Win Willy

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Let's see, Afleet Alex was an accomplished 2YO, who won a Grade 1, and placed in two others including the BC ( where he was tons the best ), whereas Old Fashioned was a hype machine that won one race of any meaning ( against a field that is now being shown to have been claimer riddled ). Afleet Alex bombed in the Rebel, so badly that it wasn't hard to believe the lung infection story after the race, whereas hype machine Old Fashioned lost probably because he's both too keen and distance challenged. Now, don't get me wrong, Old Fashioned is a nice horse, but these two situations are only comparable in that the same race is involved. Please don't compare Old Fashioned to Afleet Alex.

Sorry, but I will beg to differ on whether or not Old Fashioned was being pointed for the Rebel.

That's exactly what I said at the beginning in saying Afleet Alex ran his worst race in the Rebel and now Old Fashioned has run his worst to date. Afleet Alex certainly beat better fields at 2, but Old Fashioned was never challenged and ran comparable figures. To say he's "distance challenged" at this point is pure speculation. He clearly hasn't been pushed at all with one work in a month, and ran second by 8 on class alone after chasing a fast pace.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

That's exactly what I said at the beginning in saying Afleet Alex ran his worst race in the Rebel and now Old Fashioned has run his worst to date. Afleet Alex certainly beat better fields at 2, but Old Fashioned was never challenged and ran comparable figures. To say he's "distance challenged" at this point is pure speculation. He clearly hasn't been pushed at all with one work in a month, and ran second by 8 on class alone after chasing a fast pace.

I beg to differ. I think he ran second by eight lengths because the rest of the field sucked....badly. Did you take a good look at their respective pps?

Old Fashioned is a nice horse. In some years he might even be a Derby contender. Not this year.

[ArlJim78]

a top derby contender should be able to run on a fast pace for 1 1/16 miles with a good inside post at Oaklawn with no other top derby competitors in the race and not get mowed down late.

if he can't handle that challenge, how in the world will he handle the derby?

[slotdirt]

I don't know, I can't toss the horse out yet, particularly with the underwhelming efforts of many others out there thus far.

[philcski]

Old Fashioned still got a 98 Beyer for the Rebel.

Is he a nice horse? Absolutely. Is he distance challenged? Probably. Find me an Unbridled's Song out of a sprint mare who wants a mile and a quarter, especially one who's shown he likes to contend the pace no matter how fast it is. Eight Belles had a stout bottom side and she was the first Unbridled's Song to even make an impact in the Triple Crown.

Old Fashioned, distance challenged or not, would have had last year's Derby field over a barrel like Big Brown did but this year's crop is much, much stronger and deeper.

[Thunder Gulch]

I'm not disagreeing with anything you guys are saying, but does anyone actually believe that Jones was really pointing his horse for a big effort here? The evidence strongly suggests otherwise. That's why they call them prep races folks.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

I'm not disagreeing with anything you guys are saying, but does anyone actually believe that Jones was really pointing his horse for a big effort here? The evidence strongly suggests otherwise. That's why they call them prep races folks.

See, I don't know what this Jones guy is thinking with this horse. I don't see any thinking going on here with the human connections of this horse. He looked a little odd towards the end of the Remsen. Then, they twice act like the horse is running in the Met Mile. I've seen no effort at all made to get this horse to relax. They're engaging the leader going into the turn, and a fkn chimpanzee could probably have figured out that those leaders would have stopped on their own.

[ninetoone]

I'm willing to give OF another chance. A friend of mine & I were hoping before the race that a similar outcome would unfold so that maybe some of the bandwagon would bail.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

Eight Belles had a stout bottom side

Unless you're talking about her butt I would disagree. Her dam absolutely flopped every time they ran her a route distance - but she was a nice enough sprinter.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I don't know, I can't toss the horse out yet, particularly with the underwhelming efforts of many others out there thus far.

Who has been so underwhelming?

[slotdirt]

Aside from I Want Revenge and Fresian Fire in the slop, what dirt prep has you saying "wow" like Big Brown last year (though I wasn't one saying wow then) or Barbaro in 2006, etc. I'm just not sold on anybody quite yet, and I'm not willing to toss Old Fashioned because of that. I will toss Musket Man, however.

[slotdirt]

And Win Willy, speaking of this thread.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Aside from I Want Revenge and Fresian Fire in the slop, what dirt prep has you saying "wow" like Big Brown last year (though I wasn't one saying wow then) or Barbaro in 2006, etc. I'm just not sold on anybody quite yet, and I'm not willing to toss Old Fashioned because of that. I will toss Musket Man, however.

Quality Road's FOY wasn't a wow race? Considering there have been four or five major preps thus far, I'd say four wow races is pretty strong..

[Scurlogue Champ]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I beg to differ. I think he ran second by eight lengths because the rest of the field sucked....badly. Did you take a good look at their respective pps?

Old Fashioned is a nice horse. In some years he might even be a Derby contender. Not this year.

I agree, that was a s h i tbox field.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

That's exactly what I said at the beginning in saying Afleet Alex ran his worst race in the Rebel and now Old Fashioned has run his worst to date. Afleet Alex certainly beat better fields at 2, but Old Fashioned was never challenged and ran comparable figures. To say he's "distance challenged" at this point is pure speculation. He clearly hasn't been pushed at all with one work in a month, and ran second by 8 on class alone after chasing a fast pace.

i'll say it, i think hes distance challenged, judging from the style of the last two races. he runs rank and wants to be on the lead. afleet alex could relax and punch when the rider was ready. if anyone remembers his hopeful win, it was amazing. so was the preakness. this horse is in the "b" league compared to afleet alex, who probably deserved the triple crown if it were not for bad racing luck. and by the way people are defending him, he'll be over bet next out. bluntly, from what i've seen OF could not carry AA's jock strap.