Andy Beyer, Dutrow, DRF

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by jwkniska

Wolfson was caught with a positive at AP a couple years ago on million preview day and had to give back the purse $$ and said he'd never ship another horse to IL.

That would be wrong. The ruling was overturned on the trace levels of Class 4 medications isoxsuprine (blood flow promotion) and naproxen (equine aspirin) for which Can't Beat It tested. And additionally, Illinois changed their threshold rules to be in line with the rest of the country's racing jurisdictions.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Kasept

That would be wrong. The ruling was overturned on the trace levels of Class 4 medications isoxsuprine (blood flow promotion) and naproxen (equine aspirin) for which Can't Beat It tested. And additionally, Illinois changed their threshold rules to be in line with the rest of the country's racing jurisdictions.

Very true statement. Wolfson had a fit when this went down and 'vowed to never return to the State'. I think this year he ran a horse in a stakes at Arlington and their was an article about him returning.....

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Here's a sampling of some of the major recent Wolfson form reversals involving both his horses and himself.

* Here's the form of It's a Birds back when Todd Pletcher trained him. He ran away with last weekends $1 million Sunshine Million Classic for Wolfson.



As you can see ... the horse was pretty much non-competitive in small field allowance races and minor stakes. Pletcher tried him on all three different forms of surfaces and wasn't getting much from him.


* Here's the form of Ikigai, Rockerfeller, and Misque's Approval.

Ikigai dominated a Graded Stake at GP two Saturday's ago running a 113 Beyer. As you can see - he was a faint-hearted maiden for Pletcher. He was actually entered in a maiden claiming turf sprint the first time Wolfson got him.

Rockerfeller was a complete and utter bum with a 1-for-15 lifetime record before Wolfson got him. He consistantly ran Beyers in the 70's and had no talent at all. He was off the board in back-to-back N1X alw races at FG before being transformed into one of the nations best sprinters.

the old guy Miesque's Approval had been off the board in back to back claiming races for Bill Mott before being transfered to Wolfson. Just two starts - and less than 3 months later - he took the Sunshine Million Turf at 49/1. Two races after that he upset Artie Schiller in the Makers Mark. He capped the year with a lopsided blowout win in the Breeders Cup Mile.




It seems alarming that Wolfson is all of a sudden turning your typical maidens, claimers, and allowance horses into elite stake horses ... but what is far more troubling to me is the dramatic form reversal that Wolfson has made with his trainer profile and trainer stats.

From a decade long span between 1996 through 2005 - Wolfson has year in and year out been very consistant. His win % was between 15-to-23% - and his yearly ROI had never once risen as high as $1.80 in any of those 10 years.

Basically, the guy was just your solid 20% trainer who placed horses in spots they could win - but who's horses typically were overbet.

From '96 to '05 he was 374-for-1,869 (20% wins) $1.54 ROI.

Now, the same consistant guy who shows a 23% loss on the betting dollar over an entire decade - and never once raises his ROI as high as $1.80 for 10 straight years does the following....

2006: 44-for-168 (26% wins) $2.89 ROI
2007: 52-for-191 (27% wins) $2.15 ROI
2008: 62-for-204 (30% wins) $1.98 ROI
2009: 4-for-23 (17% wins) $2.69 ROI

From '06 to '09 he is 162-for-586 (27% wins) $2.32 ROI

A solid seven percent spike in win percentage and an otherwordly $0.78 spike in ROI!!

You ought not be a genius to see that something happened precisely between 2005 and 2006 that shifted Marty Wolfson from a solid dependable trainer into an absolute super trainer who's stable yields huge win percentages and spectacular profits from a betting standpoint.

He's obviously one of the trainers out there who has a real edge right now. Is it something illegal? Who knows. Is it something detectable? .. who knows. It would be extremely irresponsible to pretend that he doesn't.

[King Glorious]

As I said before, one of the things I'll always regret is that I never got a chance to see what Wolfson could have turned Cigar and Theatrical into after getting them out of Mott's incapable hands.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

As I said before, one of the things I'll always regret is that I never got a chance to see what Wolfson could have turned Cigar and Theatrical into after getting them out of Mott's incapable hands.

