First 2009 March Madness thread

Originally Posted by philcski

Big XII:
Oklahoma State- Very close to a lock with their RPI/SOS and solid wins, even if they lose to Oklahoma and flame in the first round of the Big XII Tournament they're probably still IN.
Texas A&M- 22 wins, no bad losses, a win over Mizzou would lock it up but I think a loss and a win or two in the Big XII tournament and they're still IN.

The obvious omission above is Texas.

Texas ATM had a bad loss at home against Tulsa.
Ok St. had kicked Tulsa around just a few games earlier.
ATM also had a bad lose to Baylor.

Im tellin you guys this is just not a good team.
If they lose to MIssouri, they are going to have
to do really well in the tourney to get in. 22-8 looks good
but the level of the majority of the teams they
beat early on were absolutely awful (Div II level bad).
Imo they will finish 8-8 in a very mediocre conf.

Ok St. is playing well at the right time.
Texas is playing bad at the wrong time but
because of early wins over Villanova and UCLA
and their Griffinless win over OU late will get in
unless they get blown out by Kansas, finshing 9-7
in conf. and get blown out 1st round in the tourney.
Even then they will probably get in.

Only conf. I watch consistently so I defer on the
less seen teams in other conferences.

[ateamstupid]

You may not think much of the conference, but Oklahoma State and Texas A&M have very clean resumes. You've yet to say why either team won't get in other than you don't like them. Each team only needs one more win to get in. And Texas is a lock, doesn't matter what happens at Kansas.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You may not think much of the conference, but Oklahoma State and Texas A&M have very clean resumes. You've yet to say why either team won't get in other than you don't like them. Each team only needs one more win to get in. And Texas is a lock, doesn't matter what happens at Kansas.

OK St. is in. They have played well at the right time of year.

Texas ATM is not yet.

Again...
Texas ATM played exceptionally weak teams early.
Had bad loses at home against Tulsa, and against Baylor.

Texas ATM will be praying that the minor conf. regular
season winners also win their conf. tourmnaments. We
could see many more "major conf bubble" teams out
if some of the other conf. send an "extra" team because
they win their conf. tournaments. ex. Wright state wins the Horizon.

If major conf tournaments yeild upsets this will further
dilute at large bids. ex- Georgetown winning the Big East.

Right now Texas ATM is playing great D against Mizz.
and giving them a spanking. They win this and they
have to be in. Lets see if thy can hold on.

[ateamstupid]

A&M is in. Oklahoma State isn't yet.

[Cannon Shell]

KY has to be done after losing to FL dont they?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

KY has to be done after losing to FL dont they?

They're done, and Maryland is probably finished now too after losing to Virginia today.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by pgardn

The obvious omission above is Texas.

Texas ATM had a bad loss at home against Tulsa.
Ok St. had kicked Tulsa around just a few games earlier.
ATM also had a bad lose to Baylor.

Im tellin you guys this is just not a good team.
If they lose to MIssouri, they are going to have
to do really well in the tourney to get in. 22-8 looks good
but the level of the majority of the teams they
beat early on were absolutely awful (Div II level bad).
Imo they will finish 8-8 in a very mediocre conf.

Ok St. is playing well at the right time.
Texas is playing bad at the wrong time but
because of early wins over Villanova and UCLA
and their Griffinless win over OU late will get in
unless they get blown out by Kansas, finshing 9-7
in conf. and get blown out 1st round in the tourney.
Even then they will probably get in.

Only conf. I watch consistently so I defer on the
less seen teams in other conferences.

Yup, Texas is in as a lock- thanks. I looked over the post 5 times trying to figure out who i knew i was missing and that was it. One less "bubble" spot. Will update shortly.

[ateamstupid]

We head into the meat of Championship Week with the bubble thinned down a bit thanks to this past week's attrition. It's no longer necessary (it never really was, it just helped aesthetically) to separate the bubble teams by conference. Some think that Boston College and Ohio State need a win in their respective conference tourneys to lock up bids, but with the failings of bubble teams left and right recently, I think those two are safely in.

LOCKS: DUKE, NORTH CAROLINA, WAKE FOREST, CLEMSON, FLORIDA STATE, BOSTON COLLEGE, WASHINGTON, ARIZONA STATE, UCLA, CALIFORNIA, CONNECTICUT, PITTSBURGH, LOUISVILLE, VILLANOVA, MARQUETTE, SYRACUSE, WEST VIRGINIA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA, TEXAS, TEXAS A&M, ILLINOIS, MICHIGAN STATE, PURDUE, OHIO STATE, LSU, TENNESSEE, UTAH, BYU, MEMPHIS, XAVIER, GONZAGA, BUTLER

For argument's sake, we'll assume that there will be no automatic qualifiers from outside of that bloc. Gonzaga and Butler, the only two that are currently playing in a conference tournament, are each in the championship game of their respective tournaments. Gonzaga plays St. Mary's tonight in the WCC title, while Butler hosts Cleveland State tomorrow in the Horizon.

