Current Derby Field

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

Seriously? Southern Hemisphere 3YO have romped in Dubai the last few years, including Asiatic Boy, Honour Devil, Royal Vintage, etc. They took a handful of chances throughout the campaign...but Desert Party and Regal Ransom handled them well throughout three races.

Granted, they were lightly raced (but everyone is) - but the age and maturity factor plays a role. I just don't think there is anything absurd about that particular fact.

It's absurd because the SH 3yos they beat aren't any good. . .

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It's absurd because the SH 3yos they beat aren't any good. . .

And the superstars I Want Revenge has beaten in two wins in NY were good?

It's really risky to base Derby selections on quality of competition unless you really think you have a handle on everyone in the crop.

NT

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

It's really risky to base Derby selections on quality of competition unless you really think you have a handle on everyone in the crop.

Where does it look like I'm doing that?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Where does it look like I'm doing that?

You're making statements on quality of horses beat, which is only one step above taking the horse who ran the fastest 9 furlongs of all of the preps.

There are plenty of reasons to knock Desert Party, but I don't think saying that him beating older Southern Hemisphere 3YOs is absurd is accurate at all.
Then coming back to say that he beat nothing when all we know is that we have a handful of good 3YOs in this country is risky, as I stated.

NT

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You're making statements on quality of horses beat, which is only one step above taking the horse who ran the fastest 9 furlongs of all of the preps.

There are plenty of reasons to knock Desert Party, but I don't think saying that him beating older Southern Hemisphere 3YOs is absurd is accurate at all.
Then coming back to say that he beat nothing when all we know is that we have a handful of good 3YOs in this country is risky, as I stated.

NT

The problem I have with citing the SH 3yos thing is that it becomes completely irrelevant when you consider the level of those horses. I didn't say that the American also-rans were much better, although I'd probably give them an edge. To take it to an extreme: what if some 3 year-old in the derby beat a bunch of older claimers- would there be any merit in arguing in that horse's favor simply because he beat older horses? Age is irrelevant when we're talking about relatively slow/untalented also-rans. If none of them are that good, who cares if some of them were born 1/2 a year earlier or whatever?

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It's absurd because the SH 3yos they beat aren't any good. . .

They might not turn out to be, but I count it as six graded stakes winners or placers from the Southern Hemisphere. Which, of course, would be six more older horses than any one else in the field has beaten.

I'm not trying to offer this as a stone cold reason that either Desert Party or Regal Ransom will win the Kentucky Derby, but part of a larger picture.