Derby AE List

[Travis Stone]

Churchill has motivation in an AE list... for every non-starter below 20 equates to $x in handle (this number I've heard, but really can't remember it well enough to post, but it's significant). But there are some logistical obstacles, including the post draw and placement of a drawn-in AE horse.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Churchill has motivation in an AE list... for every non-starter below 20 equates to $x in handle (this number I've heard, but really can't remember it well enough to post, but it's significant). But there are some logistical obstacles, including the post draw and placement of a drawn-in AE horse.

As well as the fact that many Oaks and Derby goers will be totally confused by an AE list.

How many people bet Big Truck last year thinking they were betting on Big Brown? Go back and look. Big Truck's odds were much lower than they should have been.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by justindew

How many people bet Big Truck last year thinking they were betting on Big Brown? Go back and look. Big Truck's odds were much lower than they should have been.

Ever since Giacomo - it seems like almost all of the longshots go off at much shorter prices than they should be in triple crown races.

That's why I want a 24 horse field in the Derby!

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by justindew

As well as the fact that many Oaks and Derby goers will be totally confused by an AE list.

How many people bet Big Truck last year thinking they were betting on Big Brown? Go back and look. Big Truck's odds were much lower than they should have been.

and this is a bad think becaaaauuuse....?

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Danzig

and this is a bad think becaaaauuuse....?

Because confused people bet less, if it all. And when they do bet, the tie up betting windows.

I'm sure this line of thinking is at least partly to blame for the fact that we still only have 24 options in the Future Wager, and why dime superfectas aren't offered on Derby day (unless they are now. They didn't used to be.)

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by justindew

Because confused people bet less, if it all. And when they do bet, the tie up betting windows.

I'm sure this line of thinking is at least partly to blame for the fact that we still only have 24 options in the Future Wager, and why dime superfectas aren't offered on Derby day (unless they are now. They didn't used to be.)

i don't think they bet less. i think a lot of folks who only go on derby day will bet-they just might not pick the right horse, like what you mentioned with big truck. either that or there were a lot of guys who like trucks, so they bet him.
but they do tie up windows.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i don't think they bet less. i think a lot of folks who only go on derby day will bet-they just might not pick the right horse, like what you mentioned with big truck. either that or there were a lot of guys who like trucks, so they bet him.
but they do tie up windows.

I just imagine a scenario where people who don't follow Derby news that closely try to bet on the #24 in the Oaks-Derby Double only to find out that #24 isn't in the field, but the #22 is, even though they are both on the AE list.

CD has a history, in my opinion, of taking bettor intelligence into consideration. For example, The Matrix.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by justindew

I just imagine a scenario where people who don't follow Derby news that closely try to bet on the #24 in the Oaks-Derby Double only to find out that #24 isn't in the field, but the #22 is, even though they are both on the AE list.

CD has a history, in my opinion, of taking bettor intelligence into consideration. For example, The Matrix.

i would think most casual bettors would bet by the horses name, not the #. regardless, i don't see churchill changing any of it anyway.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by justindew

I just imagine a scenario where people who don't follow Derby news that closely try to bet on the #24 in the Oaks-Derby Double only to find out that #24 isn't in the field, but the #22 is, even though they are both on the AE list.

CD has a history, in my opinion, of taking bettor intelligence into consideration. For example, The Matrix.

I would imagine that people who dont follow Derby news that close dont bet the Oaks/Derby double. Have Scratchtime at 1 pm on Friday. Dont open oaks/Derby double betting till then

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by justindew

CD has a history, in my opinion, of taking bettor intelligence into consideration. For example, The Matrix.

The matrix and over/under show clearly that the bettors are far smarter than CDI management. Who the hell thought these things could work? The matrix is far more complicated than AE's for the Derby. Complicated and stupid

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by justindew

Because confused people bet less, if it all. And when they do bet, the tie up betting windows.

I'm sure this line of thinking is at least partly to blame for the fact that we still only have 24 options in the Future Wager, and why dime superfectas aren't offered on Derby day (unless they are now. They didn't used to be.)

Like the drunk people dont? Who said confused people bet less. Never heard of PG 1985?

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Like the drunk people dont? Who said confused people bet less. Never heard of PG 1985?

So why do you think CD hasn't implemented an AE list? Laziness? Are they just trying to piss people off? Has it just never occurred to them?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by justindew

As well as the fact that many Oaks and Derby goers will be totally confused by an AE list.

How many people bet Big Truck last year thinking they were betting on Big Brown? Go back and look. Big Truck's odds were much lower than they should have been.

This is total bs. If they cant figure out the ae system then they arent expecting to win anyway. The same theory kept "exotic" wagers out of the game for years and CA kept the $5 min for exactas long after it shouldnt have. The players arent as dumb as track execs think. Track execs ARE as dumb as players think they are