Dunkirk -- 2 Questions

[Travis Stone]

Originally I thought 8-1 would not be possible on Dunkirk due to the sheer lack of percentage points to go around. But, looking below, I think it is a pretty fair line:



The above adds-up to 130.8% which is close enough in my opinion. Obviously there are things yet to happen -- Square Eddie for example in the Lexington -- but I assumed he won with this line and I took out Theregoesjojo and Charitable Man and went down Steve's earnings list.

I made Desert Party 12-1 because a lot of public handicappers are picking him, and I think a lot of wise guy 'cappers will as well. I think he has a good shot this year, and felt that was fair.

I think would could happen on this line though is the betting will create a big separation Hold Me Back and Maafaz (who probably doesn't go, but a free $100k is hard to turn down), which will help the top group go down in price.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Originally I thought 8-1 would not be possible on Dunkirk due to the sheer lack of percentage points to go around. But, looking below, I think it is a pretty fair line:

Nice Job

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Originally I thought 8-1 would not be possible on Dunkirk due to the sheer lack of percentage points to go around. But, looking below, I think it is a pretty fair line:



The above adds-up to 130.8% which is close enough in my opinion. Obviously there are things yet to happen -- Square Eddie for example in the Lexington -- but I assumed he won with this line and I took out Theregoesjojo and Charitable Man and went down Steve's earnings list.

I made Desert Party 12-1 because a lot of public handicappers are picking him, and I think a lot of wise guy 'cappers will as well. I think he has a good shot this year, and felt that was fair.

I think would could happen on this line though is the betting will create a big separation Hold Me Back and Maafaz (who probably doesn't go, but a free $100k is hard to turn down), which will help the top group go down in price.

Here's what TheGreek currently is offering:

I Want Revenge ** 4.65
Dunkirk ** 5.25
Quality Road ** 6.25
Friesan Fire ** 10.15
Pioneer of the Nile ** 10.15
Papa Clem ** 20.50
Desert Party ** 18.15
Terrain ** 25.50
Chocolate Candy ** 18.15
Musket Man ** 25.50
Square Eddie ** 30.50
General Quarters ** 30.50
Regal Ransom ** 30.50
West Side Bernie ** 40.50
Win Willy ** 40.50
Hold Me Back ** 40.50
Mafaaz ** 60.50
Mine That Bird ** 80.50
Charitable Man ** 80.50

That's a 9% line. Dunkirk is probably too low, but the rest of the numbers look like reasonable estimates of what the odds will be. (as you say, excluding possible dramatic changes from the Lexington or because of injury dropouts.)

--Dunbar

[Travis Stone]

I think these are overlays...

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Desert Party ** 18.15
General Quarters ** 30.50

and these are underlays...

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Dunkirk ** 5.25
Terrain ** 25.50
Chocolate Candy ** 18.15

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Here's what TheGreek currently is offering:

I Want Revenge ** 4.65
Dunkirk ** 5.25
Quality Road ** 6.25
Friesan Fire ** 10.15
Pioneer of the Nile ** 10.15
Papa Clem ** 20.50
Desert Party ** 18.15
Terrain ** 25.50
Chocolate Candy ** 18.15
Musket Man ** 25.50
Square Eddie ** 30.50
General Quarters ** 30.50
Regal Ransom ** 30.50
West Side Bernie ** 40.50
Win Willy ** 40.50
Hold Me Back ** 40.50
Mafaaz ** 60.50
Mine That Bird ** 80.50
Charitable Man ** 80.50

That's a 9% line. Dunkirk is probably too low, but the rest of the numbers look like reasonable estimates of what the odds will be. (as you say, excluding possible dramatic changes from the Lexington or because of injury dropouts.)

--Dunbar

How the hell does QR go off longer than Dunkirk given his last two races? This insane desire to make Dunkirk more than his races show is exceeded only by the psychotic hype of POTN. What has Dunkirk actually done that doesn't deserve a line of 10-1 or better. If he was the best horse in the Florida Derby he would have accelerated right by QR at the top of the stretch but he gassed like the silver and bronze he will be at best in the derby.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by docicu3

How the hell does QR go off longer than Dunkirk given his last two races? This insane desire to make Dunkirk more than his races show is exceeded only by the psychotic hype of POTN. What has Dunkirk actually done that doesn't deserve a line of 10-1 or better. If he was the best horse in the Florida Derby he would have accelerated right by QR at the top of the stretch but he gassed like the silver and bronze he will be at best in the derby.

The future odds on QR probably reflect some lingering uncertainty about the quarter crack.

--Dunbar

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

The future odds on QR probably reflect some lingering uncertainty about the quarter crack.

--Dunbar

Obviously every injury is a unique event however BB seem to run decently with a quarter crack in last years KD. QR just seems to be disrespected out of proportion to his performance on the track. All this BS that you have to factor in the "great trips" he has gotten in his wins is complete crap. The horse gets the trip he gets because he grabs the perfect spot to stalk and kill. Plain and simple...

