First 2009 March Madness thread

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

Thursday update.
LOCKS
ACC: UNC, Duke, FSU, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: UCLA, Washington, Arizona St, Cal
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
Mountain West: Utah, BYU
A-10: Xavier, Dayton
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler, CLEVELAND STATE
WCC: GONZAGA

So that's 37 teams in 11 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 20 conferences with an autobid but no lock, that leaves 8 spots open.

Changes Today:
* Miami loses to VT, out of the running. NIT bound.
* Providence loses to Louisville, out of the running. NIT bound.
* Northwestern loses to Minnesota, out of the running. NIT bound.

ACC:
Maryland- As usual, they found a way to lose a game that they had to have, this time to UVA on Saturday. Now 7-9 in the ACC which means they have to win a few in the ACC Tournament to feel safe. OUT
Virginia Tech- 18-13 overall, 8-9 in the ACC, 2-8 against the RPI top 50, and 6-11 against the RPI top 100 after the Miami win. That's still a tough sell. OUT, but moving in the right direction.

Big East:

Big Ten:
Wisconsin- Keeping them here but barring a disastrous performance in the first round of the Big Ten tournament they should be fine, even with a loss. IN
Minnesota- Gets a victory over Northwestern in the first round. I think they are safe now. IN
Michigan- About to beat Iowa in the first round, they are IN. 6-9 against the top 50 and 10-11 against the top 100, even if the road record blows.
Penn State- Ugh. I was rooting for them to get back into the Tourney but you CANNOT lose to a team like Iowa at this point of the season. Beat Illinois 2X and split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan, is that enough with that horrific nonconference schedule?? Not right now... OUT

Big XII:
* Oklahoma State moves into LOCK status because everyone around them keeps collapsing, and they just feel like a tournament team, unlike a lot of these other bums. I don't know for certain if they can afford a loss to Iowa State in the first round but given the way things are right now around them they probably can and still get in. Texas A&M earned it the hard way with a clinching win against Mizzou.

Pac-10:
Arizona- Does a win at home against #105 Stanford get you in? No, but it certainly cures the blues temporarily. Got a tough matchup with Az State in the first round and might need to win that one. OUT, for now.

SEC:
South Carolina- No bad losses but no real good wins either. The 10-6 record in the SEC is extremely hollow, but it's still a precedent- no SEC team has ever missed the tournament with a 10-6 league record that I can ever remember. Should be IN barring a horrific loss to either Georgia or Mississippi State in the SEC quarters.
Florida- They move back into the picture because everyone else sucks. OUT for now but that Washington win is looking better and better. Must beat Arkansas and Auburn, and 24-10 would be tough to ignore.

Mountain West:
* Two of the three teams that were in the picture last Friday will make it and they will work it out in Vegas this week.
UNLV- had a chance to lock it up and in the process, knock out SDSU but didn't get it done. They get a second crack in the quarterfinals of the Mtn West tournament at home- the winner is IN, the loser is OUT.
New Mexico- 12-4 in a tough conference is tough to ignore but man have they flown under the radar. I think they are just IN at this point (as in, the last team in) based on tying for the league title, but shouldn't lose to Wyoming in the quarters or there will be a lot of sweating in Albequerque this week.

Missouri Valley:
Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN


Others:
There are one bid left under the assumption that the Mountain West has a knockout game, none of the ACC under .500 teams are worthy, and UF doesn't make a run in the SEC Tournament. Rhode Island took a loss they really couldn't afford on Saturday against UMass. Right now, I'd give the slot to St. Mary's, because I'm convinced they are worthy with a healthy Patty Mills and they have one shot more to prove he's healthy. Their resume is awfully thin, however, and are my last team in right now.

Friday update, with seed projections.
LOCKS
ACC: UNC, Duke, FSU, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: UCLA, Washington, Arizona St, Cal
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
Mountain West: Utah, BYU
A-10: Xavier, Dayton
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler, CLEVELAND STATE
WCC: GONZAGA

So that's 38 teams in 11 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 20 conferences with an autobid but no lock, that leaves 7 spots open.

Changes Today:
* Minnesota moves to lock status as even with a loss in their game right now to MSU they are very likely still in.
* UNLV falls off the board and SDSU replaces them.
* Rhode Island falls out of contention.

ACC:
Maryland- Struggled with NC State but got a win they HAD to have. Beat Wake today and I think they move to the right side. Lose and they're still OUT

Virginia Tech- 18-13 overall, 8-9 in the ACC, 2-8 against the RPI top 50, and 6-11 against the RPI top 100 after the Miami win. That's still a tough sell. OUT, but moving in the right direction. Needs to beat UNC (winning at the moment)

Big East:

Big Ten:
Wisconsin- Keeping them here but barring a disastrous performance against Ohio State today in the Big Ten tournament they should be fine. Their resume doesn't scream success, however. IN
Michigan- Beat Iowa in the first round, they are IN. 6-9 against the top 50 and 10-11 against the top 100, even if the road record blows.
Penn State- Beat Illinois 2X, MSU, and split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan, is that enough with that horrific nonconference schedule?? Not right now... but very close. Another win over Purdue would do it. OUT

Big XII:

Pac-10:
Arizona- Loses to rival ASU and probably keeps them OUT of the first time in 25 years.

