Gotham Stakes

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

True Quality is a 4YO. Mr. Fantasy and Dunkirk are brilliant?

I do agree, though, that right now there are way more promising 3YOs than last year. It isn't even close. Even if some of these turn out to be distance challenged there is definitely some prospective talent out there.

None of them, however, are named Pioneer of the Nile.

Totally agree. Mr. Fantasy hasn't proven much yet. He cantered through two state bred races but we won't know brillance until he gets confronted and goes eye to eye with someone. He'll get the distance, we just don't know what kind of heart he has yet. But this is a fun group that will get more interesting as we go forward.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Handicappy

Totally agree. Mr. Fantasy hasn't proven much yet. He cantered through two state bred races but we won't know brillance until he gets confronted and goes eye to eye with someone. He'll get the distance, we just don't know what kind of heart he has yet. But this is a fun group that will get more interesting as we go forward.

That's what brilliance is, being very fast without ever being truly tested. Mr. Fantasy may or may not fit that description, but suggesting that he has to get "looked in the eye" to be brilliant makes no sense.

Originally Posted by Handicappy

Look at Big Brown last year. His breeding never indicated he would be able to go the distance he went.

Not true at all.

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

That's what brilliance is, being very fast without ever being truly tested. Mr. Fantasy may or may not fit that description, but suggesting that he has to get "looked in the eye" to be brilliant makes no sense.



Not true at all.

Maybe we have two very different notions of brilliance for a race horse. I think brilliance in a horse is breeding, maturity and performance. Sometimes a brilliant horse can out perform his/her breeding. Which I contend Big B did last year. But without maturity and the experience gained from being battle tested, a horses' capacity for brilliance can be quite limited. He has had a couple brilliant performances given the ease in which he has accomplished his two wins but to be a brilliant horse is another thing.
Now understand, I would like nothing better than to just agree with you. I have been so impressed with the horse since he's been training at Belmont. Kiaran and his assistant here at Belmont are very high on him. But I won't put him into the brilliant category until I can see how he performs against the kind of company he will face in the Gotham. He's got to contend with other speed in the race and will battle with some closers in the stretch.
Mig came off him last time and said that he definately didn't need the lead which I think will be critical for him as he moves forward. Whether he does or not we will eventually see. He is extremely mature for a horse with so little experience.
I better stop or I'll convince myself that your are right. I have to control my being a fan of the horse to handicap and bet his races.

[blackthroatedwind]

Alan Garcia thinks Taqarub can rate this weekend at Gulfstream. I tend to agree with him....he will rate....and run last. No disrespect, but I want to see speed types rate in a competitive horserace before I believe they can do it. Most of the time, they can't.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Alan Garcia thinks Taqarub can rate this weekend at Gulfstream. I tend to agree with him....he will rate....and run last. No disrespect, but I want to see speed types rate in a competitive horserace before I believe they can do it. Most of the time, they can't.

So, if the trainer gets Taqarub out there for a gate work in the morning with 3 of the fastest horses in his barn. And, has an exercise rider that can actually hold him. And Taqarub RATES. And you're out there watching it, you wouldn't believe it?

How about if Garcia were to shoot up some 'roids before the ride?

[Danzig]

it's not whether the rider can hold him, it's whether the horse is willing to do as he's told. no rider will fight a horse and win the battle-either the horse will relax, or he'll fight himself into exhaustion-which won't win him the race.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Danzig

it's not whether the rider can hold him, it's whether the horse is willing to do as he's told. no rider will fight a horse and win the battle-either the horse will relax, or he'll fight himself into exhaustion-which won't win him the race.

Rene Douglas thinks you're full of crap.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28075

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by Danzig

it's not whether the rider can hold him, it's whether the horse is willing to do as he's told. no rider will fight a horse and win the battle-either the horse will relax, or he'll fight himself into exhaustion-which won't win him the race.

As an example of that, look at Mig's ride on Brilliant Son last Saturday in the stake. Mig, mistakenly (and for no apparent reason) tried to move him into a position he wasn't used to and he fought him. And, for that matter, look at the trainer/jock attempting to get Barcola out of his game in the same race. Both lost all chance at winning. Maturity continues to be the buzz word for me regarding this. Andy is correct regarding most speed horses not being able to rate in a race. I do think Mr. Fantasy is special precisely because he is a very intelligent/mature horse with only two ny bred races under his belt. I can't wait to get to the track!
It is exciting to go to the track to see a race that really will tell us something about the derby potential of many of these top three year olds. And with the weather in the 50's/without rain it will be a fair playing field for all.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

So, if the trainer gets Taqarub out there for a gate work in the morning with 3 of the fastest horses in his barn. And, has an exercise rider that can actually hold him. And Taqarub RATES. And you're out there watching it, you wouldn't believe it?

How about if Garcia were to shoot up some 'roids before the ride?

Rating in workouts and rating in races are completely different scenerios. I have had VERY good exercise riders tell me their speedballs rated very comfortably in the morning......and then watched them fail miserably in the afternoon.

[the_fat_man]

Hmmmm

Maybe, then, it's not the horses that are failing.

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Alan Garcia thinks Taqarub can rate this weekend at Gulfstream. I tend to agree with him....he will rate....and run last. No disrespect, but I want to see speed types rate in a competitive horserace before I believe they can do it. Most of the time, they can't.

Well you had that one nailed regarding Taqarub.