But no regret that Cigar's first trainer (Alex Hassinger) couldn't get Cigar to do more than hit the board in a Gr. III at Bay Meadows? What's that? Forgot that Mott authored the greatest move up ever of Cigar off Hassinger? And no regret about Cigar ending up sterile though? A healthy, strapping horse like Cigar ends up sterile? Imagine that... Strange reaction to 'hay, oats and water'.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Kasept

But no regret that Cigar's first trainer (Alex Hassinger) couldn't get Cigar to do more than hit the board in a Gr. III at Bay Meadows? What's that? Forgot that Mott authored the greatest move up ever of Cigar off Hassinger? And no regret about Cigar ending up sterile though? A healthy, strapping horse like Cigar ends up sterile? Imagine that... Strange reaction to 'hay, oats and water'.

you know one doesn't necessarily have anything to do with the other. plenty of big, strapping guys out there who shoot blanks.
BUT, we all have heard that certain things used in horses leads to sterility, sooo who knows? but there are a lot of big performing horses who did just fine in the shed....

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Danzig

you know one doesn't necessarily have anything to do with the other. plenty of big, strapping guys out there who shoot blanks.
BUT, we all have heard that certain things used in horses leads to sterility, sooo who knows? but there are a lot of big performing horses who did just fine in the shed....

Steroids have been in wide use for years and years in racing, and there was nothing remotely wrong with them being used on Cigar. Bill Mott moved Cigar up BIG TIME off Alex Hassinger, but that has been conveniently ignored in the dew-eyed frenzy of homage.

[golfer]

Looking at It's A Bird's TG sheet, the corresponding races for Pletcher, mostly on turf and synth, were three 5's, a 6, and a 7. His one race at Bay Meadows, his only dirt try, was a 9.

With Wolfson, all on Florida dirt, he has run 4, 3, three 1's, and a 2, not including Saturday's performance. All this improvement was accomplished at age 5.

I have no problem with Wolfson's coming on Steve's show yesterday and defending himself, needless to say. It was his "blanket" defense of everyone else that I found questionable. Not to mention, he's the first person I have ever heard defend Scott Lake.

The attitude that Beyer's column is bad for the game, and therefore should not have been written, is something I completely disagree with. This pervasive attitude of when something happens, deal with it quietly and then sweep it under the rug, is the absolute reason we are having this discussion NOW.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by Kasept

But no regret that Cigar's first trainer (Alex Hassinger) couldn't get Cigar to do more than hit the board in a Gr. III at Bay Meadows? What's that? Forgot that Mott authored the greatest move up ever of Cigar off Hassinger? And no regret about Cigar ending up sterile though? A healthy, strapping horse like Cigar ends up sterile? Imagine that... Strange reaction to 'hay, oats and water'.

Turf to dirt

That was from chasing Siphon

[TheSpyder]

I'm starting my tennis season in two weeks. Is anyone friends with Mary Wolfson or Dutrow? I've got to improve to really take the next step.

I'm planning on going to the dentist next week and looking to put 50 lbs. on my a**.

Seriously though, looking at Drugs PP's, it would be interesting to see all Wolfson's horses PP's.

Spyder

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Kasept

But no regret that Cigar's first trainer (Alex Hassinger) couldn't get Cigar to do more than hit the board in a Gr. III at Bay Meadows? What's that? Forgot that Mott authored the greatest move up ever of Cigar off Hassinger? And no regret about Cigar ending up sterile though? A healthy, strapping horse like Cigar ends up sterile? Imagine that... Strange reaction to 'hay, oats and water'.

Actually Mott did not move the horse up off of Hassinger originally as his first 4 races for Mott were actually far worse than his previous form had been for Hassinger. It wasn't until he ran the horse on dirt that he became Cigar. The sterility issue is very hard to blame specifically on Mott just as Lure or Saarlands issues are hard to place on Shug. I dont have skills like Drugs to post the pp's but he is probably not a classic example.

[Cannon Shell]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIXV-mHds5w

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Actually Mott did not move the horse up off of Hassinger originally as his first 4 races for Mott were actually far worse than his previous form had been for Hassinger. It wasn't until he ran the horse on dirt that he became Cigar. The sterility issue is very hard to blame specifically on Mott just as Lure or Saarlands issues are hard to place on Shug. I dont have skills like Drugs to post the pp's but he is probably not a classic example.

chuck wasn't cigar bred for the grass and that was why they kept putting him on the 'sod

who decide to try him on the dirt , did paulson ask mott to maybe try the dirt?

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Kasept

But no regret that Cigar's first trainer (Alex Hassinger) couldn't get Cigar to do more than hit the board in a Gr. III at Bay Meadows? What's that? Forgot that Mott authored the greatest move up ever of Cigar off Hassinger? And no regret about Cigar ending up sterile though? A healthy, strapping horse like Cigar ends up sterile? Imagine that... Strange reaction to 'hay, oats and water'.

