This One's for Phil goes nuts...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

As suggested, I was speculating on the differentials... That makes sense on Kelly Leek on the surface switch... but aren't those really significant jump ups on all the top finishers? How often do you get that many horses all moving forward to that extent in one race? And even if you subscribe to the theory that Dutrow, Wolfson, Machowsky and Lake are ALL taking an edge, it doesn't seem possible that they all just happen to be jamming them in this one event?

I don't know anything about Machowsky, but his horse may not have really improved as I pointed out, but Dutrow, Wolfson and Lake all have pristine records and I have never seen one instance of any of them improving a horse at all.....much less substantially overnight.

You're right.....the fig is wrong.

[freddymo]

Steve as the voice racing can we get Dutrow on to explain what he was able to do to the horse to run so fast.. Maybe the horse had a simple problem like a bad cold and just needed some antiboitics and some good ole fashion TLC... Bring Richard on and let him share his good training procedures with us all.. Then maybe Mr Wolfson can come on followed by Scotty Lake... We can name the segment "House"

[cmorioles]

Just so we can be clear, here are the Beyers earned by the top 4 in the race, including Saturday, most recent first (Brown-Dirt, Green-Turf, Blue-Synthetic):

This One's for Phil: 117, 76, 75, 66, 79, 71, 81, 33, 43
You Lucky Mann: 112, 93, 107, 79, 79, 84
Kelly Leak: 98,84, 83, 57, 82, 73
Ju Jitsu Jax: 97, 86, 60, 67

Here are the figures if you build in the adjustment Beyer recommends for maturity, about 1.5 points per month:

This One's for Phil: 117, 80, 80, 72, 86, 79, 90, 45, 54
You Lucky Mann: 112, 95, 112, 86, 87, 93
Kelly Leak: 98,86, 86, 64, 90, 84
Ju Jitsu Jax: 97, 90, 66, 75

Then, there is the turf and synthetics come back slower, so we can adjust a few of those to the same scale as dirt:

This One's for Phil: 117, 80, 80, 72, 86, 79, 90, 45, 54
You Lucky Mann: 112, 95, 112, 86, 87, 93
Kelly Leak: 98,88, 88, 59, 93, 85
Ju Jitsu Jax: 97, 90, 66, 75

When adjusting for those things, only one horse really "jumped" in that race, the winner. The difference from the previous top:

This One's for Phil: +27
You Lucky Mann: 0
Kelly Leak: +5
Ju Jitsu Jax: +7

Keep in mind, under normal circumstances, the winner was the least likely to improve with 8 starts under his built. The others make a lot more sense considering fewer races and/or surface switches.

[Kasept]

Thx CJ. That's a great analysis and big help to understanding the performances.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Thx CJ. That's a great analysis and big help to understanding the performances.

Does this mean you are in full accord that Dutrow's miraclous "move up" isn't exactly explictable with sheet interpetation? Horse made a bunch of starts and had a decent race or two and now low and behold is running better G1 beyers... maybe the horse just likes South Beach or maybe it was the South Beach diet?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Does this mean you are in full accord that Dutrow's miraclous "move up" isn't exactly explictable with sheet interpetation? Horse made a bunch of starts and had a decent race or two and now low and behold is running better G1 beyers... maybe the horse just likes South Beach or maybe it was the South Beach diet?

You have to be so cynical? Maybe Rickie is just THAT good.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

You have to be so cynical? Maybe Rickie is just THAT good.

I would assume DT has contacted him to do some "THAT" special training...Why not deal with the very very best? Don't answer that one Steve its loaded

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Kasept

You have to be so cynical? Maybe Rickie is just THAT good.

i hear he has a good dentist...