The count of at-large bids locked up by these teams (with nary a surprise conference tourney champion) is 23.

That leaves 11 bids open for the following teams, in no particular order:

Maryland, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Arizona, Providence, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Minnesota, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, Florida, South Carolina, Auburn, New Mexico, UNLV, San Diego State, Tulsa, Dayton, Creighton, Utah State, St. Mary's, Davidson

Roughly half of those teams will get a bid to the Dance if there are no surprise conference tourney winners.

Now here's an idea of what teams need to do in their conference tournaments to secure bids. Obviously if St. Mary's wins tonight, the Gaels are in, trimming the bubble margin to 10 bids.

Teams that will likely be in with one conference tournament win: Arizona, Oklahoma State, Minnesota, Michigan
Teams that may be OK with one win, but need two to be locks: Providence, Wisconsin, Florida, South Carolina, Dayton, UNLV, New Mexico, Utah State
Teams that need two or more wins: Maryland, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Kansas State, Penn State, Auburn, San Diego State, Tulsa

Creighton and Davidson have already been eliminated from their conference tournaments, leaving their fates in the air. Both are shaky bubble candidates, we'll go over their cases later in the week, but needless to say, they want the rest of the bubble teams bounced early in their conference tournaments and the locks to go on and win.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

We head into the meat of Championship Week with the bubble thinned down a bit thanks to this past week's attrition. It's no longer necessary (it never really was, it just helped aesthetically) to separate the bubble teams by conference. Some think that Boston College and Ohio State need a win in their respective conference tourneys to lock up bids, but with the failings of bubble teams left and right recently, I think those two are safely in.

LOCKS: DUKE, NORTH CAROLINA, WAKE FOREST, CLEMSON, FLORIDA STATE, BOSTON COLLEGE, WASHINGTON, ARIZONA STATE, UCLA, CALIFORNIA, CONNECTICUT, PITTSBURGH, LOUISVILLE, VILLANOVA, MARQUETTE, SYRACUSE, WEST VIRGINIA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA, TEXAS, TEXAS A&M, ILLINOIS, MICHIGAN STATE, PURDUE, OHIO STATE, LSU, TENNESSEE, UTAH, BYU, MEMPHIS, XAVIER, GONZAGA, BUTLER

For argument's sake, we'll assume that there will be no automatic qualifiers from outside of that bloc. Gonzaga and Butler, the only two that are currently playing in a conference tournament, are each in the championship game of their respective tournaments. Gonzaga plays St. Mary's tonight in the WCC title, while Butler hosts Cleveland State tomorrow in the Horizon.

The count of at-large bids locked up by these teams (with nary a surprise conference tourney champion) is 23.

That leaves 11 bids open for the following teams, in no particular order:

Maryland, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Arizona, Providence, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Minnesota, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, Florida, South Carolina, Auburn, New Mexico, UNLV, San Diego State, Tulsa, Dayton, Creighton, Utah State, St. Mary's, Davidson

Roughly half of those teams will get a bid to the Dance if there are no surprise conference tourney winners.

Now here's an idea of what teams need to do in their conference tournaments to secure bids. Obviously if St. Mary's wins tonight, the Gaels are in, trimming the bubble margin to 10 bids.

Teams that will likely be in with one conference tournament win: Arizona, Oklahoma State, Minnesota, Michigan
Teams that may be OK with one win, but need two to be locks: Providence, Wisconsin, Florida, South Carolina, Dayton, UNLV, New Mexico, Utah State
Teams that need two or more wins: Maryland, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Kansas State, Penn State, Auburn, San Diego State, Tulsa

Creighton and Davidson have already been eliminated from their conference tournaments, leaving their fates in the air. Both are shaky bubble candidates, we'll go over their cases later in the week, but needless to say, they want the rest of the bubble teams bounced early in their conference tournaments and the locks to go on and win.

I have Oklahoma State and Dayton as locks (although I'd like to see both of them win a game in their respective tournaments, given their first round opponents), otherwise we agree. This is the worst bubble I've ever seen, however.

