Derby Fever: Where 'stupid' is contagious

[blackthroatedwind]

I assume that Atomic Rain is running as, essentially, a rabbit for West Side Bernie, or at least to ensure that Quality Road doesn't stroll along on the lead. Of course this was supposed to be the case in the Wood, and instead he was passively tucked inside, and had zero affect on the race one way or another. He probably isn't fast enough to keep up with a good horse early.....and he certainly isn't fast enough to run with one late. But, what the hell, at least he ensures that there will be one less horse entered that could finish ahead of West Side Bernie.

People keep pointing to Giacomo as an example of why people can, and should, run their tortoises against the hares. It seems to me that Giacomo had a lot more credibility heading into that Derby than the Atomic Rains of the world. It's relative, but defending Atomic Rain, especially by using Giacomo, doesn't really stand up to scrutiny.

Is it possible to insult Breen?

[justindew]

Atomic Rain has little chance of making the race anyway.

[Ogygian]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I assume that Atomic Rain is running as, essentially, a rabbit for West Side Bernie, or at least to ensure that Quality Road doesn't stroll along on the lead. Of course this was supposed to be the case in the Wood, and instead he was passively tucked inside, and had zero affect on the race one way or another. He probably isn't fast enough to keep up with a good horse early.....and he certainly isn't fast enough to run with one late. But, what the hell, at least he ensures that there will be one less horse entered that could finish ahead of West Side Bernie.

People keep pointing to Giacomo as an example of why people can, and should, run their tortoises against the hares. It seems to me that Giacomo had a lot more credibility heading into that Derby than the Atomic Rains of the world. It's relative, but defending Atomic Rain, especially by using Giacomo, doesn't really stand up to scrutiny.

I was only comparing possible odds, in 05 Giacomos morning line was 50-1, there were 4 others listed at 50-1 morning line. He was for all intensive purposes listed as one of the 5 longest shots to win the race.So was he given a snowball's chance, no he wasn't. If Atomic Rain makes the race, he finish a well beaten 18th. What aggravates me more is cross entering in the Derby and Oaks and possibly taking up a spot. Its not like if AR goes he will be taking a "better" horses spot.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Ogygian

I was only comparing possible odds, in 05 Giacomos morning line was 50-1, there were 4 others listed at 50-1 morning line. He was for all intensive purposes listed as one of the 5 longest shots to win the race.So was he given a snowball's chance, no he wasn't. If Atomic Rain makes the race, he finish a well beaten 18th. What aggravates me more is cross entering in the Derby and Oaks and possibly taking up a spot. Its not like if AR goes he will be taking a "better" horses spot.

That makes sense. I guess the better argument, or more relevent argument, is whether or not the field size should be limited to 14.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That makes sense. I guess the better argument, or more relevent argument, is whether or not the field size should be limited to 14.

And the answer to that would be no.

Glad we settled this.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

And the answer to that would be no.

Glad we settled this.

It's a complicated discussion, but it certainly seems especially relevent this year, in light of Churchill claiming their racetrack is certified as " safe " by the NTRA. While I am sure their intentions are noble, and they have done whatever is possible to ensure a safe surface, the question of whether or not a race is " safe " with 20 horses thundering around that oval seems applicable this year.

It's a long debate, and I am sure there are arguments for both sides, but IMO a stronger argument can be made for reducing the field size. All these " these horses ( it's really people in this case ) have earned a right to run " arguments don't hold water for me. I realize they run 20 plus horse fields overseas....but not on racetracks like Churchill Down's dirt course.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That makes sense. I guess the better argument, or more relevent argument, is whether or not the field size should be limited to 14.

It would be tough business-wise to make a move like that...

In my opinion, one of the best Derby's ever was '97 with Silver Charm, when they only had to use one gate.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

People keep pointing to Giacomo as an example of why people can, and should, run their tortoises against the hares. It seems to me that Giacomo had a lot more credibility heading into that Derby than the Atomic Rains of the world.

Giacomo at least had run four straight Beyers of 93 or better in his four starts coming into the Derby. An avg of 96 over those four races.

No horse in this years Kentucky Derby field comes in off of 4 straight Beyers in the 90's or better.

Even if people didn't believe his form was made up of one better than looked race after another - and didn't think he was likely to improve form because of pace, distance, and trainer - he still had to be respected some for his consistancy.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No horse in this years Kentucky Derby field comes in off of 4 straight Beyers in the 90's or better.

Musket Man is very upset that you forgot about him.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

He does edge in ... I was looking at pool 3 pp's ... he had a 92-91-90 and the Illi Derby race wasn't showing.

Quality Road comes within a point of making it as well.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He does edge in ... I was looking at pool 3 pp's ... he had a 92-91-90 and the Illi Derby race wasn't showing.

Quality Road comes within a point of making it as well.

One other would have passed that test had he had not gotten hurt.