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Obviously every injury is a unique event however BB seem to run decently with a quarter crack in last years KD. QR just seems to be disrespected out of proportion to his performance on the track. All this BS that you have to factor in the "great trips" he has gotten in his wins is complete crap. The horse gets the trip he gets because he grabs the perfect spot to stalk and kill. Plain and simple...

I don't think BB had a quarter crack in the Derby, did he?

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Obviously every injury is a unique event however BB seem to run decently with a quarter crack in last years KD. QR just seems to be disrespected out of proportion to his performance on the track. All this BS that you have to factor in the "great trips" he has gotten in his wins is complete crap. The horse gets the trip he gets because he grabs the perfect spot to stalk and kill. Plain and simple...

Big Brown didn't have a quarter crack in the Derby or Preakness but he did in the Belmont and you know how that worked out....

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by dellinger63

Big Brown didn't have a quarter crack in the Derby or Preakness but he did in the Belmont and you know how that worked out....

My bad your right....it was the 20 hole that had him being looked at as an impossible to win. The hole was no big deal.....the Belmont....well that was a very different story wasn't it

[mbahadur]

For those of you that have access to DRF Plus, there is an excellent article today by James Quinn called Derby Contender Short List.

In the article, Mr. Quinn indicates that Quality Road has by far the best speed and pace figures (even much better than IWR). The article also compares Dunkirk's speed and pace figures to Big Brown and concludes that Dunkirk represents no match and is a poor comparison to Big Brown, who had a spectacular 2-year old race.

Also, Mr. Quinn indicates that Quality Road should be able to hold off Dunkirk again unless Dunkirk possesses a significant class edge based on his breeding.

[NTamm1215]

I think that while Quality Road's Florida Derby can be questioned a bit because of his trip, his Ftn of Youth is really not getting enough respect. He was right on a very hot pace that afternoon and still finished up strong. That was a very strong effort and it seems like it's been somewhat forgotten.

If you want to talk about perfect trips and horses who probably won't enjoy one again in the Derby, I have two words for you: Friesan Fire.

NT

[King Glorious]

I still think that you don't go in the Derby unless you think you can win it and you have to plan accordingly. You know that the Preakness comes up in two short weeks and the Belmont is three weeks after that. I think so many people focus only on the Derby that they forget that they have to have a horse that's ready go complete the triple crown attempt. No Derby winner is going to be skipping the Preakness these days. Horses are like other athletes in that they have to be conditioned for the tasks that they are being asked to do. You wouldn't take a relief pitcher that's used to throwing one inning a night and all of a sudden ask him to be a starter and throw nine. Why would we expect any horse that runs once every 6-8 weeks to be ready to all of a sudden go three times in seven?

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I think that while Quality Road's Florida Derby can be questioned a bit because of his trip, his Ftn of Youth is really not getting enough respect. He was right on a very hot pace that afternoon and still finished up strong. That was a very strong effort and it seems like it's been somewhat forgotten.

If you want to talk about perfect trips and horses who probably won't enjoy one again in the Derby, I have two words for you: Friesan Fire.

NT

Friesian Fire's three races w/6F splits of 1:13 stick out like a sore thumb to me...

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I think that while Quality Road's Florida Derby can be questioned a bit because of his trip, his Ftn of Youth is really not getting enough respect. He was right on a very hot pace that afternoon and still finished up strong. That was a very strong effort and it seems like it's been somewhat forgotten.

This horse can't really control the pace in the Derby. He's just not good enough. At best, and most likely, he tries to sit a stalking trip, and prays that nothing else is coming. Problem is, there are too many horses in the race for QR to be the only horse sitting pretty on the turn. There will be multiple moves in the Derby, and (especially if the pace is fast) the race will most certainly collapse. Probably not a complete collapse but certainly not one where the horse inheriting the lead wins the race. Add to this that Velazquez is about as reliable as Prado these days and you have a very poor bet. With all the focus on POTN as the toss horse in the Derby, QR and FF make much better sense as tosses (to WIN) and they will be shorter odds.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I don't really see anyone disrespecting Quality Road. Just kind of discussing the race dynamics of the Florida Derby. In regards to trips, I agree somewhat that he has been able to get some easy trips because he makes the trip. He's quick, but has shown he can rate kindly. But when you look at his two big wins in Florida, it's hard to ignore the fact he has sat perfect trips. It's hard to imagine he'll get that kind of a setup again though...in a 20 horse field nonetheless. What if he breaks a step slow and takes a lot of dirt to the face?

They said the same things about Smarty Jones in 2004. How come it's always the good horses that have speed and quickness that always get downgraded because they have the speed and quickness to allow themselves to get good trips while the ones that don't possess those attributes and always find themselves in trouble are always the ones on the "horses to watch list" because it's expected that sooner or later, they will get their good trip? I don't think it matters if it's a 40-horse field. If he has more natural speed than 38 or 39 of them, chances are he's going to get the same kind of setup that he's been getting. Out of the horses that are prospective Derby horses at this point, how many do you see that should be in front of him early and keep him from sitting in the same position that he's sat in his last two?