2/28-3/1 (GP): FOY (Gr. II); Canadian (Gr. III); Davona Dale (Gr. II)

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Thanks Bigs

I wonder where he'll show up next. I thought for sure that he'd outrun his odds in teh HB and certainly did so IMO.

I think they are taking the weenie route and going straight to the Florida Derby. Let's keep conditioning these horses to run every 5 to 8 weeks and then if they win the Derby bring them back in two and act surprised when they breakdown.

[SniperSB23]

Am I alone in thinking that This Ones for Phil can regress here, not like the distance, and still win easily? With the previous trainer he ran just as well at a mile and beyond as he did in sprints. His 6 furlong work suggests we aren't looking at a horse that was sapped from the big effort last out. He has plenty of experiencing going wide so shouldn't be hindered by the 12 post. I honestly don't know how the odds are going to play out in this one but I could easily see this horse slipping through at 5-1 or higher.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Am I alone in thinking that This Ones for Phil can regress here, not like the distance, and still win easily? With the previous trainer he ran just as well at a mile and beyond as he did in sprints. His 6 furlong work suggests we aren't looking at a horse that was sapped from the big effort last out. He has plenty of experiencing going wide so shouldn't be hindered by the 12 post. I honestly don't know how the odds are going to play out in this one but I could easily see this horse slipping through at 5-1 or higher.

I doubt it. I can't see him higher than 7/2. Who's going to take significantly more money? Maybe Notonthesamepage ends up a slight favorite, but bettors won't let TOFP get away again. He's the horse to beat of course, but this is a murderous field, so I can't take anyone at less than 4-1.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I doubt it. I can't see him higher than 7/2. Who's going to take significantly more money? Maybe Notonthesamepage ends up a slight favorite, but bettors won't let TOFP get away again.

I think Capt Candyman Can will be bet down to 5/2 or 2/1 or Beethoveen winds up around 6-1.

While a bloodhorse survey is far from an accurate gauge of betting interest I still found this one interesting:

Bee Cee Cee 1% (18 votes)

Theregoesjojo 10% (136 votes)

Notonthesamepage 10% (124 votes)

Take the Points 3% (33 votes)

Jack Spratt 3% (37 votes)

Rocketing Returns <1% (6 votes)

Beethoven 15% (196 votes)

Break Water Edison 5% (69 votes)

Capt. Candyman Can 32% (417 votes)

Taqarub 9% (118 votes)

Quality Road 3% (43 votes)

This Ones for Phil 8% (100 votes)

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I think Capt Candyman Can will be bet down to 5/2 or 2/1 or Beethoveen winds up around 6-1.

I'd be both stunned and aroused if this happened re: Candyman.

I'll buy you a beer at the Wood if TOFP is higher than 7/2. Low-risk proposition for me.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I'd be both stunned and aroused if this happened re: Candyman.

I'll buy you a beer at the Wood if TOFP is higher than 7/2. Low-risk proposition for me.

Sounds good to me. You don't think the bounce theorists will be throwing their money around against him?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Sounds good to me. You don't think the bounce theorists will be throwing their money around against him?

They might, but like you said, he could regress and still win. I think that'll temper the enthusiasm to bet against him.

[Bobby Fischer]

Canadian -
Pete Anderson trying to psyche out the competition:
"If he wins, great, but to me this is like a mile workout for Dubai, and it will also give me an insight into his propensity to run on grass later in the year. But watch and see, this will be a screwed-up race because except for one horse, Hey Byrn, there isn't any speed in the field."

Bujagali , and Buddy's Humor with their outside posts may have to be used early here as well.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I doubt it. I can't see him higher than 7/2. Who's going to take significantly more money? Maybe Notonthesamepage ends up a slight favorite, but bettors won't let TOFP get away again. He's the horse to beat of course, but this is a murderous field, so I can't take anyone at less than 4-1.

You're right. This race is better than almost all of the BC races last year. I honestly can't remember a Graded Stakes race as interesting as this one in quite some time.