5/2 (CD): Kentucky Derby (G1)

[Mike]

Originally Posted by LARHAGE

That absolute pig of Zito's is 50-1 and Chocolate Candy is 42-1 !!!!!! That is insane.

That's a must-be mistake.
He's been 15-1 on most people's probable list, and I think with Quality Road out, I'd be lucky to get that(my wagers will revolve around Choco)

[skippy3481]

he is 20-1

[dagolfer33]

Its a good thing Battaglia is a better M/L oddsmaker than track announcer. Or maybe what I meant to say was the other way around? Hmmmm......no he way sucks at both.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by dagolfer33

Its a good thing Battaglia is a better M/L oddsmaker than track announcer. Or maybe what I meant to say was the other way around? Hmmmm......no he way sucks at both.

Battaglia Belmont 31 lengths

"And Secretariat in the lead and uh ...
and uh...
gaining ground in sec-ond is
uh...
GAIN -ING GROUND! is uh..
My Gal-lant Gain-ing Ground
Twice-a-Prince is Gain-ing Ground
uh Sec-re-tariat has won"

[CSC]

Dunkirk's not impossible, however 4-1 is very short. I would have no interest other than a saver exotic bet with him. Looks like his odds are drastically shorter with QR's defection.

[Linny]

I am curious about the difference betwen the 2 Godolphin colts. RR at 30/1 and the hrse he just beat at 15/1. All accounts are the RR looks amazing since his return to KY.
Not sure I like either but the price on RR is interesting.

[jwkniska]

Desert Party's the 'wise guy' horse, so he probably put it alot lower due to that.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Linny

I am curious about the difference betwen the 2 Godolphin colts. RR at 30/1 and the hrse he just beat at 15/1. All accounts are the RR looks amazing since his return to KY.
Not sure I like either but the price on RR is interesting.

I agree. If I make a win bet, it'll be on Regal Ransom.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Linny

I am curious about the difference betwen the 2 Godolphin colts. RR at 30/1 and the hrse he just beat at 15/1. All accounts are the RR looks amazing since his return to KY.
Not sure I like either but the price on RR is interesting.

I prefer Regal Ransom from a pace perspective, there really wasn't much difference between the 2 from their Dubai preps if you exclude the middle race where DP won by 4 1/2, but the best way to decide is view the replays for yourself. I'm going to work both of them into my picks, they are my main plays this year because they offer excellent value, I'll throw in a saver somewhere also.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by CSC

Dunkirk's not impossible, however 4-1 is very short. I would have no interest other than a saver exotic bet with him. Looks like his odds are drastically shorter with QR's defection.

agreed... if the lines stay line the Morning lines are... I'll only play Dunkirk on top of an exacta with some longshots I like...

Dunkirk over West side bernie, Hold me back, Chocolate Candy, General Quarters and Desert Part.

If the odds stay similar I'll also probably bet Desert Party to win (though if he is the wise guy horse his odds will probably fall)

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

agreed... if the lines stay line the Morning lines are... I'll only play Dunkirk on top of an exacta with some longshots I like...

Dunkirk over West side bernie, Hold me back, Chocolate Candy, General Quarters and Desert Part.

If the odds stay similar I'll also probably bet Desert Party to win (though if he is the wise guy horse his odds will probably fall)

I think if you are playing any of the alternatives(I consider the Godolphin pair alternatives) you have to play either 1 of either IWR, Dunkirk, or POTN as a saver. The odds on these as win bets are not exciting possibilities so you have to hope you can catch the exacta/tri with them. There will be some good horses at outrageous prices so putting a few on huge overlays can't be a bad idea. No one's talked about the Mott horse for instance, so there are plays for sure.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Battaglia Belmont 31 lengths

"And Secretariat in the lead and uh ...
and uh...
gaining ground in sec-ond is
uh...
GAIN -ING GROUND! is uh..
My Gal-lant Gain-ing Ground
Twice-a-Prince is Gain-ing Ground
uh Sec-re-tariat has won"

Now that is funny.