SEC:
South Carolina- No bad losses but no real good wins either. The 10-6 record in the SEC is extremely hollow, but it's still a precedent- no SEC team has ever missed the tournament with a 10-6 league record that I can ever remember. Should be IN barring a horrific loss to either Georgia or Mississippi State in the SEC quarters.
Florida- They move back into the picture because everyone else sucks. That Washington win is looking better and better. Took care of Arkansas, next up Auburn, winner probably IN, loser OUT. The 24-10 record would be tough to ignore.
Auburn- Been trying to avoid putting them up here but they keep trying to prove me wrong. Still a ways to go but they also have the 10-6 SEC record and essentially a play-in game with Florida. OUT, for now.

Mountain West:
SDSU- Probably locks up a bid by sweeping 3 games from the Rebels to go with their otherwise OK resume. Beating BYU would be a bonus and assure their bid but I think they're in pretty good shape. IN

New Mexico- 12-4 in a tough conference is tough to ignore but man have they flown under the radar. I think they are just OUT at this point. There will be a lot of sweating in Albequerque this weekend.

Missouri Valley:
Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN


Others:
Rhode Island took a loss they really couldn't afford on Saturday against UMass and finished the job against Duqusne. Temple stays in the picture by routing St Joes. Right now, I'd give the slot to St. Mary's, because I'm convinced they are worthy with a healthy Patty Mills and they have one shot more to prove he's healthy. Their resume is awfully thin, however, and are my last team in right now.

Seeds
1: UNC*, Pitt, UConn, Louisville*
2: Memphis*, Michigan State*, Kansas, Duke
3: Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Villanova
4: Washington*, Missouri*, West Virginia, Xavier*
5: Purdue, UCLA, Gonzaga*, Florida State
6: LSU*, Clemson, Arizona State, Marquette
7: Illinois, Utah*, Tennessee, Butler
8: BYU, Texas, Oklahoma State, Cal
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, Boston College, Minnesota
10: Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan, Siena*
11: South Carolina, Creighton, SDSU, VCU*
12: St. Mary's, Cleveland St*, Western Kentucky*, Utah St*
13: Florida(Auburn), UNI*, American*, North Dakota St*
14: Buffalo/MAC*, SFA/Southland*, Binghamton/AE*, Radford*
15: Robert Morris*, Portland St*, Cornell*, East Tenn St*
16: Chattanooga*, Big West*, Morehead St*, SWAC*, MEAC*

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN

They are 5-5 against the top 94. Two wins each over #95 Evansville and #99 Bradley that I don't think the committee is going to treat as big wins. Giving them big points for 9-5 against the top 100 is like giving big credit to Niagara for 5-3 against the top 100 when two of their wins are over #97 Fairfield. When I look at Niagara and Creighton's resumes I'm not seeing much difference. Add to it that Niagara destroyed Illinois St in the bracket buster and then Illinois St destroyed Creighton in the MVC semis and I don't see how Creighton can be in and Niagara not even under consideration. Neither looks like an NCAA tourney team to me, even in a weak bubble.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

They are 5-5 against the top 94. Two wins each over #95 Evansville and #99 Bradley that I don't think the committee is going to treat as big wins. Giving them big points for 9-5 against the top 100 is like giving big credit to Niagara for 5-3 against the top 100 when two of their wins are over #97 Fairfield. When I look at Niagara and Creighton's resumes I'm not seeing much difference. Add to it that Niagara destroyed Illinois St in the bracket buster and then Illinois St destroyed Creighton in the MVC semis and I don't see how Creighton can be in and Niagara not even under consideration. Neither looks like an NCAA tourney team to me, even in a weak bubble.

i know, and it's a shame that Niagara that doesn't really show up on the radar even though their page isn't much different from some of the other teams that have had 8,9 chances at top teams are are 2-7 against the top 50. Here is exactly what the selection committee looks at on a team by team basis, I love this site.

http://www.bbstate.com/schools/CREI/sheet

[SniperSB23]

Thanks for the link, useful site.

Pretty funny that RPI #18 Oklahoma State and RPI #20 Siena faced each other in the Toilet Bowl (7th place game) of the Old Spice Classic.

[ateamstupid]

Bad loss for Wisconsin.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Bad loss for Wisconsin.

They'll still get in though.

South Carolina really doesn't want to go dancing. Hard to believe a 22-9 team that went 10-6 in the SEC could be left out.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

They'll still get in though.

South Carolina really doesn't want to go dancing. Hard to believe a 22-9 team that went 10-6 in the SEC could be left out.

I don't know. Nothing significant in the nonconference, 4-10 against the RPI 1-50. I realize not many teams are locking up bids, but I don't think they're in right now.

South Carolina sucks. They're not getting in, even if they win this game.

[ateamstupid]

Baylor does it again. Now the Bears, finally playing up to their potential, only need to beat an inconsistent Missouri or average Oklahoma State team to sneak into the Tournament.

