5/1 (CD): Kentucky Oaks (G1)

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Flying Spur's good races have all come on an off track. It's going to rain on Friday right? So she'll be 2nd or 3rd probably. Maybe to get value, you could hope that Justwhistledixie doesn't handle an off track?

Flying Spur blew the start at the Silverbulletday and was a bit of a mess in the paddock so I consider that a pretty good effort considering.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Flying Spur blew the start at the Silverbulletday and was a bit of a mess in the paddock so I consider that a pretty good effort considering.

I think she's the horse to beat RA if something crazy happens. But if you watch the Oaks at FG... she was running, RA was galloping... if RA was running, she wins by five and the Beyer proximity between the two is non-existent.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I think she's the horse to beat RA if something crazy happens. But if you watch the Oaks at FG... she was running, RA was galloping... if RA was running, she wins by five and the Beyer proximity between the two is non-existent.

Cross off the slop races... Flying Spur's non-off track performances are mediocre at best.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by philcski

Cross off the slop races... Flying Spur's non-off track performances are mediocre at best.

From what I've read though its supposed to be wet on Friday?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by philcski

Cross off the slop races... Flying Spur's non-off track performances are mediocre at best.

One was her debut and the other she rushed the gate... She is obviously better this year than last too. I think it's risky to toss her under the assumption she doesn't handle a dry track.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

One was her debut and the other she rushed the gate... She is obviously better this year than last too. I think it's risky to toss her under the assumption she doesn't handle a dry track.

Fair points- I honestly think she hits the board, because the rest of the field is no better- but I have no interest in playing exactas and trifectas in this race. It's either try to get a live pick 4 to RA, with a small backup ticket to beat her, or not play the race at all.

It might be wet on Friday anyways, as you stated. Calling for an afternoon thunderstorm.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by philcski

Fair points- I honestly think she hits the board, because the rest of the field is no better- but I have no interest in playing exactas and trifectas in this race. It's either try to get a live pick 4 to RA, with a small backup ticket to beat her, or not play the race at all.

It might be wet on Friday anyways, as you stated. Calling for an afternoon thunderstorm.

I'm looking at it from the Oaks/Derby double to try and cover some longshots in the Derby who will never find their way on top of my tickets on Saturday. But I might toss a few towards beating RA into some of the logicals on Saturday... not sure.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm looking at it from the Oaks/Derby double to try and cover some longshots in the Derby who will never find their way on top of my tickets on Saturday. But I might toss a few towards beating RA into some of the logicals on Saturday... not sure.

If RA is all that she is being touted as, is the derby/oaks double even worth betting. The only way to make real money on the double is if she loses in my opinion since she is most likely a single on most tix.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I think Be Fair is interesting underneath.

I loved her in the Ashland off the less than stellar trip in the Fantasy and I thought she ran like crap.

However, as the meet developed at Keeneland it seemed to me that sitting that 'watchdog' trip going two turns is not good. If you give her a pass on the Poly race she fits underneath and her price should be rewarding.

NT

[miraja2]

I agree with the consensus that Rachel Alexandra is clearly the most likely winner of the Oaks, but could the hopeless Tweeter make her work more through the first 4f-6f than she has during her recent 4-race streak? RA hasn't had to run a sub :47 half in her last four races, and given that Tweeter won her last on the front end, drew the rail, and posted a very sharp work in her last, I wonder if Lukas is planning on having her battle RA early. Does the fact that the last time RA was in a race that went faster than :47 she lost mean something, or not?

Of course, RA is probably good enough that it won't matter even if that scenario does play out, but if all the money lands on RA, might Justwhistledixie be a smart play if she is something like 4/1 or 5/1?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Of course, RA is probably good enough that it won't matter even if that scenario does play out, but if all the money lands on RA, might Justwhistledixie be a smart play if she is something like 4/1 or 5/1?

I think you're right about RA having to work harder than ever before on Friday and perhaps it ruffles her feathers. But as likely I think this it to happen, I think it's more likely that Justwhistledixie is exposed. When you poke around her running lines at Gulfstream she was racing against some really suspect competition.

At least Flying Spur ran second to RA, and at least Be Fair can figure for a share if you toss her poly race.

I feel you can make money by beating both RA and JWD, or using RA and tossing JWD.