MTB An Underlay

[Linny]

While the best horse might not always win the Derby, usually the winner is from a pool of "logical" horses. Other than Giacomo, I don't see any of the last 10 Derby winners as illogical. From the list posted I say Lil E Tee and maybe Sea Hero and Go For Gin were illogical though Go For Gin was lone speed.
I thought Giacomo who had never beaten winners was illogical though he had hit the board against major contenders. Usually illogical results stem from weak crops or races where several of the leading prep winners don't end up in the Derby. Saturday's race and NO GRADE ONE dirt winners. That seemed to be begging for an oddball result, esp when the track didn't dry.

If I were to get off my butt and research some of the history of the race I venture a guess that about 12-18% of the winners of the Derby were "illogical" horses, based on their odds and editorial comments from news clippings etc. The sample of 23 above yields 3 or 4 such results. (Four illogicals = about 17.3%.) Most of the other Derby winners probably "figured" to a great extent.