UPDATED 9:21 EST: 6 bids left, probably 5

Xavier stole another at-large bid from a bubble team, losing to Temple 55-53 today in the A-10 semifinals.

Maryland, meanwhile, looks to be on the doorstep of an at-large bid after convincingly beating Wake Forest in the ACC quarterfinals tonight. The Terps, 7-9 conference record and all, probably need only to not get blown out by the Duke/BC winner to get a spot in the Dance.

With New Mexico, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Providence and South Carolina likely all playing themselves out of the Tournament the past two days, here are the remaining teams vying for those five precious at-larges:

Arizona, Penn State, Wisconsin, Florida, Auburn, San Diego State, Tulsa, Dayton, Creighton, Utah State, St. Mary's, Davidson, Kansas State, UNLV. The last three are extreme fringe candidates, but I think they deserve consideration at least.

[Crown@club]

Originally Posted by philcski

Friday update, with seed projections.
ACC:
Virginia Tech- 18-13 overall, 8-9 in the ACC, 2-8 against the RPI top 50, and 6-11 against the RPI top 100 after the Miami win. That's still a tough sell. OUT, but moving in the right direction. Needs to beat UNC (winning at the moment)

*

You can thank the refs for knocking Tech out. I guess Hansbrough has to knock the guy over to get called a foul these days.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

Friday update, with seed projections.
LOCKS
ACC: UNC, Duke, FSU, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: UCLA, Washington, Arizona St, Cal
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
Mountain West: Utah, BYU
A-10: Xavier, Dayton
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler, CLEVELAND STATE
WCC: GONZAGA

So that's 38 teams in 11 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 20 conferences with an autobid but no lock, that leaves 7 spots open.

Changes Today:
* Minnesota moves to lock status as even with a loss in their game right now to MSU they are very likely still in.
* UNLV falls off the board and SDSU replaces them.
* Rhode Island falls out of contention.

ACC:
Maryland- Struggled with NC State but got a win they HAD to have. Beat Wake today and I think they move to the right side. Lose and they're still OUT

Virginia Tech- 18-13 overall, 8-9 in the ACC, 2-8 against the RPI top 50, and 6-11 against the RPI top 100 after the Miami win. That's still a tough sell. OUT, but moving in the right direction. Needs to beat UNC (winning at the moment)

Big East:

Big Ten:
Wisconsin- Keeping them here but barring a disastrous performance against Ohio State today in the Big Ten tournament they should be fine. Their resume doesn't scream success, however. IN
Michigan- Beat Iowa in the first round, they are IN. 6-9 against the top 50 and 10-11 against the top 100, even if the road record blows.
Penn State- Beat Illinois 2X, MSU, and split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan, is that enough with that horrific nonconference schedule?? Not right now... but very close. Another win over Purdue would do it. OUT

Big XII:

Pac-10:
Arizona- Loses to rival ASU and probably keeps them OUT of the first time in 25 years.

SEC:
South Carolina- No bad losses but no real good wins either. The 10-6 record in the SEC is extremely hollow, but it's still a precedent- no SEC team has ever missed the tournament with a 10-6 league record that I can ever remember. Should be IN barring a horrific loss to either Georgia or Mississippi State in the SEC quarters.
Florida- They move back into the picture because everyone else sucks. That Washington win is looking better and better. Took care of Arkansas, next up Auburn, winner probably IN, loser OUT. The 24-10 record would be tough to ignore.
Auburn- Been trying to avoid putting them up here but they keep trying to prove me wrong. Still a ways to go but they also have the 10-6 SEC record and essentially a play-in game with Florida. OUT, for now.

Mountain West:
SDSU- Probably locks up a bid by sweeping 3 games from the Rebels to go with their otherwise OK resume. Beating BYU would be a bonus and assure their bid but I think they're in pretty good shape. IN

New Mexico- 12-4 in a tough conference is tough to ignore but man have they flown under the radar. I think they are just OUT at this point. There will be a lot of sweating in Albequerque this weekend.

Missouri Valley:
Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN


Others:
Rhode Island took a loss they really couldn't afford on Saturday against UMass and finished the job against Duqusne. Temple stays in the picture by routing St Joes. Right now, I'd give the slot to St. Mary's, because I'm convinced they are worthy with a healthy Patty Mills and they have one shot more to prove he's healthy. Their resume is awfully thin, however, and are my last team in right now.

Seeds
1: UNC*, Pitt, UConn, Louisville*
2: Memphis*, Michigan State*, Kansas, Duke
3: Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Villanova
4: Washington*, Missouri*, West Virginia, Xavier*
5: Purdue, UCLA, Gonzaga*, Florida State
6: LSU*, Clemson, Arizona State, Marquette
7: Illinois, Utah*, Tennessee, Butler
8: BYU, Texas, Oklahoma State, Cal
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, Boston College, Minnesota
10: Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan, Siena*
11: South Carolina, Creighton, SDSU, VCU*
12: St. Mary's, Cleveland St*, Western Kentucky*, Utah St*
13: Florida(Auburn), UNI*, American*, North Dakota St*
14: Buffalo/MAC*, SFA/Southland*, Binghamton/AE*, Radford*
15: Robert Morris*, Portland St*, Cornell*, East Tenn St*
16: Chattanooga*, Big West*, Morehead St*, SWAC*, MEAC*

Saturday Morning update, with seed projections.
LOCKS
ACC: UNC, Duke, FSU, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: UCLA, Washington, Arizona St, Cal
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
Mountain West: Utah, BYU
A-10: Xavier, Dayton, Temple/Duquesne
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler, CLEVELAND STATE
WCC: GONZAGA

So that's 39 teams in 11 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 20 conferences with an autobid but no lock, that leaves 6 spots open.

