5/2 (CD): Kentucky Derby (G1)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I agree. If I make a win bet, it'll be on Regal Ransom.

Regal Ransom isn't all that much and has to be considered very suspect at 10fs.

He barely beat Desert Party with a dream trip over a gold rail speed track last time.

[miraja2]

I actually don't see this race as that wide open after the defection of Quality Road. Anything better than 7/2 on I Want Revenge would be a gift in my opinion.
I think my only play here will be I Want Revenge to win, and a Pioneerof the Nile/I Want Revenge exacta box.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I actually don't see this race as that wide open after the defection of Quality Road. Anything better than 7/2 on I Want Revenge would be a gift in my opinion.
I think my only play here will be I Want Revenge to win, and a Pioneerof the Nile/I Want Revenge exacta box.

Can I book that bet?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by kgar311

Can I book that bet?

Unlike many people, I don't have a real strong opinion one way or the other on Pioneerof the Nile. I wouldn't be shocked if he was in the exacta, and I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't finish in the top half. How can anyone really know one way or the other how he'll handle a new surface under race conditions?
His final odds are difficult to predict, and he might end up being overbet, but for me his pedigree and works over the track lead me to believe that he might actually like the dirt. If he does, he is one of the very few horses in the race that I think might have a shot at beating I Want Revenge....who I see as a very solid favorite.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Unlike many people, I don't have a real strong opinion one way or the other on Pioneerof the Nile. I wouldn't be shocked if he was in the exacta, and I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't finish in the top half. How can anyone really know one way or the other how he'll handle a new surface under race conditions?
His final odds are difficult to predict, and he might end up being overbet, but for me his pedigree and works over the track lead me to believe that he might actually like the dirt. If he does, he is one of the very few horses in the race that I think might have a shot at beating I Want Revenge....who I see as a very solid favorite.

I say he might be the favorite and I also say he finishes 16th

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by kgar311

I also say he finishes 16th

Are you talking about I Want Revenge or Pioneerof the Nile?
If Pioneerof the Nile....you could be right.
If I Want Revenge....I think you're insane.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Are you talking about I Want Revenge or Pioneerof the Nile?
If Pioneerof the Nile....you could be right.
If I Want Revenge....I think you're insane.

I was talking about POTN

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Unlike many people, I don't have a real strong opinion one way or the other on Pioneerof the Nile. I wouldn't be shocked if he was in the exacta, and I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't finish in the top half. How can anyone really know one way or the other how he'll handle a new surface under race conditions?
His final odds are difficult to predict, and he might end up being overbet, but for me his pedigree and works over the track lead me to believe that he might actually like the dirt. If he does, he is one of the very few horses in the race that I think might have a shot at beating I Want Revenge....who I see as a very solid favorite.

I think if you are sold on I want revenge... but not sold on POTN, you should play more than just an exact box with POTN... You should key I want revenge over a few horses that you think could run in the money.. and add some horses underneath who have some value.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I think if you are sold on I want revenge... but not sold on POTN, you should play more than just an exact box with POTN... You should key I want revenge over a few horses that you think could run in the money.. and add some horses underneath who have some value.

I am.
As I said, I am also betting I Want Revenge to win. That is where probably 75-80% of the money I'll bet on the race will go. I feel more confident that he will win this race than any horse I can remember in the Derby since Point Given (of course, we remember how that turned out).
I will probably just use the other 20-25% on the exacta box because POTN is the horse that seems the most likely of the rest to perhaps come up with a big effort and beat I Want Revenge. But for this race, a straight win bet seems the best bet for me, because I can't really distinguish between Dunkirk, Papa Clem, Desert Party, Friesan Fire, Mr. Hot Stuff, West Side Bernie, etc. when it comes to filling out the underneath portions of a tri or super.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I am.
As I said, I am also betting I Want Revenge to win. That is where probably 75-80% of the money I'll bet on the race will go. I feel more confident that he will win this race than any horse I can remember in the Derby since Point Given (of course, we remember how that turned out).
I will probably just use the other 20-25% on the exacta box because POTN is the horse that seems the most likely of the rest to perhaps come up with a big effort and beat I Want Revenge. But for this race, a straight win bet seems the best bet for me, because I can't really distinguish between Dunkirk, Papa Clem, Desert Party, Friesan Fire, Mr. Hot Stuff, West Side Bernie, etc. when it comes to filling out the underneath portions of a tri or super.

Use 'em all swing for the fences!!

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Unlike many people, I don't have a real strong opinion one way or the other on Pioneerof the Nile. I wouldn't be shocked if he was in the exacta, and I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't finish in the top half. How can anyone really know one way or the other how he'll handle a new surface under race conditions?
His final odds are difficult to predict, and he might end up being overbet, but for me his pedigree and works over the track lead me to believe that he might actually like the dirt. If he does, he is one of the very few horses in the race that I think might have a shot at beating I Want Revenge....who I see as a very solid favorite.

there is 1 barn in ky that has seen all the works this week and the most impressive horse by far in their opinion is POTN

[PatCummings]

There aren't many horses trained by Bob Baffert that don't look very good in the morning.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Regal Ransom isn't all that much and has to be considered very suspect at 10fs.

He barely beat Desert Party with a dream trip over a gold rail speed track last time.

To be fair only 2 of the 5 winners on dirt could be truly termed golden rail trips, naturally pace horses. The other 3 dirt races the winners didn't ride the rail for the entire trip that evening.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The Sprint was a straight away - with Indian Blessing breaking from the far outside.

The three real Dubai Cup races on dirt were all won by the inside speed. Two Step Salsa, Regal Ransom, and Well Armed

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The Sprint was a straight away - with Indian Blessing breaking from the far outside.

The three real Dubai Cup races on dirt were all won by the inside speed. Two Step Salsa, Regal Ransom, and Well Armed

Two Step Salsa didn't ride the rail the entire trip that I am sure of.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by CSC

Two Step Salsa didn't ride the rail the entire trip that I am sure of.

Two Step Salsa was on the lead, but just off the rail in the two path.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

Two Step Salsa was on the lead, but just off the rail in the two path.

Essentially that is what I saw, Dettori intentionally kept him off the rail on the backside, there was a horse that was inside of him on the backside, when he took the lead he naturally drifted closer to the rail but notice Dettori didn't nail him to the rail. The 1st race of the day a horse won coming down towards the inside middle of the track and in the sprint the horse that won was also in the same area though as pointed out earlier it was on a straight course. The track was obviously favouring speed that night but in my opinion the term 'golden rail' is misleading. That term tells me there was an unfair advantage to only one part of the track which I didn't see being the case.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Regal Ransom isn't all that much and has to be considered very suspect at 10fs.

He barely beat Desert Party with a dream trip over a gold rail speed track last time.

I think he is a decent horse, but if the UAE Derby was 10 furlongs, Desert Party was going to win by more than a length.