Quality Road wont run..

[robfla]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

And...

could there be a more ironic name than "join in the dance", who now moves into the 20th spot?

if they run Join in the Dance, this Pletcher horse will actually help Dunkirk's chances by adding to the pace.

This Derby doesn't seem to have the early pace as other recent Derby's have. ( no Old Fashioned, no Pamplemousse, no Quality Road )

[Thunder Gulch]

At least I can proceed with handicapping the race. I would have picked QR before the injury, and even at less than 100% he was a pace factor. The other guys near the front look that much better now.

[CSC]

This will hurt the pool, the trickle down effect will be huge.

[Travis Stone]

The first quarter crack was a non-factor in terms of making the race, this second one was the blow.

I prefer things like this to surface now than him to win the race and develop one between the Derby/Preakness or Preakness/Belmont.

[CSC]

I assume the horse most impacted from a betting perspective will be POTN and maybe F Fire, the 11-1 for POTN in the third leg of futures is looking like a steal right now.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by CSC

This will hurt the pool, the trickle down effect will be huge.

How so?!

[CSC]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

How so?!

Take out one of the top 2 favorites and it won't?

[SCUDSBROTHER]

http://www.audiosparx.com/sa/play/po...und_iid.140576

Gotham in mourning.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by CSC

Take out one of the top 2 favorites and it won't?

You said, "This will hurt the pool, the trickle down effect will be huge."

I'm not sure how a relatively high priced major contender scratching could possibly "hurt" the pool unless for some reason you think a very significant portion of people are going to pass on the race just because Quality Road is out? Is that what you're saying?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

You said, "This will hurt the pool, the trickle down effect will be huge."

I'm not sure how a relatively high priced major contender scratching could possibly "hurt" the pool unless for some reason you think a very significant portion of people are going to pass on the race just because Quality Road is out? Is that what you're saying?

I understand what you are saying now, what I mean't was it would significantly lower the odds on other horses in the race. Most notably the horses that were 3rd and 4th in betting and on down. Regardless of his chances he was an attractive bet to many, he would have taken alot of money in this race, now that money is going to be dispersed elsewhere.

[tjfla]

Only means the prices on the Sheik's horses will be going down!!!

Also this adds speed out front. Question is does it help the closers or the late pack stalkers?

I have Mr. Hot Stuff at 150-1 in the future book. Lucky he got in on earnings, and was glad to get Nakatani off, and now he might get JV with QR withdrawal. Now just need a IWR type improvement moving to dirt, and a hot pace which it doesn't look like he'll get. Still can easily envision him in the 3rd or 4th slot.

Right now my top 3 are FF, POTN, and IWR. Someone commented above how much FF works resemble Hard Spun and I thought I read that Jones didn't want to go that fast with FF in his work today. I plan on keying around FF in the exotics.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by SundaySilence

I have Mr. Hot Stuff at 150-1 in the future book. Lucky he got in on earnings, and was glad to get Nakatani off, and now he might get JV with QR withdrawal. Now just need a IWR type improvement moving to dirt, and a hot pace which it doesn't look like he'll get. Still can easily envision him in the 3rd or 4th slot.

Right now my top 3 are FF, POTN, and IWR. Someone commented above how much FF works resemble Hard Spun and I thought I read that Jones didn't want to go that fast with FF in his work today. I plan on keying around FF in the exotics.

Join the Dance should add too the pace with his quick early speed.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

At least I can proceed with handicapping the race. I would have picked QR before the injury, and even at less than 100% he was a pace factor. The other guys near the front look that much better now.

Yeah me too.

It's a shame because Jimmy Jerkens was going to win a Derby for his dad with this horse.

[Bobby Fischer]

this hurts my win price on others , but it simplifies the exotics...
Was leaning towards others, but didn't have the guts to totally exclude him, especially if weather played a role.

[Travis Stone]

Is Join in the Dance is now going? If so, the pace scenario is totally different than it was 5 hours ago.

[booner]

Hate to see Quality Road out of the Derby. I was really anticipating seeing him go against IWR.

Hope he heals in time for the Preakness and/or Belmont.......

[tector]

The quality pace of this race has fallen apart. At the risk of advocating something I am usually against, if I had Rachel Alexandra I'd think long and hard about this race now. But I'd have run her in the Ark. Derby first to size her up against the boys in a softer spot.

And hey you Dubai sycophants, one major contender is now out of your way--hooray.

[slotdirt]

Definitely have to see how the track is playing, but with Regal Ransom and this Join in the Dance fellow on the front end, I think the pace should at least be honest for the 6f or so Join in the Dance will go before he stops.