Changes Today:
* Maryland replaces South Carolina after stepping up and beating Wake while SC loses to Mississippi State.
* Florida falls off the board losing to Auburn.
* Virginia Tech falls off the board losing a heartbreaker to UNC.
* Bid in the A-10 gets stolen as Xavier and Dayton both go down in the semis.

ACC:
Maryland- Struggled with NC State but got a win they HAD to have. Beat Wake and I think they move to the right side. IN

Big East:

Big Ten:
Wisconsin- Keeping them here but barring a disastrous performance against Ohio State today in the Big Ten tournament they should be fine. Their resume doesn't scream success, however. IN
Michigan- Beat Iowa in the first round, they are IN. 6-9 against the top 50 and 10-11 against the top 100, even if the road record blows.
Penn State- Beat Illinois 2X, MSU, and split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan, is that enough with that horrific nonconference schedule?? Not right now... but very close. Another win over Purdue would do it. OUT

Big XII:

Pac-10:
Arizona- Loses to rival ASU and probably keeps them OUT of the first time in 25 years. Their resume is still pretty strong even with all the losses though, my last team out.

SEC:
South Carolina- took a loss they could not afford in the quarterfinals of the SEC. OUT

Auburn- Been trying to avoid putting them up here but they keep trying to prove me wrong. They have the 10-6 SEC record and won essentially a play-in game with Florida. OUT, for now, my 2nd last team out.

Mountain West:
SDSU- Probably locks up a bid by sweeping 3 games from the Rebels to go with their otherwise OK resume. Beating BYU would be a bonus and assure their bid but I think they're in pretty good shape. IN

New Mexico- 12-4 in a tough conference is tough to ignore but man have they flown under the radar. I think they are just OUT at this point. There will be a lot of sweating in Albequerque this weekend.

Missouri Valley:
Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN


Others:
Rhode Island took a loss they really couldn't afford on Saturday against UMass and finished the job against Duqusne. Temple stays in the picture by routing St Joes. Right now, I'd give the slot to St. Mary's, because I'm convinced they are worthy with a healthy Patty Mills and they have one shot more to prove he's healthy. Their resume is awfully thin, however, and are my last team in right now.

Seeds
1: UNC*, Pitt, UConn, Louisville*
2: Memphis*, Michigan State*, Kansas, Duke
3: Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Villanova
4: Washington*, Missouri*, West Virginia, Xavier
5: Purdue, UCLA, Gonzaga*, Florida State
6: LSU*, Clemson, Arizona State, Marquette
7: Illinois, Utah*, Tennessee, Butler
8: BYU, Texas, Oklahoma State, Cal
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, Boston College, Minnesota
10: Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan, Siena*
11: Maryland, Creighton, SDSU, VCU*
12: St. Mary's, Cleveland St*, Western Kentucky*, Utah St*
13: Temple/Duquesne*, UNI*, American*, North Dakota St*
14: Buffalo/MAC*, SFA/Southland*, Binghamton/AE*, Radford*
15: Robert Morris*, Portland St*, Cornell*, East Tenn St*
16: Chattanooga*, Big West*, Morehead St*, SWAC*, MEAC*

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

Saturday Morning update, with seed projections.
LOCKS
ACC: UNC, Duke, FSU, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: UCLA, Washington, Arizona St, Cal
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
Mountain West: Utah, BYU
A-10: Xavier, Dayton, Temple/Duquesne
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler, CLEVELAND STATE
WCC: GONZAGA

So that's 39 teams in 11 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 20 conferences with an autobid but no lock, that leaves 6 spots open.

Changes Today:
* Maryland replaces South Carolina after stepping up and beating Wake while SC loses to Mississippi State.
* Florida falls off the board losing to Auburn.
* Virginia Tech falls off the board losing a heartbreaker to UNC.
* Bid in the A-10 gets stolen as Xavier and Dayton both go down in the semis.

ACC:
Maryland- Struggled with NC State but got a win they HAD to have. Beat Wake and I think they move to the right side. IN

Big East:

Big Ten:
Wisconsin- Keeping them here but barring a disastrous performance against Ohio State today in the Big Ten tournament they should be fine. Their resume doesn't scream success, however. IN
Michigan- Beat Iowa in the first round, they are IN. 6-9 against the top 50 and 10-11 against the top 100, even if the road record blows.
Penn State- Beat Illinois 2X, MSU, and split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan, is that enough with that horrific nonconference schedule?? Not right now... but very close. Another win over Purdue would do it. OUT

Big XII:

Pac-10:
Arizona- Loses to rival ASU and probably keeps them OUT of the first time in 25 years. Their resume is still pretty strong even with all the losses though, my last team out.

