Interesting Developments

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

As for POTN, he never struck me as anything more than a workmanlike performer. He tries hard and beats what they put him in against. I understand that he's presently the POLY HATERS whipping boy but all the horse can do it run where they put him. If he fails on the dirt, SO ****IN WHAT!!!! He goes back to the POLY and TURF and carves out a decent career.

You can say that about everything, but if you are betting the Derby, throwing out one of the favorites, and being right, gives you a chance to make some money. Isn't that both what we are talking about here and what playing the game is all about?

[Hoist Her Flag]

that is what the game is all about. 20 days away.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Hoist Her Flag

that is what the game is all about. 20 days away.

The Derby is hardly what the game is all about. Maybe on the internet....but not at the windows where it really matters.

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The Derby is hardly what the game is all about. Maybe on the internet....but not at the windows where it really matters.

Spoken like a true bettor

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You can say that about everything, but if you are betting the Derby, throwing out one of the favorites, and being right, gives you a chance to make some money. Isn't that both what we are talking about here and what playing the game is all about?

No doubt. But what exactly do we base tossing POLY horses on? This has not really been address here (or anywhere).

Wouldn't I be in a position to make a better decision concerning those horses that have already run on dirt?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

No doubt. But what exactly do we base tossing POLY horses on? This has not really been address here (or anywhere).

Wouldn't I be in a position to make a better decision concerning those horses that have already run on dirt?

It would, of course, be nice to be able to always make decisions on what we have seen, but that isn't always the case, and in this year's Derby, if you are betting, you have to make a decision on Pioneer of the Nile, as he is one of the favorites. Here's what we have.....a horse that ran fairly well in his debut on the turf, and then ran slowly in a bunch of synthetic turf races, while earning a reputation based on the names of the races he ran in and not on his actual on track performances. Could he improve on the dirt? Of course, but he likely won't ( as few horses are proficient on all surfaces ), and at the odds he will be, based on how he has performed, he is a good horse to bet against.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

and at the odds he will be, based on how he has performed, he is a good horse to bet against.

exactly


It's possible that he will be as good as his odds on dirt, but not very probable.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It would, of course, be nice to be able to always make decisions on what we have seen, but that isn't always the case, and in this year's Derby, if you are betting, you have to make a decision on Pioneer of the Nile, as he is one of the favorites. Here's what we have.....a horse that ran fairly well in his debut on the turf, and then ran slowly in a bunch of synthetic turf races, while earning a reputation based on the names of the races he ran in and not on his actual on track performances. Could he improve on the dirt? Of course, but he likely won't ( as few horses are proficient on all surfaces ), and at the odds he will be, based on how he has performed, he is a good horse to bet against.

Let's be more precise. I don't indulge in speed figures but from what I've read here POLY races grade out slower. I don't know if CJ (or someone else) has a POLY to DIRT conversion worked out. If this is the case, and POTN's races are 'historically' SLOWER then my point is not a makeable one. But, 'slower in relation to what'? is my question otherwise. All I know is that this horse has finished ahead of all the horses its faced in CALI. Some of them have done nicely elsewhere.

Tell you this much, and I am NOT a FAN of this horse. I'd be more comfortable tossing Quality Road and Friesan Fire (and I will). I know they can't win without perfect trips. I don't know what this horse can do on the dirt, however.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Let's be more precise. I don't indulge in speed figures but from what I've read here POLY races grade out slower. I don't know if CJ (or someone else) has a POLY to DIRT conversion worked out. If this is the case, and POTN's races are 'historically' SLOWER then my point is not a makeable one. But, 'slower' in relation to what is my question otherwise? All I know is that this horse has finished ahead of all the horses its faced in CALI. Some of them have done nicely elsewhere.

Tell you this much, and I am NOT a FAN of this horse. I'd be more comfortable tossing Quality Road and Friesan Fire (and I will). I know they can't win without perfect trips. I don't know what this horse can do on the dirt, however.

we're all in the same boat on that score.

