5/1 (CD): Kentucky Oaks (G1)

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by philcski

Cross off the slop races... Flying Spur's non-off track performances are mediocre at best.

One was her debut and the other she rushed the gate... She is obviously better this year than last too. I think it's risky to toss her under the assumption she doesn't handle a dry track.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

One was her debut and the other she rushed the gate... She is obviously better this year than last too. I think it's risky to toss her under the assumption she doesn't handle a dry track.

Fair points- I honestly think she hits the board, because the rest of the field is no better- but I have no interest in playing exactas and trifectas in this race. It's either try to get a live pick 4 to RA, with a small backup ticket to beat her, or not play the race at all.

It might be wet on Friday anyways, as you stated. Calling for an afternoon thunderstorm.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by philcski

Fair points- I honestly think she hits the board, because the rest of the field is no better- but I have no interest in playing exactas and trifectas in this race. It's either try to get a live pick 4 to RA, with a small backup ticket to beat her, or not play the race at all.

It might be wet on Friday anyways, as you stated. Calling for an afternoon thunderstorm.

I'm looking at it from the Oaks/Derby double to try and cover some longshots in the Derby who will never find their way on top of my tickets on Saturday. But I might toss a few towards beating RA into some of the logicals on Saturday... not sure.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm looking at it from the Oaks/Derby double to try and cover some longshots in the Derby who will never find their way on top of my tickets on Saturday. But I might toss a few towards beating RA into some of the logicals on Saturday... not sure.

If RA is all that she is being touted as, is the derby/oaks double even worth betting. The only way to make real money on the double is if she loses in my opinion since she is most likely a single on most tix.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by CSC

If RA is all that she is being touted as, is the derby/oaks double even worth betting. The only way to make real money on the double is if she loses in my opinion since she is most likely a single on most tix.

The double was overlaid last year to the parlay despite the two short prices. I think the bet can make lots of sense in terms of covering longshots on Saturday.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The double was overlaid last year to the parlay despite the two short prices. I think the bet can make lots of sense in terms of covering longshots on Saturday.

Let's see what the willpays are but it's not a terrible approach.

[Bobby Fischer]

what the hell is this with 3 lukas horses

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by CSC

If RA is all that she is being touted as, is the derby/oaks double even worth betting. The only way to make real money on the double is if she loses in my opinion since she is most likely a single on most tix.

I know about all the hype with respect to Rachel Alexandra but the last work was way too fast for the trainers liking. I think that was her race. I know about Hard Spun and what he did a couple of years ago coming off a blazing work but I don't think the trainer liked Calvin running her that fast. I think she is vulnerable and am putting Bafferts horse with Flying spur and justwhistledixie for the double. I think the last one is coming into this with just the right rest and should run her best which should do it if RA falters. And I think she will.
As for the derby half of the double, I am still working on it. I do like Pioneer alot with Friesan Fire, Hold Me Back, Mr. Hot Stuff and Desert Party. IWR from everything I have heard is gonna be a handful and I don't like Talamo's inexperience which he put on display in the Gotham. I don't get the hype on Dunkirk. three races, hasn't won a stake, never raced at 2. Too lean for me to put any money on. Chocolate Candy could be at huge odds and his stretch run against a slow pace in the Santa Anita Derby was very impressive. Should be a great show for fans. I'll be at a Derby Party at Belmont.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Handicappy

I know about all the hype with respect to Rachel Alexandra but the last work was way too fast for the trainers liking. I think that was her race. I know about Hard Spun and what he did a couple of years ago coming off a blazing work but I don't think the trainer liked Calvin running her that fast. I think she is vulnerable and am putting Bafferts horse with Flying spur and justwhistledixie for the double. I think the last one is coming into this with just the right rest and should run her best which should do it if RA falters. And I think she will.
As for the derby half of the double, I am still working on it. I do like Pioneer alot with Friesan Fire, Hold Me Back, Mr. Hot Stuff and Desert Party. IWR from everything I have heard is gonna be a handful and I don't like Talamo's inexperience which he put on display in the Gotham. I don't get the hype on Dunkirk. three races, hasn't won a stake, never raced at 2. Too lean for me to put any money on. Chocolate Candy could be at huge odds and his stretch run against a slow pace in the Santa Anita Derby was very impressive. Should be a great show for fans. I'll be at a Derby Party at Belmont.

Hard Spun ran a fantastic race in the derby, I understand where you are coming from but it's hard to not listen to some very knowledgable people that have seen her work so it's tough to be dead set against her at this point. I agree with you about Talamo and his lack of experience, to me he has been a mediocre rider since losing his bug status, if it means anything if Ronnie Franklin can win a derby I'm sure Joe can if he has the best horse.

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by Handicappy

I know about all the hype with respect to Rachel Alexandra but the last work was way too fast for the trainers liking. I think that was her race. I know about Hard Spun and what he did a couple of years ago coming off a blazing work but I don't think the trainer liked Calvin running her that fast. I think she is vulnerable and am putting Bafferts horse with Flying spur and justwhistledixie for the double. I think the last one is coming into this with just the right rest and should run her best which should do it if RA falters. And I think she will.
As for the derby half of the double, I am still working on it. I do like Pioneer alot with Friesan Fire, Hold Me Back, Mr. Hot Stuff and Desert Party. IWR from everything I have heard is gonna be a handful and I don't like Talamo's inexperience which he put on display in the Gotham. I don't get the hype on Dunkirk. three races, hasn't won a stake, never raced at 2. Too lean for me to put any money on. Chocolate Candy could be at huge odds and his stretch run against a slow pace in the Santa Anita Derby was very impressive. Should be a great show for fans. I'll be at a Derby Party at Belmont.

How stupid coule I have been with respect to RA. Amazing