MTB An Underlay

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Not the point. It was a great performance. I'm simply saying he was not Arcangues like value and he could've been.

randall how many horses had run over a muddy track? (besides ff and desert party i don't remember any others)did anyone really know what any of these 3 yr olds were going to do in this slop, were any of the prep races in the mud?


he got a clean trip , compared to the others , the jock saved a ton of ground , and maybe he loved the off?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by gales0678

randall how many horses had run over a muddy track? (besides ff and desert party i don't remember any others)did anyone really know what any of these 3 yr olds were going to do in this slop, were any of the prep races in the mud?


he got a clean trip , compared to the others , the jock saved a ton of ground , and maybe he loved the off?

We are having two different conversations.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

We are having two different conversations.

I wrote this on another thread. He should have been over 100/1.
But when you have a Derby where a horse who ran a mere 3 times was 5/1, anything is possible. Giacomo was 50/1 and he had far more to go on than Mind a Bird.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

We are having two different conversations.

i hear waht you are saying , based on his PP's he should have paid $300+ dollars if you bet $2 to win - that would have been fairer value than the $105 , what he actually paid ,so a strict numbers/value palyer would never have played the horse

my guess is that it's the derby , people bet numbers , people might have made a bet on calvin just as their favorite jock , who knows, perhaps if IWR was in the race he would have went off higher

[randallscott35]

Which is why the Derby is unique. People play bombs for the hell of it. There is always value in the pools. But actually, in this case, the value was not on this horse at all.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Which is why the Derby is unique. People play bombs for the hell of it. There is always value in the pools. But actually, in this case, the value was not on this horse at all.

where was the value in your opinion Randall?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by gales0678

where was the value in your opinion Randall?

It's more of a question of where the value wasn't. A horse like General Quarters for instance who gets bet down b/c of the story crushes your value proposition....Horse racing is simply risk/reward prop when it comes to betting.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Which is why the Derby is unique. People play bombs for the hell of it. There is always value in the pools. But actually, in this case, the value was not on this horse at all.

Win betting in the Kentucky Derby is one giant underlay in my opinion.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Win betting in the Kentucky Derby is one giant underlay in my opinion.

That simply can't be true.

[gales0678]

in theory wasn't musket man an overlay at 22/1 (based on his pp's compared to what was left in the field - no iwr , no qr)

[Port Conway Lane]

I thought Musket Man,Summer Bird,Regal Ransom,West Side Bernie,Desert Party and Mr. Hot Stuff offered value compared to the rest of the field.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

That simply can't be true.

I think it simply can be but will admit I'm being general about the statement.

There are no longer big longshots. Giacomo is wreaking havoc. Mine That Bird at ~50-1 is the world's biggest underlay. So longshots are, right now, being overbet.

As for the others, when you factor in the randomness of the Derby, and the uncertainty, getting just 7-2 or 3-1 on Friesan Fire is insane. If you're going to bet FF, I would skip the $20 win bet and do ten $2 exactas instead. If Mine That Bird was 50-1 in the exotics, where in my opinion the true overlays exist, I'm going to have to take-up water polo instead.