Thoughts on Dunkirk's first race this year?

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I salivate waiting for the opportunity to bet against him. I mean, it won't be as great an opportunity as betting against Nicanor, but it will still be good.

can i ask why?

is it b/c you think the horse is gonna be drastically overbet
or
that the horse has no talent


-bt-

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by -BT-

can i ask why?

is it b/c you think the horse is gonna be drastically overbet
or
that the horse has no talent


-bt-

probably a bit of both...it's not as tho the horse has NO talent, but that the expectations are greater than warranted. someone mentioned nicanor above-he'll go off at very short odds first time out due to his sibling, not because he deserves the money being pushed his way.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by -BT-

can i ask why?

is it b/c you think the horse is gonna be drastically overbet
or
that the horse has no talent


-bt-

Not to speak for Andy, but both.

1. He beat what appears to have been a dreadful bunch.

2. He immediately appears to be the type that people fall over themselves to get behind.

He'll make Bandini look like Dr. Fager.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Obviously the only thing anyone should be talking about regarding the MSW race Dunkirk came out of is the extreme fast pace.

I had the pace 25 points faster than the final time - so a 102-77 if you want to use the Beyer #.

In those rare extreme races like that - you obviously want to upgrade the performances by the horses who showed speed on the killer pace - and you want them either cutting back or coming back at 7f in a paceless race.

You certainly want to run away from horses like Dunkirk - who was basically staggering home - but opening up big because everyone else was stopping badly.

Pletcher is historically much better 2nd time than 1st with debuters at GP ... but Dunkirk's performance was extremely unimpressive and worse than looked.

If anyone wants to go gaga over a debuter on that card - go look at Indy's Sonata's debut win!!

While 3/5ths slower than Dunkirk's - keep the following in mind

* She is a filly, he is a colt

* She is trained by Mike Matz - who had lost 77 consecutive dirt races with FTS prior to her win. He is trained by Pletcher - who may not always fully crank them for a debut - but he has them ready.

* She had a trip - broke inward and hit the gate - rushed up from last to first in a blink of an eye. He had a pace meltdown in front of him.

Also - look at Golden Sonata's pedigree. She is by A. P. Indy, the sports best stamina sire. Her dam broke her maiden at 12 furlongs in Europe - and once won a Graded Stake in North America by closing from more than 20 lengths out of it after a half mile. She has an ultimate endurance pedigree.

I haven't been that impressed with a horse who ran a Beyer in the 60's in a very long time. Too bad the field she beat sucked - and she couldn't have caught a loaded field to camofluage her for next time out.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Obviously the only thing anyone should be talking about regarding the MSW race Dunkirk came out of is the extreme fast pace.

I had the pace 25 points faster than the final time - so a 102-77 if you want to use the Beyer #.

In those rare extreme races like that - you obviously want to upgrade the performances by the horses who showed speed on the killer pace - and you want them either cutting back or coming back at 7f in a paceless race.

You certainly want to run away from horses like Dunkirk - who was basically staggering home - but opening up big because everyone else was stopping badly.

Pletcher is historically much better 2nd time than 1st with debuters at GP ... but Dunkirk's performance was extremely unimpressive and worse than looked.

If anyone wants to go gaga over a debuter on that card - go look at Indy's Sonata's debut win!!

While 3/5ths slower than Dunkirk's - keep the following in mind

* She is a filly, he is a colt

* She is trained by Mike Matz - who had lost 77 consecutive dirt races with FTS prior to her win. He is trained by Pletcher - who may not always fully crank them for a debut - but he has them ready.

* She had a trip - broke inward and hit the gate - rushed up from last to first in a blink of an eye. He had a pace meltdown in front of him.

Also - look at Golden Sonata's pedigree. She is by A. P. Indy, the sports best stamina sire. Her dam broke her maiden at 12 furlongs in Europe - and once won a Graded Stake in North America by closing from more than 20 lengths out of it after a half mile. She has an ultimate endurance pedigree.

I haven't been that impressed with a horse who ran a Beyer in the 60's in a very long time. Too bad the field she beat sucked - and she couldn't have caught a loaded field to camofluage her for next time out.

Let's just keep it simple and look at the splits for the two horses

the filly:

23.48 23.07 25.63 13.49

the colt:

22.93 22.95 26.57 12.55

If one were to ground his analysis on TIME, as you surely are, then one would 'notice' that the filly basically walked early and SHE was the one 'staggering' late. So while the fact that she dropped the other pacesetters appears impressive, it was the off the pacers in her race that got the worst of it.

And, while the colt ran a very slow 3rd split, he accelerated (projected) the last 1/8th. While the pacesetters in his race got the worst of it, there were others in a similar position to his that could've picked it up late. BUT, they were 'wiped out' as well.

Not saying I want him back but I certainly wouldn't get too excited about her.

[NTamm1215]

Dunkirk is in on Thursday at Gulfstream.

8th (4:42)

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Allowance | Purse: $42,000

Post # Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med.
1 More Than Willing Desormeaux K J 122 L
2 Warrior's Reward Borel C H 122 FTL
3 Jet Set Vinny Trujillo E 120 L
4 They're Late Bravo J 120 L
5 Alma d'Oro Prado E S 122 L
6 American Dance Lezcano J 120 L
7 Sincero Leparoux J R 120 L
8 Dunkirk Gomez G K 120 L
9 Stately Character Garcia Alan 120 L
10 Saint Reade McAleney J S 120 L


Gomez coming east for the mount.

NT

[Linny]

That looks like a decent race. Alma d'Oro was a nice winner thought the horse he beat (Dubinsky) didn't impress next out. Warrior's Reward won the "Nicanor" race from further back than any horse on the dirt that day, not that he closed from far back, but... That might have been Dubinsky's next.
More Than Willing looked good but McPeek's 3yo's have hit a wall. American Dance is a 1/2 to St Liam and could improve with time.
Nice race.

Doesn't seem like it's worth the risk to fly east for that. Afterall these planes are dropping like flies.

[Bobby Fischer]

Dunkirk was lugging in a little bit even with the left hand whip, actually looked better to me on the replay tonight than I remember from the 24th. For a $3.7 yearling he was not at all impressive in the paddock. No negative signs that i noticed, he just wasn't a bo jackson oozing with athletic talent. Amazing how being much the best in the stretch can make you look a little bigger and more talented. Will be fun to watch this race. At 9 furlongs he could be even better and draw off from these.

Stately Character is kind of fun horse for me. I remember going into the HolyBull that he had improved or maintained position(order) at every call. Don't see any reason for him to improve much, maybe he is a single for 4th in the super

[Linny]

Originally Posted by Kasept

He'll make Bandini look like Dr. Fager.

Steve this is the funniest thing I ever read here. I can't agree more!!

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Not to speak for Andy, but both.

1. He beat what appears to have been a dreadful bunch.

2. He immediately appears to be the type that people fall over themselves to get behind.

He'll make Bandini look like Dr. Fager.

or Ravel