SEC:
South Carolina- took a loss they could not afford in the quarterfinals of the SEC. OUT

Auburn- Been trying to avoid putting them up here but they keep trying to prove me wrong. They have the 10-6 SEC record and won essentially a play-in game with Florida. OUT, for now, my 2nd last team out.

Mountain West:
SDSU- Probably locks up a bid by sweeping 3 games from the Rebels to go with their otherwise OK resume. Beating BYU would be a bonus and assure their bid but I think they're in pretty good shape. IN

New Mexico- 12-4 in a tough conference is tough to ignore but man have they flown under the radar. I think they are just OUT at this point. There will be a lot of sweating in Albequerque this weekend.

Missouri Valley:
Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN


Others:
Rhode Island took a loss they really couldn't afford on Saturday against UMass and finished the job against Duqusne. Temple stays in the picture by routing St Joes. Right now, I'd give the slot to St. Mary's, because I'm convinced they are worthy with a healthy Patty Mills and they have one shot more to prove he's healthy. Their resume is awfully thin, however, and are my last team in right now.

Seeds
1: UNC*, Pitt, UConn, Louisville*
2: Memphis*, Michigan State*, Kansas, Duke
3: Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Villanova
4: Washington*, Missouri*, West Virginia, Xavier
5: Purdue, UCLA, Gonzaga*, Florida State
6: LSU*, Clemson, Arizona State, Marquette
7: Illinois, Utah*, Tennessee, Butler
8: BYU, Texas, Oklahoma State, Cal
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, Boston College, Minnesota
10: Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan, Siena*
11: Maryland, Creighton, SDSU, VCU*
12: St. Mary's, Cleveland St*, Western Kentucky*, Utah St*
13: Temple/Duquesne*, UNI*, American*, North Dakota St*
14: Buffalo/MAC*, SFA/Southland*, Binghamton/AE*, Radford*
15: Robert Morris*, Portland St*, Cornell*, East Tenn St*
16: Chattanooga*, Big West*, Morehead St*, SWAC*, MEAC*

Saturday Evening update, with seed projections.
LOCKS
ACC: Unc, Duke, Fsu, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, MISSOURI, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: Ucla, Washington, Arizona St, Cal, USC*
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
Mountain West: UTAH, Byu
A-10: Xavier, Dayton, TEMPLE
Conference USA: MEMPHIS
Horizon: Butler, CLEVELAND STATE
WCC: GONZAGA

So that's 40 teams in 11 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 20 conferences with an autobid but no lock, that leaves 5 spots open.

Changes Today:
* USC steals a bid from someone by upsetting the Pac-10 conference tournament after underperforming all year.
* Mississippi State moves into the championship game of the truly mediocre SEC. Win would kick SDSU out of the bracket.

ACC:
Maryland- Struggled with NC State but got a win they HAD to have. Beating Wake means I think they move to the right side. IN

Big East:

Big Ten:
Michigan- Beat Iowa in the first round, they are IN. 6-9 against the top 50 and 10-11 against the top 100, even if the road record blows.
Wisconsin- I think people are overrating their resume a bit to assume they are a lock, at just 4-10 against the top 50, and just 18-12 overall. I still think they get in, but their resume doesn't scream success, however. IN
Penn State- Beat Illinois 2X, MSU, and split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan, is that enough with that horrific nonconference schedule?? No... but very close. 4th last OUT

Big XII:

Pac-10:
Arizona- Loses to rival ASU and probably keeps them OUT of the first time in 25 years. Their resume is still pretty strong even with all the losses though, my 3rd last team out.

SEC:
South Carolina- took a loss they could not afford in the quarterfinals of the SEC. OUT

Auburn- Been trying to avoid putting them up here but they keep trying to prove me wrong. They have the 10-6 SEC record and won essentially a play-in game with Florida. Lost to Tennessee today which might have moved them to the right side of the bubble. OUT, for now, my 2nd last team out.

Mountain West:
SDSU- Probably locks up a bid by sweeping 3 games from the Rebels to go with their otherwise OK resume. Beating BYU means I think they're in pretty good shape, plus they played awfully well in defeat in the championship game. IN

New Mexico- 12-4 in a tough conference is tough to ignore but man have they flown under the radar. I think they are just OUT at this point. There will be a lot of sweating in Albequerque this weekend.

Missouri Valley:
Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN


Others:
USC winning the Pac-10 means someone had to go, and that someone was St. Mary's. If it comes down to St. Mary's vs. SDSU for the final spot, despite the head to head win, I think you have to go with SDSU. Their out of conference performance was pretty dreadful but their in-conference performance in a brutal league was excellent. I hope they both get in over one of the Big 10 teams but that's unlikely given the committee's previous record. If Mississippi State wins tomorrow they take SDSU's spot in the bracket.

