5/2 (CD): Kentucky Derby (G1)

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Alan07

Want Revenge, trained by Jeff Mullins, will be the 3-1 morning line favorite for Saturday's Kentucky Derby.
Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia set the odds this morning before the draw at noon and is not expected to make substantial changes after the post positions are set.

Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
Advice N/A Todd Pletcher 30-1
Atomic Rain Joe Bravo Kelly Breen 50-1
Chocolate Candy Mike Smith Jerry Hollendorfer 42-1
Desert Party Ramon Dominguez Saeed bin Suroor 15-1
Dunkirk Edgar Prado Todd Pletcher 4-1
Flying Private Robby Albarado D. Wayne Lukas 50-1
Friesan Fire Gabriel Saez J. Larry Jones 5-1
General Quarters Julien Leparoux Tom McCarthy 20-1
Hold Me Back Kent Desormeaux Bill Mott 15-1
I Want Revenge Joe Talamo Jeff Mullins 3-1
Join in the Dance N/A Todd Pletcher 50-1
Mine That Bird Calvin Borel Bennie Woolley Jr. 50-1
Mr. Hot Stuff N/A Eoin Harty 30-1
Musket Man Eibar Coa Derek Ryan 20-1
Nowhere to Hide N/A Nick Zito 50-1
Papa Clem Rafael Bejarano Gary Stute 20-1
Pioneerof the Nile Garrett Gomez Bob Baffert 9-2
Regal Ransom Alan Garcia Saeed bin Suroor 30-1
Summer Bird Chris Rosier Tim Ice 50-1
West Side Bernie Stewart Elliott Kelly Breen 30-1

I have never seen a 42/1 morning line....Battaglia is working overtime.

[LARHAGE]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I have never seen a 42/1 morning line....Battaglia is working overtime.

That absolute pig of Zito's is 50-1 and Chocolate Candy is 42-1 !!!!!! That is insane.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by LARHAGE

That absolute pig of Zito's is 50-1 and Chocolate Candy is 42-1 !!!!!! That is insane.

I think it was meant to be 12/1.

[Mike]

Originally Posted by LARHAGE

That absolute pig of Zito's is 50-1 and Chocolate Candy is 42-1 !!!!!! That is insane.

That's a must-be mistake.
He's been 15-1 on most people's probable list, and I think with Quality Road out, I'd be lucky to get that(my wagers will revolve around Choco)

[skippy3481]

he is 20-1

[dagolfer33]

Its a good thing Battaglia is a better M/L oddsmaker than track announcer. Or maybe what I meant to say was the other way around? Hmmmm......no he way sucks at both.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by dagolfer33

Its a good thing Battaglia is a better M/L oddsmaker than track announcer. Or maybe what I meant to say was the other way around? Hmmmm......no he way sucks at both.

Battaglia Belmont 31 lengths

"And Secretariat in the lead and uh ...
and uh...
gaining ground in sec-ond is
uh...
GAIN -ING GROUND! is uh..
My Gal-lant Gain-ing Ground
Twice-a-Prince is Gain-ing Ground
uh Sec-re-tariat has won"

[CSC]

Dunkirk's not impossible, however 4-1 is very short. I would have no interest other than a saver exotic bet with him. Looks like his odds are drastically shorter with QR's defection.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Battaglia Belmont 31 lengths

"And Secretariat in the lead and uh ...
and uh...
gaining ground in sec-ond is
uh...
GAIN -ING GROUND! is uh..
My Gal-lant Gain-ing Ground
Twice-a-Prince is Gain-ing Ground
uh Sec-re-tariat has won"

Now that is funny.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by LARHAGE

That absolute pig of Zito's is 50-1 and Chocolate Candy is 42-1 !!!!!! That is insane.

Zitos pigs have waddled their way into the Super and crushed my dreams all too often.

[LARHAGE]

Originally Posted by jms62

Zitos pigs have waddled their way into the Super and crushed my dreams all too often.

I'm sure if the other 16 horses have to avoid another road bump like him and fall, he'll hit the super, he would have his hands full with the lead pony.

