Weekend Beyers (Genl Qrtrs 95; Papa Clem 101)

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Just look at Curlin... was a monster on dirt and not the same on grass or synthetics.

that basically proves was Kasept and Ziggy are saying.

This is silly though. You can't take one horse and say that's proves anything. I could just as easily say "just look at Zenyatta, who was a monster on both" or Midnite Lute or Tiago or Indian Blessing. All of them were good enough to win graded stakes on synthetics and on real dirt. All of them appear to be better on dirt. Why is it automatic that Pioneer can't be is all I ask? I also don't think it's fair to say that Curlin was a monster on dirt. Those last few races were FAAAAR from monster efforts and his losses on grass and synthetics weren't exactly to claiming horses.

Saying one horse proves something........I might as well say that all horses trained by Servis can win the Derby because Smarty Jones proved that.

[Diver67]

I'm hoping Pioneer is the real deal as he is my hometown horse but I do acknowledge the concerns over the surface switch and his "slow" Beyers. But it is almost comical how all the experts declare that IWR and PC are "obviously" better on dirt--and that Take the Points (also beaten by Pioneer) is "obviously" worse on synthetics. I could understand being cautious about Pioneer until he runs on dirt, but I don't understand the wide disregard for him given the horses he's beaten.

And don't get me started on some of the love-fests for Chocolate Candy, who will also "obviously" move up on dirt.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Papa Clem is about as good on dirt as he is on synthetic tracks. Even though his sire Smart Strike is also the sire of confirmed synthetic track haters Curlin and Fabulous Strike ... and both Papa Clem's dam and 2nd were Grade 1 winners on real dirt.

Take the Points is also as "good" on synthetic as he is on dirt.

I Want Revenge is light years better on dirt than synthetic. I would load up on Take the Points against IWR on a syn track.

[FATPIANO]

The unknown factor, POTN has beaten both Papa Clem and IWR, they have both come back to win big races, but on dirt, So to me common sense says take a good long look at POTN on Derby Day, no guarantees here, but HE does deserve a good long look, and if Baffert works him at Churchill Downs and he works like he does at Home, WATCH OUT

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by FATPIANO

The unknown factor, POTN has beaten both Papa Clem and IWR, they have both come back to win big races, but on dirt, So to me common sense says take a good long look at POTN on Derby Day, no guarantees here, but HE does deserve a good long look, and if Baffert works him at Churchill Downs and he works like he does at Home, WATCH OUT

be very careful with that approach. all trainers say the horses are doing well leading up to the kd, and all horses look like a million bucks. but only one of them can win.

the odds will not justify betting pioneer.

as for beating papa clem, people are reading too much into papas last win. yeah, he won the ark derby-someone had to tho. i don't like the race, or who was in it. i thought all things considered that old fashioned ran the best race. clem was all out to beat a horse that set a pretty good pace, and broke a knee. that didn't impress me at all.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Papa Clem is about as good on dirt as he is on synthetic tracks. Even though his sire Smart Strike is also the sire of confirmed synthetic track haters Curlin and Fabulous Strike ... and both Papa Clem's dam and 2nd were Grade 1 winners on real dirt.

Take the Points is also as "good" on synthetic as he is on dirt.

I Want Revenge is light years better on dirt than synthetic. I would load up on Take the Points against IWR on a syn track.

right. he got lucky in what he faced in arkansas.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

This is silly though. You can't take one horse and say that's proves anything. I could just as easily say "just look at Zenyatta, who was a monster on both" or Midnite Lute or Tiago or Indian Blessing. All of them were good enough to win graded stakes on synthetics and on real dirt. All of them appear to be better on dirt. Why is it automatic that Pioneer can't be is all I ask? I also don't think it's fair to say that Curlin was a monster on dirt. Those last few races were FAAAAR from monster efforts and his losses on grass and synthetics weren't exactly to claiming horses.

Saying one horse proves something........I might as well say that all horses trained by Servis can win the Derby because Smarty Jones proved that.

you are being silly. I said "and that proves was Kasept and Ziggy were saying"

Which was... you dont know whats going to happen.

And the Curlin example does prove that.

I never said or implied that the Curlin example means all horses who run well on dirt will suck on synthetics.. or vise versa.

Nobody knows what POTN is going to do on dirt. He could love it, like it, or hate it. But you cant say just because IWR and Papa Clem like the dirt that means POTN will...

that is what my post was about.


Edit: So basically.. the people who bet on POTN in the Derby will have no idea how this horse will take to the surface (like DrugS said, water is wet). Its a bigger gamble than betting on horses who already have established their dirt form. But than again betting is a risk vs reward situation... and POTN odds may be to low to be worth the risk.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

This is silly though. You can't take one horse and say that's proves anything. I could just as easily say "just look at Zenyatta, who was a monster on both" or Midnite Lute or Tiago or Indian Blessing. All of them were good enough to win graded stakes on synthetics and on real dirt. All of them appear to be better on dirt. Why is it automatic that Pioneer can't be is all I ask? I also don't think it's fair to say that Curlin was a monster on dirt. Those last few races were FAAAAR from monster efforts and his losses on grass and synthetics weren't exactly to claiming horses.

Saying one horse proves something........I might as well say that all horses trained by Servis can win the Derby because Smarty Jones proved that.

i never said it was automatic. i said that people making the claim that IWR and papa having dirt form somehow flatters POTN is incorrect. it tells us nothing about how pioneer will handle dirt. i said i wouldn't use him, because i think all things being equal or relatively so class-wise, that i would use a horse with proven dirt ability over one who has no proof. that i wouldn't use a horse having to do too many 'firsts' in a race like the derby.


when you consider the thousands of horses who race on poly vs how many try dirt, and how many make it on dirt, i think you'd find that horses like zenyatta are an anomaly. she is a good horse-moreso because she has handled more than one surface. but not all good horses on one surface are good on all surfaces, just because some are.