Seeds
1: Louisville*, UNC, Pitt, UConn
2: Memphis*, Michigan State*, Kansas, Duke
3: Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Missouri*
4: Washington*, Villanova, West Virginia, Florida State*
5: Purdue, Arizona State, Gonzaga*, Xavier
6: Clemson, UCLA, Marquette, Utah*
7: LSU, Illinois, Tennessee*, Butler
8: BYU, Texas, Oklahoma State, Cal
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, Boston College, Ohio State
10: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Siena*
11: Maryland, Creighton, Utah St*, VCU*
12: USC*, Cleveland St*, Western Kentucky*, SDSU
13: Temple*, UNI*, American*, North Dakota St*
14: Akron*, SFA/Southland*, Binghamton*, Radford*
15: Robert Morris*, Portland St*, Cornell*, East Tenn St*
16: Chattanooga*, Big West*, Morehead St*, Alabama St*, Morgan State*

[Smooth Operator]

Well, we all know about SC's loooooooooooong history of excellence on the gridiron.


Good to see that Trojan BB team makin' some noise too.

[SniperSB23]

I think San Diego St is in now so I have two open spots. One will go to the SEC whether Miss St earns it or whether someone gets in as a farewell gift to the SEC commish who is in his final year as chairman of the selection committee. That leaves one bid for St Marys, Maryland, Penn St, and Arizona. Right now I'd rank them in that order but it is a very tough call.

[jwkniska]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I think San Diego St is in now so I have two open spots. One will go to the SEC whether Miss St earns it or whether someone gets in as a farewell gift to the SEC commish who is in his final year as chairman of the selection committee. That leaves one bid for St Marys, Maryland, Penn St, and Arizona. Right now I'd rank them in that order but it is a very tough call.

One thing in St Mary's favor is that most of their losses were when their best player was out of the lineup with a hand injury. He's back, so that should help their cause.

[SniperSB23]

Haven't checked for rematches but here's my projection:

1 North Carolina
2 Oklahoma
3 Villanova
4 Syracuse
5 Purdue
6 Clemson
7 Arizona St.
8 Brigham Young
9 Siena
10 Utah St.
11 Minnesota
12 Cleveland St.
13 Virginia Commonwealth
14 Portland St.
15 Robert Morris
16 Morehead St./Chattanooga

1 Pittsburgh
2 Duke
3 Missouri
4 UCLA
5 Gonzaga
6 Marquette
7 Ohio St.
8 Texas
9 Wisconsin
10 Dayton
11 San Diego St.
12 Mississippi St.
13 Northern Iowa
14 Binghamton
15 Cornell
16 Alabama St.

1 Louisville
2 Memphis
3 Washington
4 Florida St.
5 Illinois
6 Utah
7 Oklahoma St.
8 Louisiana St.
9 Texas A&M
10 Boston College
11 Michigan
12 Temple
13 North Dakota St.
14 Stephen F. Austin
15 East Tennessee St.
16 Radford


1 Connecticut
2 Michigan St.
3 Kansas
4 Wake Forest
5 Tennessee
6 West Virginia
7 Xavier
8 Butler
9 California
10 Southern California
11 St. Mary's
12 Western Kentucky
13 American
14 Akron
15 Morgan St.
16 Cal St. Northridge

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I think San Diego St is in now so I have two open spots. One will go to the SEC whether Miss St earns it or whether someone gets in as a farewell gift to the SEC commish who is in his final year as chairman of the selection committee. That leaves one bid for St Marys, Maryland, Penn St, and Arizona. Right now I'd rank them in that order but it is a very tough call.

Obviously the committee ranked them just the opposite with Arizona in...with a 12 seed they were obviously last in!!!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

Saturday Evening update, with seed projections.
LOCKS
ACC: Unc, Duke, Fsu, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, MISSOURI, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: Ucla, Washington, Arizona St, Cal, USC*
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
Mountain West: UTAH, Byu
A-10: Xavier, Dayton, TEMPLE
Conference USA: MEMPHIS
Horizon: Butler, CLEVELAND STATE
WCC: GONZAGA

So that's 40 teams in 11 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 20 conferences with an autobid but no lock, that leaves 5 spots open.

Changes Today:
* USC steals a bid from someone by upsetting the Pac-10 conference tournament after underperforming all year.
* Mississippi State moves into the championship game of the truly mediocre SEC. Win would kick SDSU out of the bracket.

ACC:
Maryland- Struggled with NC State but got a win they HAD to have. Beating Wake means I think they move to the right side. IN

Big East:

Big Ten:
Michigan- Beat Iowa in the first round, they are IN. 6-9 against the top 50 and 10-11 against the top 100, even if the road record blows.
Wisconsin- I think people are overrating their resume a bit to assume they are a lock, at just 4-10 against the top 50, and just 18-12 overall. I still think they get in, but their resume doesn't scream success, however. IN
Penn State- Beat Illinois 2X, MSU, and split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan, is that enough with that horrific nonconference schedule?? No... but very close. 4th last OUT

Big XII:

Pac-10:
Arizona- Loses to rival ASU and probably keeps them OUT of the first time in 25 years. Their resume is still pretty strong even with all the losses though, my 3rd last team out.

