Dunkirk

[Indian Charlie]

He ain't no Patena.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Dismantling Warrior's Reward - who ran 2nd behind him in his alw race - it doesn't seem as impressive after WR was a soundly beaten 8th at 5/1 odds with no big excuse behind Musket Man in the low rated Tampa Derby.

I realize Dunkirk was hung wide on the first turn while WR saved ground and all ... but 3rd place finisher Sincero - beaten 6.5 lengths by Dunkirk - was beaten 9 by Take The Points and 6.5 by Free Country in his two prior starts. He was only a path wider than Dunkirk on both turns - and considering the way he got shuffled on the far turn - it was pretty shocking that he was only giving slight ground away to Dunkirk through the lane.

Yeah - the 98 Beyer with the wide trip looks great - but that fig might be high. The 2nd place finisher has already flopped. And the 3rd place finisher had no worse of a trip and still managed to get a career top Beyer.

I understand he hasn't done anything wrong ... but this horse has not even come close to showing the kind of talent a Big Brown or Curlin had shown in there first two races.

I hope Pletcher runs his rabbit with him .. the way to bet the Florida Derby is to get Dunkirk out of the tri IMO.

[Bobby Fischer]

is Dunkirk brilliant ? = not so far

is Dunkirk overrated ? = by a lot of people

Did Dunkirk face the full effect of 9furlong Gulfstream wide 1st turn bias ? = No, a decent inside speed did not save all the ground , loom a winning threat , get a breather, & force the "outside horse" to challenge a fresh rival on the 2nd turn.

Can a healthy reasonable trip Dunkirk run 9 furlongs in less than 1:50 ? = yes

Can anyone else ? = If he doesn't tire badly Quality Road, and maybe possibly Beethoven on his best day... JoJo= hellNoNo


That is basically where i'm at with this. I know it's fashionable to over-think reasons why a popular favorite who hasn't run a brilliant race is going to lose. And I know Quality Road ran a brilliant 1-turn mile...
Sometimes solid beats spectacular in a 9 or 10 furlong race. Sometimes spectacular milers suck at 9 furlongs. I'm rooting for one of them to run the kind of race that stamps them the derby favorite. I could care less which one, but Dunkirk appears most likely to win here. His normal race wins, while I don't see Quality Road loving the stretch out as "normal" - QR could quit just as likely as he could romp.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

t pleach has never delivered a killer for the derby.. but if used as a prep as it should dunkirk may get into and peak at the right time . i like the horse and hope he does well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GghCs...eature=related

dunkirk..

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

t pleach has never delivered a killer for the derby.. but if used as a prep as it should dunkirk may get into and peak at the right time . i like the horse and hope he does well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GghCs...eature=related

dunkirk..

Nice Matt!

only North American appearance - 4/2 Ft. Lauderdale

http://www.ironmaiden.com/index.php?...articleid=1098

must be an omen

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

t pleach has never delivered a killer for the derby.. but if used as a prep as it should dunkirk may get into and peak at the right time . i like the horse and hope he does well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GghCs...eature=related

dunkirk..

the problem is he can't use it as a prep in the format you are referring to... he is in the big brown/smarty jones conundrum of one shot to get enough graded earnings to get in the gate. 3rd won't be good enough.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by philcski

the problem is he can't use it as a prep in the format you are referring to... he is in the big brown/smarty jones conundrum of one shot to get enough graded earnings to get in the gate. 3rd won't be good enough.

if he moves forward as he should and the jerkins horse blows his wad or fails to be so brilliant..he should do well in the derby if he gets in..hes ped and connections are not junk..

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

t pleach has never delivered a killer for the derby.. but if used as a prep as it should dunkirk may get into and peak at the right time . i like the horse and hope he does well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GghCs...eature=related

dunkirk..

I don't know how much of 'just a prep' it can be, considering he probably has to win to get the earnings.

[SniperSB23]

Hopefully Pletcher's rabbit works as well as Bishop Court Hill and Spanish Chestnut did.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Hopefully Pletcher's rabbit works as well as Bishop Court Hill and Spanish Chestnut did.

Actually, Spanish Chestnut did his job in the Derby (6F in 1:09 and change), setting the race up for a closer (Giacomo). Bandini didn't hold up his part of the bargain.

[parsixfarms]

Let's not forget that Pletcher tried the same thing in the 2002 Florida Derby with Smooth Jazz, as a rabbit for Nokoma. He ended up setting the race up for Harlan's Holiday.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Actually, Spanish Chestnut did his job in the Derby (6F in 1:09 and change), setting the race up for a closer (Giacomo). Bandini didn't hold up his part of the bargain.

Bandini never was a closer. He won his first two races wire-to-wire and stalked the paces from fairly up close in the FoY and Blue Grass.

I think Spanish Chestnut was used more to make things harder for favorite Bellamy Road than to help his stablemate.

Just as Bishop Court Hill was used to more make things harder for Lava Man than it was to help out Flower Alley - who also wasn't a closer.

Same with Lukas running Camanche Trail as a rabbit more to hurt Holy Bull than help a stalker like Tabasco Cat.

The rabbit flatters setup closers like Giacomo, Borrego, and Concern ... and can hurt the stalking types almost as much as the seemingly need-the-lead speed horses.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I'm not thrilled with Dunkirk.

i agree, if he wins this week i'll change my view. but i think its a chump bet to take a short price on this horse in the FLA derby. he has not beaten much but that could change. i look for value not the bandwagon.

[Thunder Gulch]

I wish I could get odds against Dunkirk starting in the Derby.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

He ain't no Patena.

At ten times the price .. I'd take either Patena or West Side Bernie over him in a heart beat.