Thoughts on Dunkirk's first race this year?

[blackthroatedwind]

I salivate waiting for the opportunity to bet against him. I mean, it won't be as great an opportunity as betting against Nicanor, but it will still be good.

[NTamm1215]

Now in the starting gate for the Andy Serling Derby:

1. Dunkirk
2. Nicanor
3. Taqarub

NT

[eajinabi]

DENVER and DUNKIRK have identical workout patterns. DENVER ran late in the closing stages of that MSW on Saturday. Should benefit going long.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by eajinabi

DENVER and DUNKIRK have identical workout patterns. DENVER ran late in the closing stages of that MSW on Saturday. Should benefit going long.

Yeah, you gotta love horses that clunk up in fast paced sprints, with mediocre final times, when they stretch out.

I assume when either of these horses wins a turf race later in the year, or next year, you will be bringing back this thread to show us all how brilliant you are.

[eajinabi]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Yeah, you gotta love horses that clunk up in fast paced sprints, with mediocre final times, when they stretch out.

I assume when either of these horses wins a turf race later in the year, or next year, you will be bringing back this thread to show us all how brilliant you are.

Its a matter of my observation. If DENVER does win a stakes race on Turf/Dirt later this year, I will bring it up. If he doesnt then I am wrong about him. What does it matter to you???

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by eajinabi

Its a matter of my observation. If DENVER does win a stakes race on Turf/Dirt later this year, I will bring it up. What does it matter to you???

Because you never freaking said he was going to win a stakes, so why on earth would you deem it necessary to fellate yourself if he does?

[eajinabi]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Because you never freaking said he was going to win a stakes, so why on earth would you deem it necessary to fellate yourself if he does?

Oh Brother. We will take a wait and see approach.

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I salivate waiting for the opportunity to bet against him. I mean, it won't be as great an opportunity as betting against Nicanor, but it will still be good.

can i ask why?

is it b/c you think the horse is gonna be drastically overbet
or
that the horse has no talent


-bt-

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by -BT-

can i ask why?

is it b/c you think the horse is gonna be drastically overbet
or
that the horse has no talent


-bt-

probably a bit of both...it's not as tho the horse has NO talent, but that the expectations are greater than warranted. someone mentioned nicanor above-he'll go off at very short odds first time out due to his sibling, not because he deserves the money being pushed his way.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by -BT-

can i ask why?

is it b/c you think the horse is gonna be drastically overbet
or
that the horse has no talent


-bt-

Not to speak for Andy, but both.

1. He beat what appears to have been a dreadful bunch.

2. He immediately appears to be the type that people fall over themselves to get behind.

He'll make Bandini look like Dr. Fager.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Obviously the only thing anyone should be talking about regarding the MSW race Dunkirk came out of is the extreme fast pace.

I had the pace 25 points faster than the final time - so a 102-77 if you want to use the Beyer #.

In those rare extreme races like that - you obviously want to upgrade the performances by the horses who showed speed on the killer pace - and you want them either cutting back or coming back at 7f in a paceless race.

You certainly want to run away from horses like Dunkirk - who was basically staggering home - but opening up big because everyone else was stopping badly.

Pletcher is historically much better 2nd time than 1st with debuters at GP ... but Dunkirk's performance was extremely unimpressive and worse than looked.

If anyone wants to go gaga over a debuter on that card - go look at Indy's Sonata's debut win!!

While 3/5ths slower than Dunkirk's - keep the following in mind

* She is a filly, he is a colt

* She is trained by Mike Matz - who had lost 77 consecutive dirt races with FTS prior to her win. He is trained by Pletcher - who may not always fully crank them for a debut - but he has them ready.

* She had a trip - broke inward and hit the gate - rushed up from last to first in a blink of an eye. He had a pace meltdown in front of him.

Also - look at Golden Sonata's pedigree. She is by A. P. Indy, the sports best stamina sire. Her dam broke her maiden at 12 furlongs in Europe - and once won a Graded Stake in North America by closing from more than 20 lengths out of it after a half mile. She has an ultimate endurance pedigree.

I haven't been that impressed with a horse who ran a Beyer in the 60's in a very long time. Too bad the field she beat sucked - and she couldn't have caught a loaded field to camofluage her for next time out.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Obviously the only thing anyone should be talking about regarding the MSW race Dunkirk came out of is the extreme fast pace.