The number of bids changes if conf tourneys left yield unexpected results:

Unlikely examples:

ACC: Va Tech meets NC state in finals NC state wins
AT 10: Dayton meets St. Joes St. joes wins
Big East: Providence meets Notre Dame in finals ND wins
Big 10: Michigan meets Northwestern in finals Northwestern wins
Big 12: K State meets Iowa ST. Iowa St. wins
USA: Tulsa meets Houston Houston wins
Mountain: Utah meets SD st. SD st. wins
Pac 10: Arizona meets USC USC wins
SE: Auburn meets South Carolina Auburn wins

Anyone of the above or something similar creates an intriguing mess mainly because you would have bubble teams making the finals and possibly beating a good team along the way and then losing to a team that would probably not get in unless they win the tournament as shown in the examples above.
I think all of the scenarios above are possible although unlikely.
Obviously others scenarios can be created which would spawn chaos.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

We head into the meat of Championship Week with the bubble thinned down a bit thanks to this past week's attrition. It's no longer necessary (it never really was, it just helped aesthetically) to separate the bubble teams by conference. Some think that Boston College and Ohio State need a win in their respective conference tourneys to lock up bids, but with the failings of bubble teams left and right recently, I think those two are safely in.

LOCKS: DUKE, NORTH CAROLINA, WAKE FOREST, CLEMSON, FLORIDA STATE, BOSTON COLLEGE, WASHINGTON, ARIZONA STATE, UCLA, CALIFORNIA, CONNECTICUT, PITTSBURGH, LOUISVILLE, VILLANOVA, MARQUETTE, SYRACUSE, WEST VIRGINIA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA, TEXAS, TEXAS A&M, ILLINOIS, MICHIGAN STATE, PURDUE, OHIO STATE, LSU, TENNESSEE, UTAH, BYU, MEMPHIS, XAVIER, GONZAGA, BUTLER

For argument's sake, we'll assume that there will be no automatic qualifiers from outside of that bloc. Gonzaga and Butler, the only two that are currently playing in a conference tournament, are each in the championship game of their respective tournaments. Gonzaga plays St. Mary's tonight in the WCC title, while Butler hosts Cleveland State tomorrow in the Horizon.

The count of at-large bids locked up by these teams (with nary a surprise conference tourney champion) is 23.

That leaves 11 bids open for the following teams, in no particular order:

Maryland, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Arizona, Providence, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Minnesota, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, Florida, South Carolina, Auburn, New Mexico, UNLV, San Diego State, Tulsa, Dayton, Creighton, Utah State, St. Mary's, Davidson

Roughly half of those teams will get a bid to the Dance if there are no surprise conference tourney winners.

Now here's an idea of what teams need to do in their conference tournaments to secure bids. Obviously if St. Mary's wins tonight, the Gaels are in, trimming the bubble margin to 10 bids.

Teams that will likely be in with one conference tournament win: Arizona, Oklahoma State, Minnesota, Michigan
Teams that may be OK with one win, but need two to be locks: Providence, Wisconsin, Florida, South Carolina, Dayton, UNLV, New Mexico, Utah State
Teams that need two or more wins: Maryland, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Kansas State, Penn State, Auburn, San Diego State, Tulsa

Creighton and Davidson have already been eliminated from their conference tournaments, leaving their fates in the air. Both are shaky bubble candidates, we'll go over their cases later in the week, but needless to say, they want the rest of the bubble teams bounced early in their conference tournaments and the locks to go on and win.

joey - can st mary's get over the hump tonight, mills still out for them he is the best player in the conf , i hope they win and get in

[SniperSB23]

Dayton and South Carolina may have to sweat it out if they choke in their tournaments but for now I'm calling them locks. That makes 38 locks, 7 bids up for grabs. Currently I'd rank the remaining teams in this order:

Florida
St Marys
Minnesota
Michigan
Arizona
New Mexico
Penn St
--------------------------------
San Diego St
UAB
Providence
Temple
Creighton
UNLV
USC
Davidson
Auburn
Rhode Island

Beyond that I can't see anyone else getting in. Davidson and Creighton are on the wrong side of the bubble and can't improve themselves so are done. Anyone else off the bubble still has a shot to play themselves in. If Saint Mary's loses tonight that may push them onto the wrong side of the bubble. San Diego St - UNLV is a huge first round game in the MWC. Loser is dead, winner may need to knock off BYU in the semis to lock up a bid. New Mexico may need to knock off Utah to get a bid. If it winds up New Mexico against SDSt or UNLV in the finals they could get 4 bids, if it winds up Utah-BYU they might only get two.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Dayton and South Carolina may have to sweat it out if they choke in their tournaments but for now I'm calling them locks. That makes 38 locks, 7 bids up for grabs. Currently I'd rank the remaining teams in this order:

Florida
St Marys
Minnesota
Michigan
Arizona
New Mexico
Penn St
--------------------------------
San Diego St
UAB
Providence
Temple
Creighton
UNLV
USC
Davidson
Auburn
Rhode Island

Beyond that I can't see anyone else getting in. Davidson and Creighton are on the wrong side of the bubble and can't improve themselves so are done. Anyone else off the bubble still has a shot to play themselves in. If Saint Mary's loses tonight that may push them onto the wrong side of the bubble. San Diego St - UNLV is a huge first round game in the MWC. Loser is dead, winner may need to knock off BYU in the semis to lock up a bid. New Mexico may need to knock off Utah to get a bid. If it winds up New Mexico against SDSt or UNLV in the finals they could get 4 bids, if it winds up Utah-BYU they might only get two.

I think you've got Creighton too low. They're 9-5 against the top 100, co-champions of the #9 ranked league, and some solid OOC wins including over Mtn West co-champs (and bubble dweller) New Mexico.

Davidson is dead.

Florida is garbage. If they got in over say a Creighton it would truly be an injustice.

SDSU-UNLV is essentially a play-in game. Don't think the winner needs another, the loser is out.

Siena will be a very interesting case if they lose.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

I think you've got Creighton too low. They're 9-5 against the top 100, co-champions of the #9 ranked league, and some solid OOC wins including over Mtn West co-champs (and bubble dweller) New Mexico.

Davidson is dead.

Florida is garbage. If they got in over say a Creighton it would truly be an injustice.

SDSU-UNLV is essentially a play-in game. Don't think the winner needs another, the loser is out.

Siena will be a very interesting case if they lose.

Creighton couldn't afford to lose by 24. Both the teams that wound up in the finals of their league were blown out by MAAC teams in the bracket buster games which doesn't help their case as the #9 conference. They remind me a lot of Illinois St last year, were probably in until they got blown out in their championship. Or the 2006 Missouri St team that washed out in the first round of their conference tourney and missed the tournament with an RPI of 21:

http://kenpom.com/sked.php?&y=2008&team=Illinois%20St.
http://kenpom.com/sked.php?&y=2006&team=Missouri%20St.

I agree with you on Florida and were I picking the teams I'd toss out South Carolina as well. But I have a feeling the committee will put those teams in if they can just win one game in their conference tourney.

Once Siena went 0-3 in the Old Spice they couldn't afford more than one loss in conference. Once they lost that second conference game it pretty much killed them. The big knock on them is the lack of a top 50 win but that would change if they lost tonight to Niagara as they would move up to 46 or 47. They lost by 15 at Niagara and won by 17 against them on their home court. They get the championship game on their home court so really no excuses if they lose (like how UNLV has no excuse if they can't make their tourney finals on their home court). My main worry is that the Big East crew that came in for the semis last night allowed Egemonye to get away with assault with a deadly weapon (his elbows). Siena needs him to get in early foul trouble like he does every other game. If the refs let his elbows and pushing go all night it could be a tough game.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by philcski

I think you've got Creighton too low. They're 9-5 against the top 100, co-champions of the #9 ranked league, and some solid OOC wins including over Mtn West co-champs (and bubble dweller) New Mexico.

Davidson is dead.

Florida is garbage. If they got in over say a Creighton it would truly be an injustice.

SDSU-UNLV is essentially a play-in game. Don't think the winner needs another, the loser is out.

Siena will be a very interesting case if they lose.

Creighton also lost to Drake at home and Arkansas-Little Rock and Wichita State on the road, then barely beat Wichita State and lost by 24 to Illinois State. That's not an at-large resume. I think they're done.

Siena has no chance in my opinion, and I strongly disagree with Scott that South Carolina is anything close to a lock. 10-6 in the conference means very little when you're 0-3 against the two Tournament teams and are 1-5 against the RPI 1-50. What's their good win? At Kentucky by one? At Baylor by three? Narrow wins against two NIT teams? They also lost to College of Charleston at home. I think they need at least two wins to be safe.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by gales0678

joey - can st mary's get over the hump tonight, mills still out for them he is the best player in the conf , i hope they win and get in

It should be a great game. St. Mary's needs it more and should be riding high with Mills back, but Gonzaga's been playing really well since the loss to Memphis.

[gales0678]

didn't know he was back

haven't been watching