[nomad]

Only a bad trip/traffic problems would prevent I Want Revenge from winning. Hold me Back for the place spot
I would certainly worry about WestSide Bernie, peaking at the right time.

[nomad]

And my boyfriend says ADVICE

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by nomad

And my boyfriend says ADVICE

Is your boyfriend, does he happen to be a Point Given or a Giant's Causeway fan?

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by nomad

Only a bad trip/traffic problems would prevent I Want Revenge from winning. Hold me Back for the place spot
I would certainly worry about WestSide Bernie, peaking at the right time.

I think you can say that about a number of horses in here. Trouble is you have an inexperienced joc (if you question this look at how he finished up the Gotham) prone to getting overly excited and a horse that will be a handful if the impressions of folks on the track are any indication. He has run huge on the dirt. But he has never faced 100k+ fans, 20 horses and all the hoopla.

What all that means is that a bad trip/traffic is far more possible. I am not sure yet who I think can win, but it will be 3 or 4 that will be in play and IWR will have to beat me. Expecially since he is likely to get bet down by post time.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Handicappy

I think you can say that about a number of horses in here. Trouble is you have an inexperienced joc (if you question this look at how he finished up the Gotham) prone to getting overly excited and a horse that will be a handful if the impressions of folks on the track are any indication. He has run huge on the dirt. But he has never faced 100k+ fans, 20 horses and all the hoopla.

What all that means is that a bad trip/traffic is far more possible. I am not sure yet who I think can win, but it will be 3 or 4 that will be in play and IWR will have to beat me. Expecially since he is likely to get bet down by post time.

I really need somebody to explain to me how or why he isn't the overwhelming favorite to win this race. In my opinion, his last two starts are both better than any race any other horse in the field has ever run. His workout two days ago over the track was ultra-sharp, he has a good post position, he has tactical speed, has demonstrated that he can handle dirt, etc. etc. etc.

To me he is clearly the best horse coming into the race. Obviously any number of things could happen in a 20-horse race, and I understand a desire to try to beat a favorite. But if that favorite is much the best and is something like 7/2.....I'm not sure it makes much sense to pass that up.

[nomad]

Originally Posted by Handicappy

I think you can say that about a number of horses in here. Trouble is you have an inexperienced joc (if you question this look at how he finished up the Gotham) prone to getting overly excited and a horse that will be a handful if the impressions of folks on the track are any indication. He has run huge on the dirt. But he has never faced 100k+ fans, 20 horses and all the hoopla.

What all that means is that a bad trip/traffic is far more possible. I am not sure yet who I think can win, but it will be 3 or 4 that will be in play and IWR will have to beat me. Expecially since he is likely to get bet down by post time.

I really think IWR is the horse to beat. He has everything going for him. Somehow I am not a big Pioneer fan, a horse that beat IWR twice in Cal. I think he is a bit of head case, the way he was pulling Gomez in the SA Derby. I would not discount Musket Man, who is 5 for 6. Hold Me Back doesn't seem to have the speed figures but Giant's Causeways can run on anything & I liked the way he was closing in the BG, should cherish the extra distance.

Soooo

As of this moment, I like IWR, Hold Me back, Musket Man & POTN.
The other dangerous horse is Dunkirk.
Jeez ....5 horses! I'm trying to narrow it down. But if one of those 5 doesn't win, I'll be surprised.

[nomad]

Originally Posted by Handicappy

I think you can say that about a number of horses in here. Trouble is you have an inexperienced joc (if you question this look at how he finished up the Gotham) prone to getting overly excited and a horse that will be a handful if the impressions of folks on the track are any indication. He has run huge on the dirt. But he has never faced 100k+ fans, 20 horses and all the hoopla.

What all that means is that a bad trip/traffic is far more possible. I am not sure yet who I think can win, but it will be 3 or 4 that will be in play and IWR will have to beat me. Expecially since he is likely to get bet down by post time.

As far as Talamo. I follow Cal racing every day. He is one of the best. I wouldn't worry about his inexperience.

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I have never seen a 42/1 morning line....Battaglia is working overtime.

LOL, I guess he likes him a little bit.