I had the pace 25 points faster than the final time - so a 102-77 if you want to use the Beyer #.

In those rare extreme races like that - you obviously want to upgrade the performances by the horses who showed speed on the killer pace - and you want them either cutting back or coming back at 7f in a paceless race.

You certainly want to run away from horses like Dunkirk - who was basically staggering home - but opening up big because everyone else was stopping badly.

Pletcher is historically much better 2nd time than 1st with debuters at GP ... but Dunkirk's performance was extremely unimpressive and worse than looked.

If anyone wants to go gaga over a debuter on that card - go look at Indy's Sonata's debut win!!

While 3/5ths slower than Dunkirk's - keep the following in mind

* She is a filly, he is a colt

* She is trained by Mike Matz - who had lost 77 consecutive dirt races with FTS prior to her win. He is trained by Pletcher - who may not always fully crank them for a debut - but he has them ready.

* She had a trip - broke inward and hit the gate - rushed up from last to first in a blink of an eye. He had a pace meltdown in front of him.

Also - look at Golden Sonata's pedigree. She is by A. P. Indy, the sports best stamina sire. Her dam broke her maiden at 12 furlongs in Europe - and once won a Graded Stake in North America by closing from more than 20 lengths out of it after a half mile. She has an ultimate endurance pedigree.

I haven't been that impressed with a horse who ran a Beyer in the 60's in a very long time. Too bad the field she beat sucked - and she couldn't have caught a loaded field to camofluage her for next time out.

Let's just keep it simple and look at the splits for the two horses

the filly:

23.48 23.07 25.63 13.49

the colt:

22.93 22.95 26.57 12.55

If one were to ground his analysis on TIME, as you surely are, then one would 'notice' that the filly basically walked early and SHE was the one 'staggering' late. So while the fact that she dropped the other pacesetters appears impressive, it was the off the pacers in her race that got the worst of it.

And, while the colt ran a very slow 3rd split, he accelerated (projected) the last 1/8th. While the pacesetters in his race got the worst of it, there were others in a similar position to his that could've picked it up late. BUT, they were 'wiped out' as well.

Not saying I want him back but I certainly wouldn't get too excited about her.

[NTamm1215]

Dunkirk is in on Thursday at Gulfstream.

8th (4:42)

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Allowance | Purse: $42,000

Post # Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med.
1 More Than Willing Desormeaux K J 122 L
2 Warrior's Reward Borel C H 122 FTL
3 Jet Set Vinny Trujillo E 120 L
4 They're Late Bravo J 120 L
5 Alma d'Oro Prado E S 122 L
6 American Dance Lezcano J 120 L
7 Sincero Leparoux J R 120 L
8 Dunkirk Gomez G K 120 L
9 Stately Character Garcia Alan 120 L
10 Saint Reade McAleney J S 120 L


Gomez coming east for the mount.

NT

[Linny]

That looks like a decent race. Alma d'Oro was a nice winner thought the horse he beat (Dubinsky) didn't impress next out. Warrior's Reward won the "Nicanor" race from further back than any horse on the dirt that day, not that he closed from far back, but... That might have been Dubinsky's next.
More Than Willing looked good but McPeek's 3yo's have hit a wall. American Dance is a 1/2 to St Liam and could improve with time.
Nice race.

Doesn't seem like it's worth the risk to fly east for that. Afterall these planes are dropping like flies.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by Kasept

He'll make Bandini look like Dr. Fager.

Steve this is the funniest thing I ever read here. I can't agree more!!

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Not to speak for Andy, but both.

1. He beat what appears to have been a dreadful bunch.

2. He immediately appears to be the type that people fall over themselves to get behind.

He'll make Bandini look like Dr. Fager.

or Ravel

[dagulla]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I salivate waiting for the opportunity to bet against him. I mean, it won't be as great an opportunity as betting against Nicanor, but it will still be good.

Ok, I understand betting against a horse that is too short a price, a horse that you think just can't win and the public money is wrong. I do not understand how one can possibly "Salivate" waiting to bet against this horse. I think that is a bit premature at this point. You have no clue where he shows up next, if he runs in a allowance race vs a weak group, Would you then play against him ? I realize the Beyer was low, and he will more then likely be overbet, but it all has to depend on where he show's up and who he is facing. The horse did not blow me away, I thought it was a weak group, but I dont think I would bet against him in a 1x going 1 1/8 next time out.