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  #1  
Old 04-02-2009, 02:56 PM
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justindew justindew is offline
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Default Beyer Explains

http://www.drf.com/news/article/102659.html
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  #2  
Old 04-02-2009, 03:02 PM
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"The figure for the Florida Derby looked low."

Not that is some explanation...

Paul
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  #3  
Old 04-02-2009, 03:03 PM
MISTERGEE MISTERGEE is offline
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yes, overly technical
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  #4  
Old 04-02-2009, 03:10 PM
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The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MISTERGEE
yes, overly technical
Whatever number you give it ... it is a pure guessing game.

And the reason why is because GP only carded one two-turn dirt route - and to make matters much worse you had very heavy wind on the day.
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  #5  
Old 04-02-2009, 03:12 PM
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philcski philcski is offline
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By the way, if I make an adjustment for the mile races' times based on the no runup, I match Drugs' 106.
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  #6  
Old 04-02-2009, 03:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
By the way, if I make an adjustment for the mile races' times based on the no runup, I match Drugs' 106.
How are your figures matching up with what they publish for Santa Anita?
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  #7  
Old 04-02-2009, 03:30 PM
SniperSB23 SniperSB23 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sightseek
How are your figures matching up with what they publish for Santa Anita?
I really hope Phil isn't wasting time making figures for Santa Anita.
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  #8  
Old 04-02-2009, 03:32 PM
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philcski philcski is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sightseek
How are your figures matching up with what they publish for Santa Anita?

Sniper's right, I don't waste my time there. Actually my database is really behind because I've hardly played anything in the last 6 months thanks to the economy. Going to get it up and running for Keeneland and Churchill.
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  #9  
Old 04-02-2009, 05:14 PM
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Hickory Hill Hoff Hickory Hill Hoff is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Whatever number you give it ... it is a pure guessing game.

And the reason why is because GP only carded one two-turn dirt route - and to make matters much worse you had very heavy wind on the day.
Careful with that statement....may rise some eyebrows
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  #10  
Old 04-02-2009, 03:08 PM
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Bobby Fischer Bobby Fischer is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pweizer
"The figure for the Florida Derby looked low."

Not that is some explanation...

Paul
"we concluded there had been a change in the historic relationship between times at 1 1/8 miles and other distances at Gulfstream. We don't know why, but we did know that many of the 1 1/8-mile figures had to be increased."

The official explanation almost makes it sound like they didn't know 9 furlongs was 2 turns or something, which obviously isn't the case.

The Truth is that there is pressure for beyer figs to represent the performance of the horse. If they represent the performance of the horse, then (ridiculous?) claims such as "Quality Road's 109 beyer certifies him as KD contender...." can be made. Also it sounds less ridiculous to say a horse bounced or regressed, that happened to clearly move forward.

The effort has to be made to represent a good performance. If beyers aren't misconstrued as performance figures, then what the hell good are they?

How do the graph and sheets describe the race? I don't check those, but if they are calling QR and Dunkirk's race top prep performances, it further strengthens this point.

Also credit Phil for being one of the first regulars to have a clue, Brother.
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  #11  
Old 04-02-2009, 03:05 PM
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The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justindew
The problem I see with what Beyer said is that a change in the relationship between 9f dirt races at GP and other distances should have no impact on the number in the Fla Derby ... because it was the only two-turn dirt route carded - and one-turn and two-turn races are always split.

You can have pars for distances and everything else - but when the wind is blowing 30 MPH and the weather is funky .. what good are they?

You have to cut the race loose from everything else and project.

None of this would be an issue if GP did what AQU has done. They have a 9f dirt race carded 30 minutes before the 9f Wood Memorial.
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  #12  
Old 04-02-2009, 03:09 PM
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philcski philcski is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
The problem I see with what Beyer said is that a change in the relationship between 9f dirt races at GP and other distances should have no impact on the number in the Fla Derby ... because it was the only two-turn dirt route carded - and one-turn and two-turn races are always split.

You can have pars for distances and everything else - but when the wind is blowing 30 MPH and the weather is funky .. what good are they?

You have to cut the race loose from everything else and project.

None of this would be an issue if GP did what AQU has done. They have a 9f dirt race carded 30 minutes before the 9f Wood Memorial.
The racing secretary could give a sh1t about us figure nerds. However, I don't need a figure to know that Quality Road should be the Derby favorite based on that performance, and as much of a hater I am towards Dunkirk and Pletcher the Robot, he deserves to be in the starting gate over junk that wins the Illinois Derby or the winner of the Lanes End.
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  #13  
Old 04-02-2009, 03:12 PM
Danzig Danzig is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
The racing secretary could give a sh1t about us figure nerds. However, I don't need a figure to know that Quality Road should be the Derby favorite based on that performance, and as much of a hater I am towards Dunkirk and Pletcher the Robot, he deserves to be in the starting gate over junk that wins the Illinois Derby or the winner of the Lanes End.

or perhaps the winner in england. we all have to remember, when perusing the graded list and speculating who's in/out, that only the top 19 will go.
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  #14  
Old 04-02-2009, 05:17 PM
Merlinsky Merlinsky is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
or perhaps the winner in england. we all have to remember, when perusing the graded list and speculating who's in/out, that only the top 19 will go.
Mafaaz is running in the Blue Grass after which he might've confirmed he belongs or is a hopeless longshot in contention for finishing dead last. Many have pointed out he has connections who aren't likely to ruin him if he's got more in common with the ponies in the post parade than the other Derby horses. The crock of course is that, if he rocks it, his "proof" will take place on a synthetic surface but it's not like others won't be in a similar position of having not run on dirt in the U.S.
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  #15  
Old 04-02-2009, 03:22 PM
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Linny Linny is offline
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Not so much that racing secretaries care about figure makers but race tracks know that the bettors thrive on INFORMATION.
This is why Belmont always carded a 12f starter on Belmont day. This is why most tracks do card additional races at the distance/configuration of the day's big races. It's not Beyer's convenience but for the tracks customer's convenience. Beside that, racing secretaries are usually guys that have some foundation in the game. It's not like racing secretaries are guys that were hired from the ranks of fire AIG execs. They know they game.
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  #16  
Old 04-02-2009, 06:21 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Linny
Not so much that racing secretaries care about figure makers but race tracks know that the bettors thrive on INFORMATION.
This is why Belmont always carded a 12f starter on Belmont day. This is why most tracks do card additional races at the distance/configuration of the day's big races. It's not Beyer's convenience but for the tracks customer's convenience. Beside that, racing secretaries are usually guys that have some foundation in the game. It's not like racing secretaries are guys that were hired from the ranks of fire AIG execs. They know they game.

TV was the reason there used to be another 1 1/2 mile race on the Belmont card. It gave whoever was doing the coverage the opportunity to test out their equipment for covering the race.
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