In recent years, we've seen high profile horses like Lure, A P Valentine, Saarland, Songster, and George Washington have fertility problems, and Lost in the Fog died of cancer. Are we implying, by logical extenstion, that Shug, Zito, Albertrani, O'Brien and Gilchrist aren't "hay, oats, and water" either?

[Linny]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

In recent years, we've seen high profile horses like Lure, A P Valentine, Saarland, Songster, and George Washington have fertility problems, and Lost in the Fog died of cancer. Are we implying, by logical extenstion, that Shug, Zito, Albertrani, O'Brien and Gilchrist aren't "hay, oats, and water" either?

Precisionist was sterile or nearly so. If these stallions are sterile then why are others trained by the same men (especially O'Brien, those Coolmore horses breed like rabbits) showing similar problems. If a trainer was send horse after horse into the shed and they were proving sterile, I can understand looking for connections but none of those leading trainers has shown a trend, that I know of.

I'm not sure what the infertility rate of the breed is, and I'm not sure it could be determined. Since a significant percentage of males are gelded and I'm sure that some "unknowns" are retired, bred, prove sterile and return to the races with no fanfare. When the horse is Georg Washington or Cigar, it's a headline. When it's a non entity, he just shows up in the entries and no one is the wiser.

[parsixfarms]

A couple of thoughts on Grening's article:

1. Dutrow claims that training for a prolonged period of time over the Calder surface tends to screw a horse up. If that's the case, then what Wolfson is doing is even more remarkable.

2. Sallusto is correct in saying that "not all trainers are created equal." However, the PPs above in this thread, as well as the work Dutrow did with horses like Saint Liam and Silver Train (amid countless others), each of whom were with pretty respectable horsemen before they went into his barn, force one to reach either one of two conclusions: (a) Dutrow, Wolfson and the like are either 10-15 lengths better than any other trainer on the backstretch; or (b) they have some "edge" that no one else does, which causes their horses to run that much better than everyone else's.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

In recent years, we've seen high profile horses like Lure, A P Valentine, Saarland, Songster, and George Washington have fertility problems, and Lost in the Fog died of cancer. Are we implying, by logical extenstion, that Shug, Zito, Albertrani, O'Brien and Gilchrist aren't "hay, oats, and water" either?

Impossible to tell about the specific horses mentioned. Certainly a strong likelihood for the North American based ones though... Are you saying you think that list of North American trainers above weren't using steroids while they were legal? Or continue to use other legal pertinent performance maximization products? Because they did and do.

The funny and impossible thing about this discussion is that it is all based on perception of who people want to believe are 'good' or bad' guys when specific names come up based on 'public' information which CANNOT POSSIBLY TELL THE WHOLE STORY. There are a number of guys that I 'know' are probably taking advantages and their names haven't come up in any of these conversations. Those names don't come up because of the public's desire to believe said or certain individuals are good trainers and good guys. Here's a bulletin... Some are and some aren't. Some of them cheat as much or more as the guys that have made themselves poster boys by their own practices.

Everyone's minds are largely made up on this subject and there is little apparently anyone is going to say or present as evidence to change either side's mind.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Kasept

But no regret that Cigar's first trainer (Alex Hassinger) couldn't get Cigar to do more than hit the board in a Gr. III at Bay Meadows? What's that? Forgot that Mott authored the greatest move up ever of Cigar off Hassinger? And no regret about Cigar ending up sterile though? A healthy, strapping horse like Cigar ends up sterile? Imagine that... Strange reaction to 'hay, oats and water'.

Obviously, the biggest "transformation" with Cigar was that he wanted to run on dirt. He showed that early in his career, but his connections were very stubborn or very stupid.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Obviously, the biggest "transformation" with Cigar was that he wanted to run on dirt. He showed that early in his career, but his connections were very stubborn or very stupid.

Exactly CJ... which is part of my point. Generally, since few know the details of what went on with horses before they moved, it's impossible to know why or how they responded better in the care of others. We can analyze PP's till the cows come home, but won't know what was going on to unlock potential or restore lustre in specific horses.

[Danzig]

this thread had not yet seen the light of day (so to speak) when i went to bed last night.
but i had read on drf where dutrow had gotten his panties in a wad over beyers article, and expected something would show here soon. i find it amusing that a guy with his track record regarding positives, overages, etc, would be soooo hurt and insulted that someone dared question any of his amazing results. why do you think it might be, mr. dutrow, that anyone would raise an eyebrow when one of your horses runs a lifetime best? i'm sure it's absolutely because the horse gained 50 pounds and had a dental appointment. sounds perfectly plausible to me.