5/1 (CD): Kentucky Oaks (G1)

[miraja2]

I agree with the consensus that Rachel Alexandra is clearly the most likely winner of the Oaks, but could the hopeless Tweeter make her work more through the first 4f-6f than she has during her recent 4-race streak? RA hasn't had to run a sub :47 half in her last four races, and given that Tweeter won her last on the front end, drew the rail, and posted a very sharp work in her last, I wonder if Lukas is planning on having her battle RA early. Does the fact that the last time RA was in a race that went faster than :47 she lost mean something, or not?

Of course, RA is probably good enough that it won't matter even if that scenario does play out, but if all the money lands on RA, might Justwhistledixie be a smart play if she is something like 4/1 or 5/1?