3-year-olds with a look in The Met Mile

[blackthroatedwind]

Old Fashioned is really the one who belongs in the Met.

I was talking about this on the show Saturday, and this is clearly the year for 3YOs to race against older horses, as they are much slower in general than their younger counterparts.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Old Fashioned is really the one who belongs in the Met.

I was talking about this on the show Saturday, and this is clearly the year for 3YOs to race against older horses, as they are much slower in general than their younger counterparts.

I know that we'll probably have to agree to disagree on this one, but aren't we writing off Old Fashioned as a Derby contender a bit prematurely. Looking at the list of probables for the Arkansas Derby (and the likely change in pace dynamics with Silver City not in the race), I'd be surprised if Old Fashioned didn't win that race by open lengths.

With The Pamplemousse off the Derby Trail now, after looking at the list of probable Derby contestants, I'm hard-pressed to find a horse that will be in front of Old Fashioned at Churchill Downs. Given his trainer's recent record at the Derby, I would not be shocked to see a loose-on-the lead Old Fashioned turn in a Hard Spun-type effort in the Derby. It's a lot different setting the pace, even if it's fast, than it is chasing it, as he was forced to do in the Rebel and Southwest.

All that said, should Old Fashioned flop in the Derby, I agree that, as a son of Unbridled's Song with a potential stud career in front of him, the Met Mile would be an interesting assignment for him.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I know that we'll probably have to agree to disagree on this one, but aren't we writing off Old Fashioned as a Derby contender a bit prematurely. Looking at the list of probables for the Arkansas Derby (and the likely change in pace dynamics with Silver City not in the race), I'd be surprised if Old Fashioned didn't win that race by open lengths.

With The Pamplemousse off the Derby Trail now, after looking at the list of probable Derby contestants, I'm hard-pressed to find a horse that will be in front of Old Fashioned at Churchill Downs. Given his trainer's recent record at the Derby, I would not be shocked to see a loose-on-the lead Old Fashioned turn in a Hard Spun-type effort in the Derby. It's a lot different setting the pace, even if it's fast, than it is chasing it, as he was forced to do in the Rebel and Southwest.

All that said, should Old Fashioned flop in the Derby, I agree that, as a son of Unbridled's Song with a potential stud career in front of him, the Met Mile would be an interesting assignment for him.

I feel the same way as you do. While I don't really like the chances of Old Fashioned in the Kentucky Derby, I do think that the way the Arkansas Derby will play out could lead to a dominating (yet deceiving) victory. Off of that, it's almost impossible not to go on to Kentucky and as you noted, the scratch of The Pamplemousse certainly doesn't hurt Old Fashioned's chances. When you think of Hard Spun and Lion Heart in recent years as horses that didn't really want 10f but got out there and had it their own way, you want to give Old Fashioned a little bit longer of a look.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I know that we'll probably have to agree to disagree on this one, but aren't we writing off Old Fashioned as a Derby contender a bit prematurely. Looking at the list of probables for the Arkansas Derby (and the likely change in pace dynamics with Silver City not in the race), I'd be surprised if Old Fashioned didn't win that race by open lengths.



All that said, should Old Fashioned flop in the Derby, I agree that, as a son of Unbridled's Song with a potential stud career in front of him, the Met Mile would be an interesting assignment for him.

Oh I assume he'll do enough for his connections to let him get drowned in the Derby. After that it would be a good a move for them to try the Met. They probably won't even consider it, but in my opinion, they should.

But, what do I know, when connections like Darley take a horse like Past the Point, who runs a terrific race in the Woodward, and then race him on synthetics, denying very real chances in Grade 1s like the Donn and Carter, it only reinforces the thought that far too often horses are denied their best chances to shine by misguided decisions.

Which spot will be tougher this year......the Whitney or the Jim Dandy? At this point there is a very real chance it will be the Jim Dandy. How many 3YOs do you think will race in the Whitney?

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Oh I assume he'll do enough for his connections to let him get drowned in the Derby. After that it would be a good a move for them to try the Met. They probably won't even consider it, but in my opinion, they should.

But, what do I know, when connections like Darley take a horse like Past the Point, who runs a terrific race in the Woodward, and then race him on synthetics, denying very real chances in Grade 1s like the Donn and Carter, it only reinforces the thought that far too often horses are denied their best chances to shine by misguided decisions.

Which spot will be tougher this year......the Whitney or the Jim Dandy? At this point there is a very real chance it will be the Jim Dandy. How many 3YOs do you think will race in the Whitney?

You're not going to get an argument from me about whether I'd like to see 3YOs taking on their elders earlier than has been the trend in recent years. It wasn't all that long ago that horses like Java Gold and Easy Goer prepped for the Travers in the Whitney, but that seems like ages ago.

Due to the competition from the Haskell and increasingly the West Virginia Derby, the Jim Dandy has largely been a race in recent years that has had one standout and a lot of allowance-type filler, even when we have a good crop of 3YOs such as in 2007. By comparison, perhaps with the exception of 2008 (due to weakness in the handicap division), the Whitney has been a legitimate Grade I race (almost a summit-meeting of division leaders) year after year. This year may be an anomoly; it's far too early to tell.

[King Glorious]

Any thread where Java Gold can be mentioned is a good thread. He was actually taking on older horses even earlier in the year in 1987. When he won the Whitney, one of the main rivals in that race was fellow 3yo Gulch, who had beaten older in the Met Mile earlier that year.

[sumitas]

You all are making some good points . A fit 3 yr old with good foundation maybe deserves a shot at the Met .