[Indian Charlie]

Oxtails are exotic?

Have people never been to anything better than Arby's?

[Scurlogue Champ]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Oxtails are exotic?

Have people never been to anything better than Arby's?

Come on, I love Arby's.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Oxtails are exotic?

Have people never been to anything better than Arby's?

I agree. It's pretty sad.

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Oxtails are exotic?

Have people never been to anything better than Arby's?

[HaloWishingwell]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It would, of course, be nice to be able to always make decisions on what we have seen, but that isn't always the case, and in this year's Derby, if you are betting, you have to make a decision on Pioneer of the Nile, as he is one of the favorites. Here's what we have.....a horse that ran fairly well in his debut on the turf, and then ran slowly in a bunch of synthetic turf races, while earning a reputation based on the names of the races he ran in and not on his actual on track performances. Could he improve on the dirt? Of course, but he likely won't ( as few horses are proficient on all surfaces ), and at the odds he will be, based on how he has performed, he is a good horse to bet against.

Your point makes sense but POTN odds the last 3 races have been ).30,1.70 and 1.30-1. It appears QUALITY ROAD, DUNKIRK, I WANT REVENGE and maybe FREISAN FIRE will be bet ahead of him. I think his backers won't mind 6-1 or 7-1 on him regardless of no dirt experience.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

Your point makes sense but POTN odds the last 3 races have been ).30,1.70 and 1.30-1. It appears QUALITY ROAD, DUNKIRK, I WANT REVENGE and maybe FREISAN FIRE will be bet ahead of him. I think his backers won't mind 6-1 or 7-1 on him regardless of no dirt experience.

You really think you will get 7-1?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I wouldn't be all that surprised if he is 7/1.

The Derby betting can be kind of weird though ... as every year it seems like one or two horses get hit with an unexpected flood of money. Take a look at Stephen Got Even or the absurd Dollar Bill for examples.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

Your point makes sense but POTN odds the last 3 races have been ).30,1.70 and 1.30-1. It appears QUALITY ROAD, DUNKIRK, I WANT REVENGE and maybe FREISAN FIRE will be bet ahead of him. I think his backers won't mind 6-1 or 7-1 on him regardless of no dirt experience.

I agree I can see him going off as the probable 4th pick in the derby if QR goes and may even slip to the 5th pick if Dunkirk gets in. 5th choice out of 20 pool horses is not bad. Regardless if you took him in the Day 3 pool you could have had 11-1 on him.

[PeteMugg]

POTN has battled Gomez the last two and still managed to win. He may not like the dirt or the distance but he certainly has no shot if he is rank. I'd say let him run and hope for the best.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by PeteMugg

POTN has battled Gomez the last two and still managed to win. He may not like the dirt or the distance but he certainly has no shot if he is rank. I'd say let him run and hope for the best.

His last race was not visually impressive, nor was it impressive from a beyer standpoint (96). The call here for a horseplayer if you are considering him for the derby is will he be better on traditional dirt than on syth or turf. He's by Empire Maker not unlike David Caroll's Acoma, she eventually had to prove the same questions by winning on turf, syth, and then dirt. But no one knows absolutely if he will be good enough. Like someone said in this thread alot is said about synth horses going backward on dirt, what about the flip side synth horses improving on dirt?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

No doubt. But what exactly do we base tossing POLY horses on? This has not really been address here (or anywhere).

Wouldn't I be in a position to make a better decision concerning those horses that have already run on dirt?

i'm basing it on the belief that most horses aren't dual surface horses. a few are-barbaro and big brown handled turf and dirt with aplomb, while curlin the great ( ) for example did not. i'm inclined to go with a horse who has exhibited where he is at his best.

horses can hit the board on the one, but translate board hits to wins on their best surface.. i want revenge is one example, street sense is another. he beat hard spun in ky, but HS turned the tables at turfway.