn - no one has started a new Derby thread in hours!
6. reconstruction & working through - onto the Preakness!
7. acceptance & hope - now we have people saying it wasn't a fluke and Mine That Bird is going to be a good horse dammit!

I have reached stage 6.

Originally Posted by TheSpyder

At 50/1 does anyone know just how much was $ was on the horse to win?

Just under a million.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by philcski

I have reached stage 6.



Just under a million.

Gee your slow...I reached all 7 stages sometime between Saturday night to Sunday morning.