SEC:
South Carolina- took a loss they could not afford in the quarterfinals of the SEC. OUT

Auburn- Been trying to avoid putting them up here but they keep trying to prove me wrong. They have the 10-6 SEC record and won essentially a play-in game with Florida. Lost to Tennessee today which might have moved them to the right side of the bubble. OUT, for now, my 2nd last team out.

Mountain West:
SDSU- Probably locks up a bid by sweeping 3 games from the Rebels to go with their otherwise OK resume. Beating BYU means I think they're in pretty good shape, plus they played awfully well in defeat in the championship game. IN

New Mexico- 12-4 in a tough conference is tough to ignore but man have they flown under the radar. I think they are just OUT at this point. There will be a lot of sweating in Albequerque this weekend.

Missouri Valley:
Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN


Others:
USC winning the Pac-10 means someone had to go, and that someone was St. Mary's. If it comes down to St. Mary's vs. SDSU for the final spot, despite the head to head win, I think you have to go with SDSU. Their out of conference performance was pretty dreadful but their in-conference performance in a brutal league was excellent. I hope they both get in over one of the Big 10 teams but that's unlikely given the committee's previous record. If Mississippi State wins tomorrow they take SDSU's spot in the bracket.

Seeds
1: Louisville*, UNC, Pitt, UConn
2: Memphis*, Michigan State*, Kansas, Duke
3: Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Missouri*
4: Washington*, Villanova, West Virginia, Florida State*
5: Purdue, Arizona State, Gonzaga*, Xavier
6: Clemson, UCLA, Marquette, Utah*
7: LSU, Illinois, Tennessee*, Butler
8: BYU, Texas, Oklahoma State, Cal
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, Boston College, Ohio State
10: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Siena*
11: Maryland, Creighton, Utah St*, VCU*
12: USC*, Cleveland St*, Western Kentucky*, SDSU
13: Temple*, UNI*, American*, North Dakota St*
14: Akron*, SFA/Southland*, Binghamton*, Radford*
15: Robert Morris*, Portland St*, Cornell*, East Tenn St*
16: Chattanooga*, Big West*, Morehead St*, Alabama St*, Morgan State*

Sunday Afternoon update, with seed projections.
LOCKS
ACC: Unc, Duke, Fsu, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, MISSOURI, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: Ucla, Washington, Arizona St, Cal, USC*
SEC: LSU, Tennessee, MISSISSIPPI STATE
Mountain West: UTAH, Byu
A-10: Xavier, Dayton, TEMPLE
Conference USA: MEMPHIS
Horizon: Butler, CLEVELAND STATE
WCC: GONZAGA

So that's 41 teams in 11 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 20 conferences with an autobid but no lock, that leaves 4 spots open.

Changes Today:* Mississippi State wins the championship game of the truly mediocre SEC. Kicks SDSU out of the bracket. What a joke of an ending, both officiating wise and how horrible both teams played. The SEC sucks and it's a shame they took a bid away from a team that deserved it over them.

ACC:
Maryland- Struggled with NC State but got a win they HAD to have. Beating Wake means I think they move to the right side. IN

Big East:

Big Ten:
Michigan- Beat Iowa in the first round, they are IN. 6-9 against the top 50 and 10-11 against the top 100, even if the road record blows.
Wisconsin- I think people are overrating their resume a bit to assume they are a lock, at just 4-10 against the top 50, and just 18-12 overall. I still think they get in, but their resume doesn't scream success, however. IN
Penn State- Beat Illinois 2X, MSU, and split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan, is that enough with that horrific nonconference schedule?? No... but very close. 4th last OUT

Big XII:

Pac-10:
Arizona- Loses to rival ASU and probably keeps them OUT of the first time in 25 years. Their resume is still pretty strong even with all the losses though, my 3rd last team out.

SEC:
South Carolina- took a loss they could not afford in the quarterfinals of the SEC. OUT

Auburn- Been trying to avoid putting them up here but they keep trying to prove me wrong. They have the 10-6 SEC record and won essentially a play-in game with Florida. Lost to Tennessee today which might have moved them to the right side of the bubble. OUT, for now, my 2nd last team out.

Mountain West:
SDSU- Probably locks up a bid by sweeping 3 games from the Rebels to go with their otherwise OK resume. Beating BYU means I think they're in pretty good shape, plus they played awfully well in defeat in the championship game. With Mississippi State winning the SEC, OUT

New Mexico- 12-4 in a tough conference is tough to ignore but man have they flown under the radar. I think they are just OUT at this point. There will be a lot of sweating in Albequerque this weekend.

Missouri Valley:
Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN


Others:
USC winning the Pac-10 means someone had to go, and that someone was St. Mary's. If it comes down to St. Mary's vs. SDSU for the final spot, despite the head to head win, I think you have to go with SDSU. Their out of conference performance was pretty dreadful but their in-conference performance in a brutal league was excellent. I hope they both get in over one of the Big 10 teams but that's unlikely given the committee's previous record. If Mississippi State wins tomorrow they take SDSU's spot in the bracket.

