2/16 (OP): Southwest S. (Gr. III)

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

I think we do know he is the favorite as he closed that way in the future pool. As for being a legit Derby favorite, it's all speculative until they run the race. You obviously aren't in love with him but I havent caught where you have pointed the correct choice out. After the FOY, maybe there will be a more deserving favorite, but until then, I have to think OF is the obvious pick.

It also doesn't hurt that LJ has said he believes OF is the best horse he has ever trained after having Hard Spun, Eight Belles and Proud Spell the past few years and FF this year. Guy seems to know his stock pretty well....

I don't think the poster was talking about the future wager.

And as for what Jones says, that's nice, but sometimes trainers get it wrong or exaggerate, and that's why I prefer to judge on what I see. Didn't Bob Baffert say Indian Blessing's brother was the best horse he's ever had or something? Sometimes they're just BS'ing, sometimes they're wrong.

Old Fashioned might turn out to be awesome, but it's super early to call him the deserving Derby favorite (if you're not talking about the future wager) with two more months of preps to run. Why do I need to "point the correct choice out" 2 1/2 months from the race?

[hailrazer]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Why do I need to "point the correct choice out" 2 1/2 months from the race?

So I can drop my savings ($47) on him in the next futures pool and give you props for your keen foresight! I suppose you still get a golf clap if OF doesn't win, which he most likely won't, but it seems silly to me to say he isn't a deserving favorite at this point and giiving the unknown winner of a race that hasn't been run yet as a more likely candidate.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

So I can drop my savings ($47) on him in the next futures pool and give you props for your keen foresight! I suppose you still get a golf clap if OF doesn't win, which he most likely won't, but it seems silly to me to say he isn't a deserving favorite at this point and giiving the unknown winner of a race that hasn't been run yet as a more likely candidate.

Sorry, I just don't understand the rush to name a Derby winner/favorite in February. Future wagers are essentially shots in the dark, so I'm not really interested in who's at what price. I don't want a golf clap if OF doesn't win, I'm just venting on what I think is a weird reflex to name a Derby winner/favorite this early.

[hailrazer]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Sorry, I just don't understand the rush to name a Derby winner/favorite in February. Future wagers are essentially shots in the dark, so I'm not really interested in who's at what price. I don't want a golf clap if OF doesn't win, I'm just venting on what I think is a weird reflex to name a Derby winner/favorite this early.

Understood. But this site is called derbytrail. I'm surprised there aren't 150 threads spouting the merits of different contenders, even at this early date. As a matter of fact, I think I'll start one now.

[Linny]

The Afleet Alex tangent begun with the question of a colt winning a G1 sprint and nearly winning the 10f KY Derby. Did Alex win a G1 sprint? I know he won a sprint early at 3 (Mountain Valley?) but it was ungraded. Did he win the Hopeful or something?
I think that Hard Spun's excellent TC campaign followed up with a G1 sprint win (later followed by two good routes against major horses) is better than Alex's 3yo campaign, though Alex did have to stop after the Belmont.
More Than Ready was nowhere near as versatile as Hard Spun though he did surprise me with his Derby.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Linny

The Afleet Alex tangent begun with the question of a colt winning a G1 sprint and nearly winning the 10f KY Derby. Did Alex win a G1 sprint? I know he won a sprint early at 3 (Mountain Valley?) but it was ungraded. Did he win the Hopeful or something?
I think that Hard Spun's excellent TC campaign followed up with a G1 sprint win (later followed by two good routes against major horses) is better than Alex's 3yo campaign, though Alex did have to stop after the Belmont.
More Than Ready was nowhere near as versatile as Hard Spun though he did surprise me with his Derby.

He won the 7F Hopeful which was a Grade 1.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He won the 7F Hopeful which was a Grade 1.

Thank you. I wasn't sure off the top of my head. I was probably there but I just don't recall the race.
I still think that winning a G1 AFTER the TC campaign is a bigger deal.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

Understood. But this site is called derbytrail. I'm surprised there aren't 150 threads spouting the merits of different contenders, even at this early date. As a matter of fact, I think I'll start one now.

There isn't enough room here.....ya know, with all the birthday threads clogging the site.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There isn't enough room here.....ya know, with all the birthday threads clogging the site.

You say that now, but wait till it's your birthday.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There isn't enough room here.....ya know, with all the birthday threads clogging the site.

Originally Posted by Kasept

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There isn't enough room here.....ya know, with all the birthday threads clogging the site.

oh, that's not true. there'll never be as many HB'day threads as we had casion drive threads!

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Danzig

oh, that's not true. there'll never be as many HB'day threads as we had casion drive threads!

Did someone say Casino Drive???????