Weekend Beyers (Genl Qrtrs 95; Papa Clem 101)

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Ok so if Spectacular Bid beat Seattle Slew and Affirmed on dirt then Seattle Slew and Affirmed went on to win grass races, you wouldn't give Bid a longer look in his grass debut?

Nobody is saying it's any kind of certainty that Pioneer will handle the dirt. I have no clue whatsoever. Let me ask you how big of a part does class handicapping play when you are looking at a race? For example, let's say Rail Trip went out and beat Commentator in the Met Mile in his next race then they decide to put him on grass for his next start. I don't know how Rail Trip will handle the grass but I do know that he's a good horse to beat Commentator. Perhaps Papa Clem and IWR both suck on synthetics and are 8-10 lengths better on dirt. Entirely possible. Same could be true of Pioneer. I'm just saying that while the synthetics can mute the form of some horses and raise the form of others, it's USUALLY not going to make bad horses beat good horses. I just think that it's not a negative that he beat them and it's not meaningless. It can only be a plus. How big of one is what's to be determined.

no

i think my biggest problem about synthetics is most of those cali horses won't ever get a shot to run on anything else. maybe none of them really like it-but someone has to win, finish second, etc.

take the big cap-einstein was the class of the field, but since he had prior turf form, i thought he would be able to handle the surface and the competition-which turned out to be the case.

then you have a horse like sulamani-seemingly the class of the field. but the distance wasn't his best, and he didn't care for firm turf. he ran third in the arlington million, but moved up when stevens' horse veered out af the finish. but all of those factors combined were too much for the horse to overcome.

we've all seen a good horse who detested a surface overcome everything and manage to win. but i think far more often, you have a horse with proven ability on one surface who just can't get it done on another. curlin proved able only to win on dirt. he hit the board in his attempts on other surfaces-a testament to his ability i'm sure. but i think wagering wise, i'd take a horse proven vs competition and proven to be good on a surface over one who has never run on-especially if it's the derby.

also, keep in mind that every horse dapples out, works well and looks great-best shape ever! when leading up to the derby.

pioneer may end up doing just fine at churchill-but i'll take a horse that doesn't have more questions than answers.

[randallscott35]

I agree with Steve on POTN. Just b/c other Cal horses have done well on the real thing doesn't mean anything about how he will do on it...I will be playing against POTN more as a hunch than anything else.

[Hoist Her Flag]

And I will play against Quality Road because of the "surface" he ran on.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Hoist Her Flag

And I will play against Quality Road because of the "surface" he ran on.

care to expand on your own opinion with facts or just follow blindly behind what one ranting, disappointed trainer had to say in the heat of the moment?

[Hoist Her Flag]

My Opinion is not based on The Robot at all. I watched every race at Gulfstream this meet. I have also watched every race at Santa Anita this meet. I'm not fooled by all those "closers" at Santa Anita like Evita, Stardom, Pioneer, and many other horses who were ridicously in last place half way down the stretch and found a way to win. No other track in the country can you do that! The move that Just Ben made in that first race that day a huge move to open up a quick 3 length lead and then hold on to the victory told me something was up. No I do not believe that Big Drama is that game of a horse, I also think the Quality Road race was a 2 horse race. Dunkirk did his think from behind and Q. Road got a paid workout. I will bet 2 horses 2 win in the Derby. One of them will not be Quality Road.

[slotdirt]

If Curlin had kept on turf, I'd bet dollars to doughnuts he would have won a GI race in the United States before he ended his career last year.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

If Curlin had kept on turf, I'd bet dollars to doughnuts he would have won a GI race in the United States before he ended his career last year.

So did Good Reward... The grass stock in the states especially the handicap division SUX

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Hoist Her Flag

My Opinion is not based on The Robot at all.

"The Robot"... That's great.






I laughed.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

"The Robot"... That's great.






I laughed.

It's a great nickname. Watching an interview of him, you half expect someone to be pressing buttons on his back with canned responses.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Hoist Her Flag

My Opinion is not based on The Robot at all. I watched every race at Gulfstream this meet. I have also watched every race at Santa Anita this meet. I'm not fooled by all those "closers" at Santa Anita like Evita, Stardom, Pioneer, and many other horses who were ridicously in last place half way down the stretch and found a way to win. No other track in the country can you do that! The move that Just Ben made in that first race that day a huge move to open up a quick 3 length lead and then hold on to the victory told me something was up. No I do not believe that Big Drama is that game of a horse, I also think the Quality Road race was a 2 horse race. Dunkirk did his think from behind and Q. Road got a paid workout. I will bet 2 horses 2 win in the Derby. One of them will not be Quality Road.

I have no probs with the opinion of standing against Quality Road if you do so. However, the explanation that GP was strongly speed biased based on how a 3/2 shot who was 4-5 lengths better than his field on paper won easily in the first is flimsy at best.

One horse paid more than $10 on Fl Derby day ($10.20 2nd choice in the Nicanor race.) You will see this phenomenon a lot on the Aqu IDT- favorites win race after race and it appears to be biased towards frontrunners when in fact the horses chasing them just weren't very good, and are just as inept when moving back to the main track that doesn't have the supposed bias that day had. Keep this in mind when judging the performances on Fl Derby day.