4/4 (AQU): Wood (G1); Carter (G1); Bay Shore (G3); Excelsior (G3)

[eajinabi]

West Side Bernie running again?? Geez

[pick4]

Capt. Candy Man is not money in the bank. He was outclassed in his last race but take a look back at the Hutch. Those horses came back to run up the track in their next races. Beating Hello Broadway and Break Water Edison might have deserved kudos in November but not in a slow paced 7f race at Gulfstream in February.

Taqurab will go to the front and get the lead and might be tough to catch. Not For Silver ran against a speed favoring Laurel track and cutting back might be a good thing for him. I think Capt Candy Man is more hype than anything and is the type of horse you want to take a chance against.
I might include him in my pick 4 but it will be a defensive play.

The Excelsior does not have a clear cut favorite any one of four could win the race. The Wood looks like a Gotham II which the top two placing horses switching final positions. The Carter has the favorites as the speed and this race looks like there will be a pace meltdown. Tale of Ekati, Kodiak Kowboy, or even Ah Day could close to win.

This ALL stakes pick 4 has potential to pay a pretty penny if things break right.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by eajinabi

West Side Bernie running again?? Geez

It would be a shame if West Side Bernie keeps Dunkirk out of the Kentucky Derby. If I owned a top quality race horse I would skip the Breeders Cup and point to the Delta Jackpot.

[slotdirt]

Honestly, Pletcher knew the game, he gambled on Hallandale, and lost. If you don't have enough graded earnings to make the Derby, chances are, you probably don't deserve to be in the Derby, and Dunkirk is no exception.

[Travis Stone]

It's a good sequence, not sure if it's a good betting opportunity, but good racing.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Honestly, Pletcher knew the game, he gambled on Hallandale, and lost. If you don't have enough graded earnings to make the Derby, chances are, you probably don't deserve to be in the Derby, and Dunkirk is no exception.

um, Dunkirk really deserves to be in the Derby.

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

um, Dunkirk really deserves to be in the Derby.

Not really, but hey, we all have our opinions.

[Linny]

Based on his ability, he deserves to be there, but he hasn't done what he needs to do to make it. It would be as if Jerkens had again forgotten to nominate Quality Road. He belongs but his people haven't done what it takes to get there.

No reason Dunkirk didn't go to one of the graded preps instead of the allowance.

[slotdirt]

It's like saying Penn State deserved to be in the NCAA tournament this year. Sure, they might be a better team than UT-Chattanooga or Morehead State, but their out of conference schedule sucked and they didn't win the games they need to win to get in the race.

Dunkirk (or Rock Hard Ten circa 2004 if you prefer) hasn't done what is necessary to make the starting gate in the Derby, end of story.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Not really, but hey, we all have our opinions.

This fall, Dunkirk may develop into one of the top 3 year olds in the country. I just don't understand the hard-on everyone has for this horse with such little seasoning and experience. Rushing to the Derby is probably not the best thing for him anyway. The current system to get into the Derby rewards horses who have experience and success (ie..graded earnings).

If dunkirk doesn't get in, it's not because he's not one of the top 20 3-year olds. It's just because he's light on experience. It's not the end of the world, unless you unloaded on him in the 2nd future pool.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Not really, but hey, we all have our opinions.

would you please explain... besides the graded earning thing... why he doesnt deserve a shot in it? He'd have as good of a shot to win as anyone.. And is easily a top 5 best 3 year old.

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

would you please explain... besides the graded earning thing... why he doesnt deserve a shot in it? He'd have as good of a shot to win as anyone.. And is easily a top 5 best 3 year old.

What else is there besides the graded earning thing? That and the Kempton race are the only things that matter when it comes to the Derby starting gate. Pletcher and co. knew the rules and unless something happens, he'll be left out of the race, and deservedly so.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Honestly, Pletcher knew the game, he gambled on Hallandale, and lost. If you don't have enough graded earnings to make the Derby, chances are, you probably don't deserve to be in the Derby, and Dunkirk is no exception.

you gotta be kidding!!

some horses accumulate graded earnings from 2 y.o. races and some of those races are just plain bad.

[Antitrust32]

If dumb Churchill can let a slow winner from a race in England into the race..

then they should make a provision to have the top two finishers in the Bluegrass, Ark Derby, Wood, and FL derby in the race.

It is a shame that a horse can win a good purse in a 2yo stake and not race again til the Derby, but still get in over a horse who just ran second in a major prep race.

[slotdirt]

I think that would be fine, if they changed it to a "win and you're in concept." As it is though, I don't get the griping when everybody is playing under the same rules.

And Dunkirk might end up being one of the best of his generation, but I think the hype might be a bit premature.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by pick4

It would be a shame if West Side Bernie keeps Dunkirk out of the Kentucky Derby. If I owned a top quality race horse I would skip the Breeders Cup and point to the Delta Jackpot.

West Side Bernie didn't really run that bad in the BC and really the only inexplicably bad race he's ever run was at Turfway last time out. I understand your argument but I don't think WSB should be the object of your ire.

Also, it is due time that everyone come to grips with the fact that the rules have been the same all the way. It's not like Pletcher chose to run his horse in 1 graded stakes race and then told that he had to win to be guaranteed a spot. He knew what was at stake last week. He lost and then he b.itched about it.

If Dunkirk finishes 21st on the list it will be a shame that he's kept out by Mafaaz because the brain trust at CD thinks they need to turn the Derby into a global event. Europeans may know what you're talking about when you say "First Saturday in May" it just doesn't have anything to do with the Ky Derby.

NT

[Travis Stone]

Dunkirk ran second to the likely favorite in the Kentucky Derby, he deserves a shot, but rules are rules, and he might get left out, which would be a shame.

West Side Bernie has run some decent races. And the Delta Jackpot, for which people love to bash, has become a legitimate race. Big Drama, who won this past weekend, took it down last year. It's not like it's some hapless bum. Delta Downs did something very few racetracks are doing well: growing a race. People bash it because it's $750k and counts a lot towards the Derby, but then you should hate the system, not the race.