Current Derby Odds

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by robfla

1 = 38
2 = 26
3 = 34
4 = 48
5 = 11
6 = 4
7 = 14
8 = 53
9 = 60
10 = 34
11 = 8
12 = 8
13 = 5
14 = 76
15 = 8
16 = 8
17 = 39
18 = 54
19 = 26
20 = 43

I am very surprised at some of the odds. I did figure Choc Candy would be the "wise guy " horse. Very surprised with GQ and HMB

You shouldn't be surprised. The odds this early have very little meaning. There's almost no chance that IWR will go at 5-1 and Dunkirk at 8-1.

The closing tote odds will be much closer to the current best futures than to the miniscule amount of early betting. Here were the best futures as of a few hours ago:

W.Side Bernie 45-1
Musket Man 25-1
Mr Hot Stuff 35-1
Advice 35-1
Hold Me Back 25-1
Friesan Fire 5-1
Papa Clem 18-1
Mine That Bird 99-1
Join in the Dance 99-1
Regal Ransom 17-1
Choc Candy 18-1
Gen Quarters 25-1
I Want Revenge 3-1
Atomic Rain 90-1
Dunkirk 9-2
POTN 5-1
SummerBird 45-1
NowhereHide 99-1
Desert Party 16-1
Fly Private 90-1

(I've adjusted them to a 16% takeout.)

--Dunbar

[booner]

Just posted on TVG......

Friesian Fire - 9/2
General Quarters - 5/1 (!?!)
I Want Revenge - 6/1
Dunkirk - 8/1
Chocolate Candy - 9/1
Pioneerof The Nile - 10/1

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by booner

Just posted on TVG......

Friesian Fire - 9/2
General Quarters - 5/1 (!?!)
I Want Revenge - 6/1
Dunkirk - 8/1
Chocolate Candy - 9/1
Pioneerof The Nile - 10/1

If I get 6-1 on IWR...the ATM at KY Downs will be empty after I get done.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

If I get 6-1 on IWR...the ATM at KY Downs will be empty after I get done.

I really doubt that you'll get that on him.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I really doubt that you'll get that on him.

I doubt it.....but....I didnt think I would have gotten it on Barbaro either.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by booner

Just posted on TVG......

Friesian Fire - 9/2
General Quarters - 5/1 (!?!)
I Want Revenge - 6/1
Dunkirk - 8/1
Chocolate Candy - 9/1
Pioneerof The Nile - 10/1

Maybe the public still doesnt realize the Bluegrass is a joke ever since they put in polycrap

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

You shouldn't be surprised. The odds this early have very little meaning. There's almost no chance that IWR will go at 5-1 and Dunkirk at 8-1.

The closing tote odds will be much closer to the current best futures than to the miniscule amount of early betting. Here were the best futures as of a few hours ago:

W.Side Bernie 45-1
Musket Man 25-1
Mr Hot Stuff 35-1
Advice 35-1
Hold Me Back 25-1
Friesan Fire 5-1
Papa Clem 18-1
Mine That Bird 99-1
Join in the Dance 99-1
Regal Ransom 17-1
Choc Candy 18-1
Gen Quarters 25-1
I Want Revenge 3-1
Atomic Rain 90-1
Dunkirk 9-2
POTN 5-1
SummerBird 45-1
NowhereHide 99-1
Desert Party 16-1
Fly Private 90-1

(I've adjusted them to a 16% takeout.)

--Dunbar

as it has been the last several years, yesterday's odds are not too far off of today's current odds

1 =30
2 =19
3 = 25
4 =45
5 =12
6 =7/2
7 =13
8 = 45
9 = 45
10 = 22
11= 9
12 = 9
13 = XXX
14 =50
15 = 6
16 = 6
17 = 40
18 = 40
19 =15
20 =40

Choc Candy, and GQ holding sway at 9:1 each, with Dunkirk and POTN lowered just a bit...Hold Me Back same as yesterday

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by robfla

as it has been the last several years, yesterday's odds are not too far off of today's current odds

1 =30
2 =19
3 = 25
4 =45
5 =12
6 =7/2
7 =13
8 = 45
9 = 45
10 = 22
11= 9
12 = 9
13 = XXX
14 =50
15 = 6
16 = 6
17 = 40
18 = 40
19 =15
20 =40

Choc Candy, and GQ holding sway at 9:1 each, with Dunkirk and POTN lowered just a bit...Hold Me Back same as yesterday

You were right. The early odds were pretty good estimators of the final odds. I especially didn't expect GQ to stay low. And while Dunkirk's odds dropped to 5.2-1 from the early 8-1, some of that was due to IWR's scratch.

--Dunbar