Seeds
1: Louisville*, UNC, Pitt, UConn
2: Memphis*, Michigan State, Kansas, Duke*
3: Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Missouri*
4: Washington*, Villanova, West Virginia, Florida State
5: Purdue*, Arizona State, Gonzaga*, Xavier
6: Clemson, UCLA, Marquette, Utah*
7: LSU, Illinois, Tennessee*, Butler
8: Texas, Oklahoma State, Cal, Ohio State
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, Boston College, BYU
10: USC*, Michigan, Utah St*, Siena*
11: Maryland, Creighton, Wisconsin, VCU*
12: Minnesota, Cleveland St*, Western Kentucky*, Mississippi State*
13: Temple*, UNI*, American*, North Dakota St*
14: Akron*, SFA/Southland*, Binghamton*, Radford*
15: Robert Morris*, Portland St*, Cornell*, East Tenn St*
16: Chattanooga*, Big West*, Morehead St*, Alabama St*, Morgan State*

This is my opinion of what I think the committee will do, not what I would do. If I had my choices two of Minnesota, Maryland, and/or Wisconsin would be OUT in favor of St. Mary's and SDSU. Road/neutral record MUST be weighted more than what the committee allows for, because it's a huge predictor of tournament performance. A team like Arizona has beaten some good teams but when you only win 2 games (both against terrible opponents in Oregon and Oregon State) in true away games you shouldn't have a case. Wisconsin is just 18-12 and 4-10 against the top 50. They stay in because they are a solid 5-1 against the next 50 and a "reasonable" 6-9 R/N against a very difficult schedule.

Additionally, a lot has been made about the #1 seeds. Who cares, there are 5 teams in the running and clearly UConn/Memphis are 4/5 in that group, does it really matter in the end as long as they end up in the same region (which invariably, they will?) UConn stays on the top line for me because they are 8-3 against the top 50 and Memphis is 4-2, but I'd have no problem with them swapped. Both have only lost 1 game to anyone else not in the tournament, and both were to the same team- Georgetown.

For recordkeeping, the top 50 RPI teams left out: SDSU, UAB, St. Mary's, Illinois State, Niagara (all mid-majors, of course.)

[ateamstupid]

My final stab at the field..

AQs: Binghamton, Cornell, Mississippi State, American, USC, Louisville, Robert Morris, Portland State, Cal State Northridge, Missouri, Ohio State/Purdue, Cleveland State, Morehead State, East Tennessee State, Radford, Duke, Utah State, Utah, Northern Iowa, Tennesee-Chattanooga, Stephen F. Austin, Akron, Western Kentucky, Temple, North Dakota State, Morgan State, Gonzaga, VCU, Siena, Memphis, Alabama State

At-large bids: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Maryland, Washington, Arizona State, UCLA, California, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Marquette, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Ohio State/Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, LSU, Tennessee, Butler, Xavier, BYU, San Diego State, Dayton, Arizona

The last bid was a close decision between Arizona, Penn State, Wisconsin, St. Mary's and a few others, and the Wildcats' terrible road/neutral resume may end up hurting them. But I just think Arizona's wins over Gonzaga and Kansas and their much tougher schedule will get the 'Cats in over Penn State.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

My final stab at the field..

AQs: Binghamton, Cornell, Mississippi State, American, USC, Louisville, Robert Morris, Portland State, Cal State Northridge, Missouri, Ohio State/Purdue, Cleveland State, Morehead State, East Tennessee State, Radford, Duke, Utah State, Utah, Northern Iowa, Tennesee-Chattanooga, Stephen F. Austin, Akron, Western Kentucky, Temple, North Dakota State, Morgan State, Gonzaga, VCU, Siena, Memphis, Alabama State

At-large bids: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Maryland, Washington, Arizona State, UCLA, California, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Marquette, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Ohio State/Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, LSU, Tennessee, Butler, Xavier, BYU, San Diego State, Dayton, Arizona

The last bid was a close decision between Arizona, Penn State, Wisconsin, St. Mary's and a few others, and the Wildcats' terrible road/neutral resume may end up hurting them. But I just think Arizona's wins over Gonzaga and Kansas and their much tougher schedule will get the 'Cats in over Penn State.

Good stuff Joey!

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

My final stab at the field..

AQs: Binghamton, Cornell, Mississippi State, American, USC, Louisville, Robert Morris, Portland State, Cal State Northridge, Missouri, Ohio State/Purdue, Cleveland State, Morehead State, East Tennessee State, Radford, Duke, Utah State, Utah, Northern Iowa, Tennesee-Chattanooga, Stephen F. Austin, Akron, Western Kentucky, Temple, North Dakota State, Morgan State, Gonzaga, VCU, Siena, Memphis, Alabama State

At-large bids: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Maryland, Washington, Arizona State, UCLA, California, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Marquette, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Ohio State/Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, LSU, Tennessee, Butler, Xavier, BYU, San Diego State, Dayton, Arizona

The last bid was a close decision between Arizona, Penn State, Wisconsin, St. Mary's and a few others, and the Wildcats' terrible road/neutral resume may end up hurting them. But I just think Arizona's wins over Gonzaga and Kansas and their much tougher schedule will get the 'Cats in over Penn State.

Nailed.