ny pick 4 today early + pic 3 payouts

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by mes5107

Say you have a $2 Win ticket on a 5/2 horse. The bet pays $7.00. If you take your bet out of the pool entirely, that horse will still pay $7.00. If you increase your win bet to $10, the horse will still pay $7.00 for every $2 wagered. Your $2 (or $10) bet is really insignificant in the win pool.

Now, lets put that $2 into a pick 4 pool. Say the pool is $10,000 after takeout, and you have the lone winning ticket. Your ticket is worth $10,000 (excluding taxes). If one other person has the winning combination, your win drops to $5,000. 4 winning tickets is $2500 and so on. One extra ticket or one fewer ticket really change things.

The times when these win parlays are more $ than the pick 3 or pick 4 bets are just due to a few more people having the winning combination than there should be. In the win pool, the $2 payout is such a small percentage of the pool. The pick 3, 4, or 6 pools pay out a large percentage of the pool to a small number of people. In statistics, it's called variance.

mes i hear you - so if we take yesterda'ys 5th and before the race goes off we can see the p4 payouts , we notice that the payout with the #2 is less than the payout with the #3 , yet if we look on the boad the #3 is 4/1 and the #2 is 17/1 , shouldn't that discrepency right away alert us that the #2 is very live here because the payout appears to be short in realtion to the win odds? sohuldn't the public have saw this and hammered the #2 to win at 17/1?

[mes5107]

Again, only a few dollars worth of tickets are going to change that number a lot. Maybe somebody has a phone number that ends in 4-2-1-2 and they always bet it, and then 3 other people figure to throw that 2 in as a bomb in case the first three races hit. I would pay more attention to double pools or exactas if you're looking to gain some tote board information. What you're suggesting is that somebody knew something and bet a $4 pick 4 instead of a $1 pick 4. I don't think that's the case. There were only like $14 worth of winning tickets.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by mes5107

Again, only a few dollars worth of tickets are going to change that number a lot. Maybe somebody has a phone number that ends in 4-2-1-2 and they always bet it, and then 3 other people figure to throw that 2 in as a bomb in case the first three races hit. I would pay more attention to double pools or exactas if you're looking to gain some tote board information. What you're suggesting is that somebody knew something and bet a $4 pick 4 instead of a $1 pick 4. I don't think that's the case. There were only like $14 worth of winning tickets.

thx , i will watch thhe DD boards more closley